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File: 110196_aacfn_03.txtMED AS THE PVA MAX IS BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE SE INTO THE TROF, SLIGHTLY DEEPENING THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. MAX WNDS AT 300MB ARE EXCEEDING 120KTS W/ THIS MAX/S/WV. THE FNOC MODEL VERIFIED WELL W/ THE PVA MATCHING WELL W/ UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVR SWRN TURKEY AND THE VORT LOBE IN CNTRL SA. ON THE SFC, LOW AND HIGH PLACEMENT WERE EXCELLENT. HOWEVER JUST BEFORE THIS PRODUCT'S ISSUE TIME THE SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY WX PRODUCER (MAJOR S/WV) STARTED MOVG RAPIDLY THRU THE NWRN AOR IMPROVING THE AREA QUICKLY AFTER THE TS/RASH MVD OUT. AFTER A THOUROUGH RE-ANALYSIS IT WAS FOUND THAT THE GSM MODEL HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. IT SHOWS THIS ~ CURRENT S/WV TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV DROPPING - FROM THE NW INTERACTING W/ A S/WV IN THE STJ BY THE END OF THIS 1ST PERIOD. DURG THIS FCST PERIOD, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO CON T TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE SERN MED COUNTRIES AND JUST N OFF THE IRADI/SA BORDER APPROACING KUWAIT BY EOR. THE VORTICITY WILL - INTENSIFY AS THE LONG WV TROF DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY W/ THE INTERACTION - MENTIONED ABV. SOME IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE MOVES THRU IRAQ AND NRN,SA BY EOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LOWER CIGS IN THE N AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY RASH AND ISOLD TS. ON THE SFC, FOLLOWING THE STREAMLINE PROGS, GUSTY WNDS W/ BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR IN THE ADVANCE OF THIS SYS ALONG NERN SA CAUSED BY A LINE OF CONVERGENCE OVR CNTRL SA FEEDING INTO THE LOW. FOLLOWING PASSAGE XPCT A WND SHIFT AND ??? WNDS AND MINIMAL BLOWING DUST INTO THE NEXT PERIOD............ 2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 20/12Z. (26N/52E) (22N/64E) (18N/49E) TEMP(C) 22 24 26 WAVE DIR 090 030 130 - PERIOD SEC 4 4 4 HEIGHT FT 2 3 4 3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: DMSP PICTURES FROM 18Z WERE USED FOR THIS DISCUSSION. MOISTURE FROM - THE STJ HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12HRS CVR NRN AFRICA W/ A BKN DECK OF CI/CS MOVG EGYPT. THE 5OOMB VORT MAX IS MOVG INTO WRN IRAQ AND NRN SAUDI ARABIA AND IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS TSTMS W/ MAX TOPS 350. THE NEW 12Z FNOC CHARTS INITIALIZED WELL (SEE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION) W/ THE POSITION OF THE VCRT MAX OVR SYRIA. THERE'S A BKN DECK OF AC/AS IN CNTRL SA CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF AS THE 700MB TROF PUSHES E. THE RED SEA CONVERGENCE ZONE IS OLD FREE THIS PERIOD. A DECK OF SC IS EVIDENT ALONG THE MTNS OF ETHIOPIA DUE TO LLVL MOISTURE BEING PUMPED IN FROM THE RED SEA. SCT TO BKN SC/CU IS ALONG THE HAJAR MTNS DUE TO THE ON SHORE FLOW. A S/WV OVR NRN AFRICA WILL ADVECT MID/HIGH CIGS INTO EGYPT AND NWRN SA W/ THE STJ IN THIS PERIOD. 4 PART D: AREA FORECASTS A. AREA 10: WINDS: NWRN: 22012KT; 3001S/20KT AFT 08Z NERN: 16010KT; 21012/18KT AFT OSZ; ISOLD G2SKT 07Z TO 15Z - CNTRL/ERN: 1S010KT; 16012/18KT AFT 06Z; 23012/18KTAFT 18Z SRN: 1S006KT; 16012KT AFT 06Z; G18 08Z TO 15Z WRN: VRBOSKT; 30012/18KT AFT lOZ VSBY/WX: 7
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