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File: 110196_aacbr_02.txt
Page: 02
Total Pages: 4

TO APPROXIMATELY 18KTS.  HIGH PRESSURE (1024MB) CENTERED AT 27N/44E
FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.  WINDS BEHIND THE TROF WERE GUSTING
TO OVER 30 KTS OVERNIGHT.  THE DAMP GROUND KEPT SAND FROM BEING RAISED
AND THE RESULT WAS GENERALLY GOOD VISIBILITY IN THESE AREAS.  THE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE TROF RANGED FROM 5 TO 10 CELSIUS
DEGREES.  ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1023MB) WAQS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN MED (33n/29e).  fURTHER WEST, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER (1007MB)
WAS LOCATED AT 39N/14E, ACCOMPANIED BY 15 KT WINDS AND
RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS.  THE 00Z FNOC RUN INITIALIZED WELL BASED ON THE
MODEL'S POSITION OF THE TROF OVER SA AND THE LOW IN THE MED.
HOWEVER, SFC WND SPEEDS WERE UNDERFORECAST BY APPROX. 10KTS.  OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS, THE TROF OVER THE SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH, LYING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE PENINSULA BY EOP.  WINDS ALONG THE PERSIAN GULF COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AS THE EXTREME TEMP AND PRES CONTRASTS BEHIND THE TROF
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY GOOD CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AID FOG FORMATION IN THE UAE, AND SONE PATCHES KILL ALSO FORM INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN SA AND IN TUE TIGRIS/EUPURATES VALLEY THERE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. IN THE MED, THE SYSTEM
NEAR SICILY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT APPROX 12KTS, REACHING 35N/28E BY
EOP AND BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED WINDS, CLOUDINESS, AND
CONVECTION.
2. PAR: B: SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 16/00Z
                      POINT I        POINT 2      POINT 3 -
	        (26N/52E)      (22N/64E)    (18N/40E)
TEMP (C)       	  21                   24              27
WAVE DIR     320                  040            130
PERIOD SEC     4                      4                4
HEIGHT FT        4                      4                4
3.  (u)  PART C;  METSAT DISCUSSION:  PROMINENT FEATURE OVR THE AOR ON
THE LATEST DMSP IMAGERY IS THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL SA FROM THE
WRN ARABIAN MTNS AT 22N/40E TO SRN IRAN 25N/65E.  CLOUDINESS THRU
THIS FLOW ORIGINATES W/THE RED SEA TROF PROVIDING LLVL CONVRGENCE
AND MOISTURE THAT IS TEN LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY OVR THE MTNS TO FORM
ACAS.  RADIATION FOG IN CNTRL SYRIA AND IRAQ DVLPD IN AREAS THAT RCVD
PCPN W/IN THE LAST 48HRS, W/SOME ADVECTION OCCURING IN THE
TIGRIS/EUPHRATEST VALLEY UNDER NW FLOW.  DTNSW AREA OF STS AND SC HAS
WEDGED ITSELF AGAINST THE ZAGROS MTNS ALONG THE IRAQ/IRAN BORDER
ASSOCIATED W/AN ELONGATED TROF AT 850MB, ALL THAT REMAINS OF A CLOSED
LOW THAT TRAVERSED IRAQ YESTERDAY.   850MB TROF AND CLOUDINESS XTNDS
FROM THE SRN COAST OF THE CASPIAN SEA SWRD ALNG 50E TO THE CNTRL
PERSIAN GULF.  CAA OVR THE NRN GULF IS FORMING CLOSED CELL SC AND
FURTHER ADVECTING THE SC CLOUDINESS SOUTHEASTWARD TO QATAR.  BKN AREAOF CLOSED CELL SC IN ARABIAN SEA S OF 15 N FORMED FROM LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTERWARD W/OUT FURTHER
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
 4. PART D: AREA FORECASTS
A.           AREA 10 (ALL OF SA, YEMEM, UAE AND OMAN)-
 WINDS:           NERN 3301O/15KT ISOLD G25KT; 33012KT APT 15Z

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