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UN C L A S
  W0 BULLETIN 45
  OXX31 VXXX 271200
OCK JOAF #37S                VALID: 27/1200Z TO 28/1200Z FEB 91
 . PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK: SFC ANAL AT 27/OOZ
REVEALED A VAGUE PTRN DUE TO LACK OF DATA, BUT W/CAREFUL ANLYS AND
 SATELLITE IMAGERY WE FOUND THE DIFUSE FRNTL SYS LOCATED BTWN A lOllMB
LOW AT 31N/47E, AND 27N/38E.  THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVG SE, AND THIS
 JRNG GUSTY SE WNDS WERE RPTD IN THE NRN GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT.
 HE SYS IS XPTD TO CON T SE WITH THE LOW MOVG THRU THE GULF. GUSTY
 FC WNDS ARE AGAIN XPCTD FOR NERN AND ERN SAr THE SYS STILL SHOWED
 HKNS SUPPORT ON THE PRIMARY MODEL. ALSO THE OOZ SFC PRESS PANEL
 LIGNED WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW. A WARM FRNT XTNDS FRM
THIS LOW E TO 32N/53E WHERE IT BCMS A TROF XTNDG NNE TO A LOW OF UNKN
 ITENSITY IN THE SERN CASPIAN SEA. THE FIRST LOW ALSO HAD A TROF
 TNDC NNW TO 36N/45E, THEN WNW TO A lOllMB LOW AT 37N/34F. A TROF
 TNDD OUT OF THIS LOW SSW TO 27N/29E. HIGH PRESS WAS RIDGING INTO
THE NWRN AOR FRM EGYPT' AND A HIGH WAS CNTRD AT 3SN/40E (101SMB).
  125KT JET MAX IS MOVG THRU THE NRN AOR THIS PD, LINING UP WELL W/A
/WV ON THE VORT PROGS.  AS THE WAVE ENTERS INTO ERN IQ/KU/NERN SA,
IT WILL COME UNDER THE DIFLUENCE AREA 8TWN THE STJ AND PFJ. THIS,
 COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANT MSTR REMAINC IN THAT REGION, WILL SET THE
 TAGE FOR MORE CONVCTV ACTIVITY THIS AFTRNOON AND EVE. THIS WILL ADD
 ITIONAL MSTR WHICH WILL CAUSE CON T FG/ST PROBS FOR NRN SA/SRN IQ/
 J.  MOST OF THE CLDS ASSOC W/THE FRNT HAVE MOVD THRU SA OVRNT AS THE
 PPR LVL S/WVS MOVD RPDLY THRU. THEREFORE, ONLY CUSTY WNDS ARE ASSOC
 /THE FRNTL MOVMT, W/THE SIG WX BEING RESTRCTD TO THE VCNTY OF THE
 OW AND THE CULF CST. THE THKNS PROGS VERIFY THE FRNTS MOVMT, AND AS
 IT DESCENDS INTO SERN SA IT WILL MODIFY RPDLY AND WNDS WILL DECR.
 . SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 28/OOZ
    	                (26N/52E)     (22N/64E)           (18N/4OE)
  TEMP(C)                   23            24                  27
  AVE DIR                 160           360                 360
  PERIOD SEC               4		4	        6
  EIGHT FT                    4           3                   3
     PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:  PTJ AND STJ ARE STILL INTERACTG W/ONE
ANOTHER OVR CNTL AOR. ISOTACH AND WV ANALYSIS REVEAL MAIN PORTION OF
 FJ FLOWS FRM GULF OF SIDRA W OVR JORDAN BEFORE TURNG NE OVR CNTL IO,
 ITO THE AOR OVR XTRM NW IRAN. STJ FLOWS FRM W AFRICA ENE TO RIDGE
 PEX AT 28N/4SE. JET INDUCED MAX OF 12SKTS WAS ANALYSED OVR SRN
 GYPT AT 27N/34E, A RESULTANT OF OVRLYING JETS. THIS JET MAX DOESN'T
 DVCT W/JET FLOW, BUT RATHER REACTS TO JET MAX'S TRVSG THRU THE L/WV
TRN.  WK BRANCH OF PFJ OVR ERN EUROPE ATTEMPTS TO HEAD S INTO MED.
/WV TROF OVR ERN MED THAT XTNDS FRM BLACK SEA SW INTO ERN LIBYA
 SLOWLY MOVG E. EVIDENT BY DECRG CONVCTV ACTINITY IN ERN MED. THIS
 ONVCTN FORMED ALO SFC TROFG E OF L/WV TROF. CON VCTN ADVCTO W/LLVL
 TEERG BUT DOESN'T CROSS THE COASTAL MTNS OF SYRIA. MID LVL MSTR FRM
STM DEBRIS CONTS TO ADVCT NE FURTHR E; CTRL IQ HAD RAD FOG FRM THE
 N - LAKES SE ALG THE T/E RIVER VALLEY TO THE KTO. FOG DSPTD BY 09Z, 
AND WAS REPLACED BY SCT SC.  KTO AND SERN IQ UNDER MOSTLY MID LVL









 ND WAS REPLACED 8Y SCT SC. KTO AND SERN IO UNDER MOSTLY MID LVL

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