CENTAF INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY 91-022 AS OF 271000Z JAN91

File: 970312_aaddz_03.txt
Page: 03
Total Pages: 3
    








    SMN 146424

    RHIEFAA/FRENCH LO DHAHRAN


    SUBJ: CENTAF DESERT STORM INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY 9l-022 AS OF 271000Z
    JAN 91 (U)
    MSGID/INTSUM//

    PORTIONS FROM PAGE 3 - 13 WITHELD.NOT HEALTH RELATED
    

			[(B)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]	 IRAQ'S CMEMICAL PRODUCTION
    CAPABILITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED TO BE REDUCED [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)

			    IT IS UNLIKELY THAT HUSAYN WOULD BE ABLE TO
    COMPLETELY REPLENISH HIS PREWAR STOCK PILE.  HUSAYN WOULD APPEAR TO
    BE IN A "USE IT" OR 'LOSE IT" SITUATION.  CONSIDERING THE SHORT SHELF
    LIFE OF NERVE AGENTS (ASSESSED TO BE 4-6 WEEKS) AND HUSAYN'S RECENT 
    RHETORIC ACCUSING COALITION FORCES OF USING CHEMICALS ON BASRA, IT IS
    POSSIBLE THAT HE WILL ORDER CHEMICAL ATTACKS AGAINST COALITION FORCES
    AND POSSIBLY ISRAEL IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
    IF IRAQ HAS NOT MANAGED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF CHEMICAL AGENTS
    WITHIN THE LAST TWO MONTHS.  IN THIS CASE HIS STOCK PILE WOUILD 
    RAPIDLY BE NEARING THE END OF ITS SHELF LIFE.


      PORTIONS FROM PAGE 14 WITHELD.NOT HEALTH RELATED