File: 082696_d50028_084.txt
Page: 084
Total Pages: 274

Sunday --- Soviet Foreign Minister Schevardnadze says that the Soviet Union has not yet
reached a final decision to support a U.N. resolution that would authorize use of force in the
Middle Fast. (New York Times, November 19, p. Al.)

Analysts see four basic scenarios for hostilities with Iraq, all of which have contentious
ramifications. The four include:

1. Limited air assault: attack Iraqi air defenses, air bases, nuclear, biological and
chemical (NBC) warfare sites and then deliver an ultimatum. Such an attack could lead
to the fragile Gulf Alliance unraveling.

2. All-out air attack: basically, a continuation of the scenario above, but continue on to
attack dams, industrial sites, natural resource sites, etc. Many innocent civilians would
be killed in this scenario.

3. Major air and ground war: could end the war quickly with fewer civilian casualties,
but could result in many more casualties among the militaries on both sides.

4. The unexpected happens: Iraq launches preemptive chemical strike and seizes the
initiative on the battlefield. This could lead to large numbers of casualties on both sides.
(New York Times, November 19, p. A12.)

Soviet President Gorbachev says he believes the Persian Gulf crisis can be resolved without resorting
to war. (New York Times, November 19, p. A13.)

Saddam Hussein says that he will release all Western hostages by late March t'unless something mars
the atmosphere of peace," the official Iraqi press agency announced today. Analysts see this as an
attempt by Hussein to put pressure on President Bush to delay an offensive until all the~hostages are out.
Most analysts agree that the months of January, February and March would be the optimum months for
an offensive. (New York Times, November 19, p. Al3.)

President Bush finds only lukewarm support for his Persian Gulf policy from Chancellor Kohl while
the President is visiting in Gennany as part of his European and Persian Gulf trip. (New York Times,
November 19, p. Al-2.) {

A National Guard Nurse Captain is suing a private Santa Ana health clinic which fired her after a
term of active duty. She is suing to protect other reservists who leave their civilian jobs during the
Persian Gulf crisis. (Los Angeles Tim~, November 18, p. 3.)

2-58