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File: 120596_aacoc_02.txt
Page: 02
Total Pages: 4

 PERIOD. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF DAMPENING CLD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE
 CNTRL AOR AND ENHANCING CLD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE ERN AOR. THERE ARE
 A FEW S/WVS THAT ARE COING THE MOVE THRU THE AOR THIS PERIOD WITH
 ONE IN THE PFJ AND ONE THRU THE STJ. THE PFJ S/WV WILL AGAIN
 PRODUCE NVMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY, BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE LIMITED TO
 XTRM ERN/SERN IRAQ AND OVR IRAN AS THE UPR LVL DIFLUENCE IS LOCATED
 THERE. THE S/WV IN THE STJ MOVO THRU NRN EGYPT THEN INTO CNTRL SA
 WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS AND RASH ALG THE ERN COAST OF SA AND INTO
 THE PERSIAN GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTY SFC WNDS AS THE LOWS MOVE
 SE ALG THE GULF COAST.
 2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 21/00Z
		 (26N/52E) 	(22N/64E)	 (18N/40E)
 TEMP(C) 	22 		24 		26
 WAVE DIR	 030		 030		 130
 PERIOD SEC	 4 		4		4
 HEIGHT FT	4 		3 		4
 5. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: 
 L/WV RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR NE AFRICA ALG 25E. STJ CI
 BEGINS N W AFRICA W/B ROAD CI SHIELD XTNDG FM 15W THRU 10E. S/WVS
 IN FLOW CONTINUE TO PUMP MID LVL MSTR INTO RIDGE W/SOME BKN ACAS
 REACHING CNTRL EGYPT, W/THIN BKN CI XTNDG FURTHER INTO CNTRL SA ON
 A SERLY TREK TOWARDS THE L/WV TROF VCNTY 47E. MEANWHILE, A BRANCH
 OF THE PFJ MIRRORS THE STJ PATH FM GREECE ACRS SWRN TURKEY INTO CNTRL
 IRAQ, WHERE THE FLOW DIVERGES. THIS DIFLUENT AREA OVR THE ERN TWO
 THIRDS OF IRAQ, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE S/WV ACTIVITY FM JET
 INTERACTION, DVLRD FEW TSTMS MT 400 OVR THE LAST 12HRS. THIS
 ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE STJ
 CONTINUES TO CROSS THE CNTRL AOR HGT FALLS RESULTED UNDER THE
 THIS DIFFLUENT AREA. IN NRN IRAQ, DEEPENING L/WV TROF CAUSING IT TO
 RETROGRADE FM SSE AT 00Z TO 47E PROJECTED FOR 12Z. THIS WILL CAUSE
 TSTMS TO MOVE MORE SEWRD WITH TIME. A CLEARING LINE DVLPD AT APPROX
 00Z, XTNDG FM 55N/40E TO 25N/47E, REFLECTG THE SPD CONVERGENCE ALOFT
 AS THE STJ WNDS INCREASE. THIS LINE HAS MOVD APPROX 60NM
 EWRD DURING THE LAST SHRS. AS THE VORT MINS AND MAXS TRAVRS EWRD
 THRU THE AOR IN THE STJ FLOW, BRKS WILL DEVLR ALG THE ERN ONDRY OF
 SKN CLDNS. BKN ACAS CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN CNTRL SA, WITH
 RECCURING S/WV ENHANCEMENT DURING THE LAST 24HRS.
 4 PART D: AREA FORECASTS
 A. AREA 10: 
 WINDS: NWRN: 30015/20KT
 	NERN: 21012/18KT ISOLD G25KT TIL 15Z
 CNTRL/ERN: 23012/18KT ISOLD G30KTS; 28008KT AFT 00Z
 SRN: 16012KT ISOLD G25 TIL 15Z
 WRN: 30012/18KT; VRB05KT 00Z TO 06Z
 SERN: 29008KT; 20015/25KT AFT 06Z
 VSBY/WX: 7
 NWRN: 6HZ
 NERN: ISOLD 2SA TIL 18Z; 3TS/RASH VCNTY 00Z TIL 10Z
 
 ERN: ISOLD 2SA TIL 18Z; 3TS/RASH 00Z TIL 10Z
 

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