INTSUM 01 13 JAN 91

File: 123096_aug96_decls1_0003.txt
Page: 0003
Total Pages: 4

Subject: INTSUM 01 13 JAN 91                                             

Unit: ARCENT      

Parent Organization: CENTCOM     

Box  ID: BX000464

Folder Title: INTELLIGENCE REPORTS JAN 91-2                                                                   

Document Number:         20

Folder Seq  #:         26


                                     UNCLASSIFIED                               5USC552(b)(l-,

            WITH LITTLE OR NO TREAD REMAINING. BONE OF THIS MAY BE DUE TO
            CARELESSNESS OR MAINTENANCE OR SUPPLY PRIORITIES. TIRE SHORTAGES
            MAY ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE HEAVY EQUIPMENT TRANSPORTERS (HETIS) IN
            THE IRAQI INVENTORY. APPROXIMATELY 1,000 OF 2,500 HET'S ARE OF
            GERMAN MANUFACTURE. THE TIRE SIZE 0 THESE RETIS IS UNUSUAL,, AND
            EARLIER THERE WERE APPARENT IRAQI ATTEMPTS TO OBTAIN LARGE
            QAUNTITIES OF THIS PARTICULAR TIRE SIZE. DESERT CONDITIONS RAVE
            BEEN SHOWN TO BE.ESPECIALLY DAMAGING TO MET TIRES. RECENTLYF
            ANOTHER LIMITATION HAS BEEN NOTEDO THE RELATIVELY SMALL TIRE SIZE ON
            THIS MODEL LIMITS OFF-ROAD CAPABILITY AND LARGER WHEEL SIZES CANNOT
            BE USED BECAUSE OF DESIGN LIMITATION. THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT RAPID
            MOVEMENT OF IRAQI TANKS WHERE THE GERMAN SET MUST BE USED TO
            TRANPORT TANKS/APC'S. (DIA IRAQ REGIONAL ITF 22062OZ JAN 91)


            9. (U) COMMANDI, CONTROL, AND COMMUNICATIONS: NSTR
            !O(U) (O ikig;6 !IM) TERRORISM*. CHANGES TO THE THREAT LEVELST THREAT
            CONDITIONS, AND TERRORIST GROUPS WILL BE PUBLISHED AS CHANGES OCCUR.
            THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGES DURING THIS REPORTING PERIOD.



            11. @EL MM) VULNERABILITIES: THE CURRENT DISPOSITION OF THE
            IRAQI REPUBLICAN GUARD HEAVY FORCES AND THEIR LOGISTICS IS A MAJOR
            VULNERABILITY TO THE IRAQI ARMY AT THIS TIME.



                                                                 CURRENTLY, THESI
            FORCES ARE EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE TO AIR ATTACK. AS PREVIOUSLY
            REPORTED, THE REPUBLICAN GUARDIS STATUS IN THE IRAQI MILITARY CAN
            ALSO BE A VULNERABILITY. SINCE THEY ARE CONSIDERED AN BLITZ FORCER
            THE EARLY DESTRUCTION OF THE RG HEAVY FORCES COULD HAVE A
            DEVASTATING EFFECT ON THE IRAQI MORALE.





  12(IJ)             PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTIONS

                A(U)               FORWARD AREA OF OPERATIONS/ THE IRAQI MOST
            PROBABLE COURSE OF ACTION CONTINUES TO BE TO CONDUCT A FORWARD
            DEFENSE IN DEPTH WITH POSSIBLE REPOSITIONING OF HEAVY FORCES WEST OF
            THE WADI AL BATIN. OTHER COURSES OF ACTION, IN ORDER OF LIKLIHOOD,
            ARE: CONDUCT SSM (POSSIBLE CHEMICAL), TERRORIST, AND SPECIAL FORCES
            ATTACKS, CONDUCT A SPOILING ATTACK AGAINST COALITION FORCES AND LOG
            SITES. IRAQ WILL POSSIBLY CONDUCT CONTINUED SSM AND/OR AIR ATTACKS
            AGAINST ISRAEL IN A FURTURE ATTEMPT TO BRING THEM INTO THE CONFLICT.
 5USC552(b)(1)
                B.                 REAR AREA OF OPERATIONS: THE PRIMARY THREAT TO
            THE ARCENT REAR AREA CONTINUE TO BE TERRORISM, SUPPORTED BY HUMINT
            COLLECTION. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONPIRNATION THAT ANY TERRORIST
            GROUPS ARE IN SAUDI ARABIA WITH MEANS TO CARRY OUT THEIR THREATS,
            ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HARASSMENT (BOMB THREATS) HAVE BEEN ON THE
ICLASSIFIFP)NCRBASE-

Document 4 f:/Week-31/BX000464/INTELLIGENCE REPORTS JAN 91-2/intsum 01 13 jan 91:1217961114573
Control Fields 17
File Room = aug96_declassified
File Cabinet = Week-31
Box ID = BX000464
Unit = ARCENT
Parent Organization = CENTCOM
Folder Title = INTELLIGENCE REPORTS JAN 91-2
Folder Seq # = 26
Subject = INTSUM 01 13 JAN 91
Document Seq # = 20
Document Date =
Scan Date =
Queued for Declassification = 01-JAN-1980
Short Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Long Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Permanent Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Non-Health Related Document = 01-JAN-1980
Declassified = 17-DEC-1996