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U N C L A S
SWO BULLETIN 45
FOXX31 XXXX 261200
KOCK JOAF #373 VALID: 26/1200Z TO 27/1200Z FEB 91
1. PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK: THE OOZ LAWC STILL
SHOWED A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE PTRN, BUT FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO CLARIFY
MORE. A 1010MB LOW IS STILL PRESENT IN SERN TURKEY (QUASI-STATNRY)
AT 38N/36E, W/A TROF XTNDG WSW TO 34N/20E. ANOTHER TROF XTNDS SSW TO
26N/31E. THE LOW IN SYRIA HAS MOVD ESE TO 34N/41E, FILLING BY 2MB
(1015M8). TWO TROFS XTND FROM THIS LOW. THE FIRST XTNDS SSE TO 28N/
43E. THE SECOND XTNDS ESE TO 32N/47E AN AREA OF TROFG XTNDS THRU
NRN SA W/MULTIPLE LOW CNTRS. THIS FEATURE LINES UP WELL WITH THE
OOZ THKNS CHART ON THE PRTMARY MODEL. IT IS LOCATED BTWN 16N/~4E,
22N/37E, AND 37N/S7E. THE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED IN N/CNTL SA ON THE
PREVIOUS JOAF HAS TRAVLD ALC THIS BNDRY TO 29N/48E. FILLING BY ~MBS
(1~1SMB). ANOTHER LOW FORMED IN ITS PLACE AT 26N/44E (1013MB), AS A
RESULT OF S/WV ACTIVITY. THE THIRD LOW IS AT 37NS7E (1021MB). THE
TROF/FRNT BNDRY HAS BEEN SLWLY MOVG SE PRODUCING TSTM/HVY RASH DUE TO
LLVL CONY, AND UPPER LVL S/WV,S. THE LLVL CONV IS ALSO CAUSING STRNG
3CONDS.  THIS FEATURE, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW IN WRN TO NRN IQ,
MIRRORS THE UPPR LVL OCCLUSION, WILL CONT TO MIGRATE SE DURG THIS PD.
CONTD TSTM/RASH ACTIVITY IS XPCT, AND WILL SPREAD THRU CNTL, ERN,
 SERN SA BY PD'S END. BLOWING/SUSPENDED SAND/DUST IS ALSO XPCTD
TO CONT. RIDGING FROM THE NE (IRAN/PAK/AFGH) WAS ALSO SHOWN ON THE
OOZ LAWC. A CNTR WAS LOCATED IN SA AT ZOM/43E (1024MB~ A
JIGH WAS ALSO CNTRD AT 28N/41E (1019MB). THE UPPR LVL RIDGE OVR THE
ERN AOR IS CONTG TO MOVE E, AND WILL PULL CLDS OUT OF THE NRN AOR.
FINAL S/WV WILL MOVE INTO AND THRU NRN SA/SRN IQ DURG LATTER HALF
RD BRINGING MID AND UPPR LVL CIGS, PRECIP, AND GUSTY SFC WNDS ONE
LAST TIME. BY MORNG, PRECIP AREAS ARE XPCT TO GIVE RISE TO XTNSIVE
FG/ST IN NRN/NERN SA AND SRN/SERN IQ.
2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 27/OOZ
                    (26N/52E)          (22N/64E )     (18N/40E)
 TEMP(C)            36                 24                    27
 WAVE DIR           130               030                 150
 PERIOD SEC          4                  8                     4
 HEIGHT FT             3                5                     4
3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: THE NIGHTMARE CONTS. STJ AND PFJ CONT
THEIR XPLOSIVE INTERACTION OVR THE CNTL AOR. ISOTACH ANAL AND METEO
SAT WV IMAGERY INDICATES THE PFJ AXIS BCMG ORGANIZED OVR SRN ITALY ON
A SW TREK OVR CNTL LYBIA, ROUNDG THE BASE OF THE TROF AT 25N/30E.
JET CON TS NE OVR XTRM NW SA, DIRECTLY OVR BAGHDAD, FINALLY XITNG THE
AOR INTO NW IRAN. MEANWHILE STJ AXIS BEGINS OVR W. AFRICA NEAR 15W/
15N, ON AN ENE TRAJECTORY TO 22N/15E WHERE THE FLOW BCMS ZONAL AND
CLDS DSPT ON IR IMAGERY. STJ CLDS BCM APARENT AGAIN AT 22N/31E AS
FLOW BCMS ACTIVE ON LEE OF L/WV TROF OVR CNTL ECYPT. INDUCED JET
MA`'MA BTWN JETS OF 110KTS NEAR 24N/30E CON TS TO PROVIDE AREA OF
DI _UENCE ALCFT, CREATING A STARTING POINT FOR LYRD CLDS THAT STREAM
ACROSS THE CNTL AOR. STJ REACHES AXIS APEX OVR CNTL SA NEAR 26N/4SE,

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