CENTAF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM

File: 970207_aadbc_003.txt
Page: 003
Total Pages: 3
IMMEDIATE

PAGE 03 OF 03 RUCJACC 1013 			003599              09/l716Z
INVESTMENTS IN REDUCING IT5 DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN SOURCES OF
ASSISTANCE.
E. 	(U) SINCE THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, THE USE OF CHEMICAL AGENTS
SUGGESTS THAT UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS NOW PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
IRAQI POLITICAL-MILITARY THINKING. BAGHDAD, IN PARTICULAR SADDAM
HUSSEIN, IS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF INSECURITY AND
AGGRESSIVENESS.   IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY IRAN, SYRIA, AND
RECENTLY ISRAEL, HAVE ALWAYS BEEN ADVERSARIES TO THE HEGEMONIC
ASPIRATIONS OF IRAQ'S ARAB DOMINATION. THUS, IRAQ'S LEADERS HAVE
SOUGHT THE CAPABILITIES NEEDED TO ENSURE THEIR STATUS AS A
RESPECTED REGIONAL POWER.
2.  	 (U)   IRAQ'S CHEMICAL PROGRAM
A. 	IRAQ APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS'
PROGRAM IN THE 1960'S.   BY 1985, IRAQ WAS PRODUCING A NUMBER OF
CHEMICAL AGENTS, INCLUDING MUSTARD GAS AND TWO DIFFERENT TYPES OF
NERVE AGENTS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED A CHEMICAL
AGENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF 700 TONS PER YEAR. SOME OTHER
ESTIMATES HAVE THE PRODUCTION CAPACITY 20 TIMES LARGER.
B. 	THE CHEMICAL AGENT USED MOST COMMONLY DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ
WAR WAS MUSTARD GAS.   BY 1985, AT A SMALL PLANT IN SAMARRA, THE
IRAQIS WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ABOUT 50 TONS OF MUSTARD GAS PER
YEAR. THOUGH ETHYLENE IS THE BASE ELEMENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF
MUSTARD GAS, IT IS THIODIGLYCOL THAT IS THE MOST COMMON PRECURSOR.
INITIALLY, IRAQ HAD TO RELY ON WESTERN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES
FOR THIS IMPORTANT PRECUSOR AGENT. HOWEVER, IRAQ NO LONGER RELIES -
ON IMPORTS OF THIODIGLYCOL, DUE TO SELF SUFFICIENCY. ABOUT ONE TON
OF THIODIGLYCOL MAKES ONE TON OF MUSTARD GAS. THE OTHER KEY
INGREDIENT, HYDROCHLORIC ACID, CAN BE OBTAINED ON THE OPEN MARKET.
C. 	IN THE EARLY 1980'S, AND WITH THE HELP OF WEST EUROPEAN
COMPANIES' PILOT PLANTS AT SAMARRA WERE CAPABLE OF MAKING LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF NERVE AGENTS. THE TWO AGENTS PRODUCED AT THIS TIME WERE
SARIN AND TABUN. WHILE IRAQ MAINTAINS IT HAS NEVER EMPLOYED NERVE
AGENTS, A U.N. INVESTIGATION CONCLUDED THAT TADUN WAS PROBABLY USED
AGAINST IRANIAN FORCES IN EARLY 1987.   IT IS ALSO BELIEVED THAT
NERVE AGENTS WERE USED AGAINST THE KURDISH TOWN OF HALABJA IN MARCH
1988. THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST A DELIBERATE EFFORT
ON IRAQ'S PART TO PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE NERVE AGENTS, BUT THE
PRECURSOR CHEMICALS AS WELL. THIS IMPLIES LIMITED EFFORTS BY THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO CONTROL THE PROLIFERATION OF CHEMICAL AND
NERVE WEAPONS.
3. 	(U) CONCLUSIONS
A.	IRAQ'S USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR,
COUPLED WITH THE EVER INCREASING PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES AND
CAPACITIES, INDICATE THE WILLINGNESS OF IRAQ'S LEADERSHIP TO EMPLOY
THESE WEAPONS. THE CONCERN TO U.S. FORCES IS GENUINE, AND SHOULD NOT
BE CONSIDERED MINIMAL FOR THOSE TROOPS LOCATED IN FORWARD POSITIONS.
THE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE THREAT IS CONSIDERED MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
BT
#1013
NNNN