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File: 082696_doc1_025.txt
The concern of the Western world with Israel. which was unlikely to he
___ about the proliferation of CW capa- achieved conventionally. Tbere are
bilities stems from three main types of five possible uses for Syria's chemi-
threat: cal weapons: (1) to offset Israeli con-
* Regional stability may be under- ventional superiority and blunt any
mined. A state with a large and com- Israeli attack into Syria: (2) to deter
prehensive CW capability could. in an Israeli nuclear. biological. or
theory launch a disarming first strike chemical (NBC) strike: (3) to deter
on an enemy. With sufficient stocks punitive raids by the Israeli Air
of munitions and delivery system& it Force (JAF) by threatening retalia-
would be possible to neutralize an tion in kind with missiles equipped
enemy's forces or even to wipe out with chemical warheads: (4) to sup-
their civilian population ifcities were port a possible limited Syrian offen-
targeted. The existence of this threat sive to retake the Golan Heights: and
undermines stability in two ways. (5) the Iraqi threat must not be over-
First. the temptation to preempt in a looked.
crisis is reinibrced. Second. the pres- In an offensive operation directed
sure to escalate. once engaged in a war. at northern Israel, Syria may adopt a
would be very strong. it may be seen strategy that would combine Soviet
as vital to win a quick~ decisive victory military doctrine with an exploita-
before CW is initiated. In the case of is- tion of lsrael's particular vulner-
raeL this raises the specter of the use of abilities. This strategy would involve
nuclear weapons.8 using long-range delivery systems
More broadly it must be remem- and persistent agents to neutralize
bered that many Middle Eastern airbases. command and control (C2)
states derive their cohesion and iden- and radar sites. Reserve mobilization
tity from the focal point of their capi- assembly points. and equipment storage
tal city Chemical weapons provide locations. Short-range systems would
)the means to wipe out these centers. deliver nonpersistent agents onto
~~ an event that would have tremen- frontline positions to facilitate rapid
dous political ramifications. quite breakthroughs by Syrian ground forces.
apart from the human cost. lAF deep penetration raids directed
* Last. Western governments are. of at targets in Syria would be deterred
course, concerned about the more di- by a threat to deliver agents onto ls-
rect threats that chemical weapons racli cities.
pose to their security. Proliferation if successful, this strategy would
does make it marginally more likely enable Syria to achieve its objective
that terrorists may use these weap- of retaking the Golan Heights before
ons.9 A more probable scenario, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were
however. is one in which Western able to complete mobilization and
military forces intervening in the re- present the international community
gion become the target of a chemical with a fait accompli. Furthermore. a
attack. 10 rapid Syrian penetration into the
There are other threats posed by heavily populated northern region of
proliferation. but these are the main Israel may discourage the IDF from
ones that have led Western govern- using air and artillery strikes against
ments to attempt to stem the process. Syrian forces.11
It is perceived that the more sophisti- In order to implement this strate-
cated regional CW capabilities be- gy, Syria would require a full range
come, the more they will threaten of chemical agents and delivery sys- Scenes from the Iran-Iraqi war (mp): Iraqi
Western interests. tems. troops take cover from air attack Prior to 1985,
Syria first obtained chemical Iran had a limited ability to produce chemical
CW Capabilities weapons from Egypt in 1973. The So- agents and relied mostly on conventional ord-
viet Union may have supplied a few nance.
Syria weapons but apparently not produc- Chemical weapons often followed bombing
) Syria started to acquire a CW ca- tion facilities. Syria has now devel- atiacks on Aurdish civilians in northern Iraq.
pability in the early l97Os. mainly to oped an indigenous research and
counter a perceived threat from Israel. production capability. Companies
In general. Syria~s president Hafez from France. West Germany, and
al-Assad may have seen the acquisi- Switzerland have been active in
tion of a CW capability as a way of helping to develop this capability.~ Manne Corps Gazene * July 1990
60
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