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File: 091896_sep96_decls3_0002.txt
Subject: OIL SPILL PREDICTIONS 22 FEB 91
Box ID: BX300017
Document Number: 8
Folder Title: OIL SPILL MSGS AND NOTES FEB- MAR 91 CNA 1633
Folder Seq #: 2
Unit: COM 7TH FLEE
Parent Organzation: CINCPACFLT
UNCLASSIFIED
$MN 009226
ALPHA, SOURCE AT 29-OJTN8 04@,I$Elo,$Plt,L,CONTINUOUS FM 19/1:27 TO
@8/12Z JANO TYPE LIGHT CRUDE, FORECAST WIND$,NYW TO NW 1-@20 KY$
THROUGH 22@FES, C)CRG TO NNW TO NW 8-i2 KTS 23-27 FES*
SLICK A@PHAT
22/12zg 27-55N9 04"$SF2, TO@27@5 5N9 049-10foA TO 27-20NI 049-4OF7
AT ABU-ALI, THEN COASTAL Tfl'27-5SN9 04@SSE2. BEACHED OIL NORTk'TO
eB.O$NS.
23/1?Zi 27@45N$ M49-OOE3. TO 27-45NB 049-i@5E?*,TO 27@20NI 149-40EY
AT ABU-ALI, THEN COASTAL TO'27-4SN9 0)49-OOF3'. BEACHED OIL NORTH TO
ABU ALI AND 28-SSNS 6 *#-))3) 59
?4@i2Z_TO RT/12ZI gLiCK STWN,
i9-5)8 3 ?52, 2-SNM OFFSHORE. ONLY,@TGHT SHEENS POSSIBLE TO ROUND
ABU AL; THROUGH. PT FF13 IRT NW WINDS.
2* @ FOLLOWING UPDATED PREDICTTONS,PPCVIDED TRT REFS-8 AND-P.
SLICK BRAVO'. SOURCES At 29-4iN§ 04@49FS,AND 29-47N2,048-4$E4
$PILL ASSUMED CONTINUOUS FM 04/i2Z FES Tt4RnUGH.ECP,. TYPE-LTGR; CRUDE.
FORECAST WINDS NNW TO NW 15-20 KTS THROUGH 22 FEB,;DCRG TO NNW To NW
8-i2 K*s 23PL. FERO
$L,lC@ AR A V03
22/1221 SLICK EXTENDS FM SOURCE BNG 150 DEG T TO;2i@SON4', WIDTH
APER(IX r8-12NM* 7@,4oN3, uinTH
23/i2Z: SLICK EXTENDS FM SOURCE ANG 150 DEG T To 2
APPROX 5-IONM.
24@12Z'l SLICK FXTENDS FM SOURCE BNG 150 DEG T@TO 2@3ON2, WIDTH
APPROX,10-15NM, I
25@12i: SLICK FXTENDS FM SOURCE RNG iSS DEG T +0;2iv-3ON2. Wi6T'H
APPROX I10-12NM,.
26@l?Z. 0 '2@-*@Oit. W
. SLICK,LrxrENDS FM SOURCE RNG 150) DEG T T rr)T
APPROX 8-t@NW,
27/12Zi SLICK FXTENDS FM SOURCE 8NG 150 DEG T @o@2@7-ioNo,
WIDTH
APPRVX iP-tSNM.
NOTEI MODEL FCST DOES NOT @CCOUNT FOR PERIODIC SPILLING BUT #SSUMES
PER REF C, BEYOND,60NM FM,$OUFCE EXPECT SLICK TO BE
DISCONTINUOUS AND SCATTERED PATCHES AND SHEENS.
3. @NARRATIVE'2 SLICK ALPHA FREDICTTONS REFLECT HIGHER PFOOLUTION
COASTLINE iMPLFMFNTEn THIS,DATE..NOR*H'FRLY.WIND COMPONENT CONTAINS
OIL BEHIND ABU ALI,AND PUSHES SLTC K ONSHORE THROUGH FOP*,SLICK BRAVO
ELONGATES TO BOUTHFAOT OVER TRIOE,WTTM MINOF..LATERAL,SPREADING,
4, (U) NOAA OVERFLIGHT INFO fOR 22 FF13 INDICATES HEAVY BEACH IMPACT$
13TWN TANAGI13 AND RAS AL GMARO HEAVY CO@CFNTRATTONSIOF 01@'CONTINUE TO
BLEED OFF BEACHES AT.-TANAGID, 01@ CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE IN_
EMBAYM
,FNTS SOUTH,OF TANAQIB*-ENT7RE PE19INSt,)LA RTWN RAS.AL OHAR AND
RAS AZ ZAWR,IMPACTED,WITH HEAVY CONCFNTRATIONS,OF OIL REFLOATING F"m
THE REACHES, HEAVY CONCENTRATIONS OF F'k'O -
I!TTNO DIL.REPORTED OTWN RAO
Ai,ZAt4R AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF ABU,IAL HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION$ ARE
LOCATED BTWN JINNAH ISLAND AND,DAWHAT ID D4FI, HEAVY :EUACHLT#MPACIS
CONTINUE ALONG ENTTRF SHORELINE OTWN A
,@ FAB AZ ZAWR NO 8 i 1. OIL
NORTH OF ABU ALI HAS-MOVED,@#ST 3 4KM.
So.CIJ)_RELEASED BY CnR HALL@//
DECL@OADR@/
BT
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Document 2 f:/Week-35/BX300017/OIL SPILL MSGS AND NOTES FEB- MAR 91 CNA 1633/oil spill predictions 22 feb 91:0913961612285
Control Fields 17
File Room = sep96_declassified
File Cabinet = Week-35
Box ID = BX300017
Unit = COM 7TH FLEE
Parent Organization = CINCPACFLT
Folder Title = OIL SPILL MSGS AND NOTES FEB- MAR 91 CNA 1633
Folder Seq # = 2
Subject = OIL SPILL PREDICTIONS 22 FEB 91
Document Seq # = 5
Document Date =
Scan Date = 03-SEP-1996
Queued for Declassification = 01-JAN-1980
Short Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Long Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Permanent Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Non-Health Related Document = 01-JAN-1980
Declassified = 13-SEP-1996