Potential for Exposure - Plume Analysis

The CIA was charged by the PAC [92] to develop predictions of the potential chemical fallout from the March 1991 demolition operations using, among other models, the U.S. Army's Chemical and Biological Defense Command's NUSSE4 transport and diffusion model. The results were briefed to the PAC on 9 July 1996, and on 2 August 1996, the CIA published a report on the Bunker 73 explosion on 4 March 1991. They concluded that the likely movement of vapor was to the east and northeast away from U.S. troops [93].

With regard to the "pit " explosion, the CIA encountered numerous modelling uncertainties, especially weather data, and could not come to any definitive conclusions. On 29 October 1996, DoD asked IDA to convene an independent panel of experts in meteorology, physics, chemistry, and related disciplines to review all of the modelling efforts available in order to determine the potential fallout from the "pit" area demolition. IDA provided a progress report on 18 December 1996. At that time, IDA reported:

.... continued concern about the inability to describe the many variables of the
agent-munition release mechanism. The panel agrees with the CIA that
"huge uncertainties remain" in the number of rockets present for destruction
and the number of those rockets destroyed. Among the other major variables
for which there remains much uncertainty are total quantity of agent released,
mechanism of release, and purity of agent [94].

The expert panel is working with DoD investigators and was briefed by CIA analysts in order to assess the model inputs and to determine whether the original dispersion and weather models (or any other models) may be effective in predicting the possible extent of chemical exposure as a result of the Khamisiyah demolitions.

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