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File: 120596_aacoc_02.txtPERIOD. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF DAMPENING CLD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE CNTRL AOR AND ENHANCING CLD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE ERN AOR. THERE ARE A FEW S/WVS THAT ARE COING THE MOVE THRU THE AOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONE IN THE PFJ AND ONE THRU THE STJ. THE PFJ S/WV WILL AGAIN PRODUCE NVMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY, BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE LIMITED TO XTRM ERN/SERN IRAQ AND OVR IRAN AS THE UPR LVL DIFLUENCE IS LOCATED THERE. THE S/WV IN THE STJ MOVO THRU NRN EGYPT THEN INTO CNTRL SA WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS AND RASH ALG THE ERN COAST OF SA AND INTO THE PERSIAN GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTY SFC WNDS AS THE LOWS MOVE SE ALG THE GULF COAST. 2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 21/00Z (26N/52E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E) TEMP(C) 22 24 26 WAVE DIR 030 030 130 PERIOD SEC 4 4 4 HEIGHT FT 4 3 4 5. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: L/WV RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR NE AFRICA ALG 25E. STJ CI BEGINS N W AFRICA W/B ROAD CI SHIELD XTNDG FM 15W THRU 10E. S/WVS IN FLOW CONTINUE TO PUMP MID LVL MSTR INTO RIDGE W/SOME BKN ACAS REACHING CNTRL EGYPT, W/THIN BKN CI XTNDG FURTHER INTO CNTRL SA ON A SERLY TREK TOWARDS THE L/WV TROF VCNTY 47E. MEANWHILE, A BRANCH OF THE PFJ MIRRORS THE STJ PATH FM GREECE ACRS SWRN TURKEY INTO CNTRL IRAQ, WHERE THE FLOW DIVERGES. THIS DIFLUENT AREA OVR THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF IRAQ, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE S/WV ACTIVITY FM JET INTERACTION, DVLRD FEW TSTMS MT 400 OVR THE LAST 12HRS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE STJ CONTINUES TO CROSS THE CNTRL AOR HGT FALLS RESULTED UNDER THE THIS DIFFLUENT AREA. IN NRN IRAQ, DEEPENING L/WV TROF CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE FM SSE AT 00Z TO 47E PROJECTED FOR 12Z. THIS WILL CAUSE TSTMS TO MOVE MORE SEWRD WITH TIME. A CLEARING LINE DVLPD AT APPROX 00Z, XTNDG FM 55N/40E TO 25N/47E, REFLECTG THE SPD CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE STJ WNDS INCREASE. THIS LINE HAS MOVD APPROX 60NM EWRD DURING THE LAST SHRS. AS THE VORT MINS AND MAXS TRAVRS EWRD THRU THE AOR IN THE STJ FLOW, BRKS WILL DEVLR ALG THE ERN ONDRY OF SKN CLDNS. BKN ACAS CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN CNTRL SA, WITH RECCURING S/WV ENHANCEMENT DURING THE LAST 24HRS. 4 PART D: AREA FORECASTS A. AREA 10: WINDS: NWRN: 30015/20KT NERN: 21012/18KT ISOLD G25KT TIL 15Z CNTRL/ERN: 23012/18KT ISOLD G30KTS; 28008KT AFT 00Z SRN: 16012KT ISOLD G25 TIL 15Z WRN: 30012/18KT; VRB05KT 00Z TO 06Z SERN: 29008KT; 20015/25KT AFT 06Z VSBY/WX: 7 NWRN: 6HZ NERN: ISOLD 2SA TIL 18Z; 3TS/RASH VCNTY 00Z TIL 10Z ERN: ISOLD 2SA TIL 18Z; 3TS/RASH 00Z TIL 10Z
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