TAB D – Analysis of CURR Scud Incident List

Release of an internal working paper to several veterans by the Armed Forces Center for Unit Records Research (CURR, formerly Center for Research of Unit Records – CRUR) led to accusations that the Department of Defense had understated the number of Scud firings against the KTO. The working paper listed Scud attacks against Coalition forces. We present below our analysis of this list. In analyzing the list, we based our judgments on careful review of the original operational references used by a CURR officer to construct the list. This material also served as a major resource in preparing the firing incident summaries in Section V. We have provided most of this material, sometimes in redacted form, for review through hyperlinks in the on-line version of this paper on our GulfLINK web site. The sources were too numerous to conveniently cite separately in this tab. Note that this tab and the original CURR compilation address only Scud strikes against the KTO and do not include those against Israel.

Table 8 that follows includes all of the original data from the CURR Scud attack list including date and time of the incident, the number of Scuds reportedly fired, the reported target location, and the CURR analyst’s remarks. To this CURR section of the table, we have added an entry number and our estimate of the time zone used in the list (coordinated universal time — Z time — or local time in the KTO — C time, which is three hours later than Z time). The right side of the table adds our assessment of each CURR entry. We placed CURR’s missile numbers from each entry into one or more columns based on careful analysis of whether the entry was the first in CURR’s list to cover a valid Scud attack on the KTO, a duplication of a valid previous entry, or data at variance with what we believe happened. These last nine columns include:

Figure 12 below summarizes the numbers of CURR entries that fell in each of the above categories. The 46 valid missile attacks against the KTO correspond to our assessment noted in Section V.

fig12s.gif (3492 bytes)

Figure 12.  Assessed categories of CURR Scud attack entries

Table 8.  Analysis of CURR Scud Incident Entries

CURR Working Paper Entries

Office of the Special Assistant Analysis

Serial Nbr

CURR Date

CURR Time

Time = Z or C

Scuds Fired

Reported Target Location

CURR Remarks

1st Ref

Clear Dupes

Likely Dupes

Dupe of

False Target

Wrong Salvo Size

No Match

Event # in Sec V

OSAGWI Remarks

1

17 Jan

0255

?

1

Dhahran

Impact                

1

       

None

Three hand logs reflected Scud activity early 1/17/91. Only coordinates put impact 13 miles NNW of Al Mishab. One log notes "could be artillery." No other sources note this activity. Probable false report based on incoming artillery (rockets?).

2

18 Jan

   

?

1

Dhahran

Destroyed                

1

       

None

Many sources reported this activity later determined to be reaction to false Patriot radar targets.

3

18 Jan

0030

Z

1

Dhahran

Not engaged    

1

   

#2

           

None

Refs cited by CURR also indicate successful engagement by Patriots - source of "not engaged" is unknown. Only time in refs was 0300 probably mis-entered as 0030. Further reflection of false target engagements.

4

18 Jan

0135-45

C

1

Dhahran

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#2

           

None

Refs note times from 0128Z to 0435 (presume C). Further reflection of false target engagements.

5

18 Jan

0225

Z

6

Dhahran

No impact                

6

       

None

Log notes at 0315 (C) Scuds on way to KKIA - most to Israel but possibly one to Dhahran. Another ref notes one Scud intercepted at 0145Z with six more (but no impacts) at 0225Z. Additional false targets.

6

18 Jan

0315

?

   

KKMC

           

1

#2

           

None

Ref indicates Scuds on way to KKIA - most to Israel but one may have hit W. KTO. Duplicative false target reflection.

7

18 Jan

0400-20

C

1

Dhahran

First Scud /intercepted    

1

   

#2

           

None

Ref notes first successful Scud intercept reported but later known as false target engagement.

8

18 Jan

0420

C

1

King Fadh IAP

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#2

           

None

Duplicative false target reflection based on time.

9

18 Jan

0450

C

1

Dhahran

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#2

           

None

Duplicative false target reflection based on time.

10

18 Jan

0500-8

C

1

Saudi (NFI)

Intercepted by Patriot    

1

   

#2

           

None

Duplicative false target reflection based on time.

11

18 Jan

0930

C

1

KKIA

Engaged by Patriot    

1

   

#2

           

None

Duplicative false target reflection. Time noted was for stand-up briefing next morning (ref was briefing slide).

12

20 Jan

   

?

3

Dhahran/ Riyadh

2 destroyed, 1 possible        

3

#14

           

1

One daily log ref'd - no times. Probable dupe of #14 (based on targets).

13

20 Jan

0235

?

6

Riyadh

5 destroyed/1 impact (tent)                

6

       

None

Probable false target engagements but cannot confirm. No verified Scud launches at noted time. Second of two refs notes no impact.

14

20 Jan

?

?

8+

Saudi (NFI)

Engaged/destroyed

8

               

1

   

1

Numerous sources echoed this initial corroborated activity aimed at Dhahran (two at about 1845Z and two at about 2145Z) and Riyadh (four at about 2145Z). "8+" interpreted as nine -- other sources suggest as few as 6 (2 Dhahran, 4 Riyadh). Best information indicates 4 at Dhahran, 4 at Riyadh, and 1 uncorrelated if total was 9.

15

20 Jan

?

?

1

Riyadh

Impact by Riyadh/minor dam    

1

   

#14

           

1

Single ref also was cited for #14. Confirmed duplication.

16

20 Jan

1843-50

Z

2

Dhahran

Destroyed    

2

   

#14

           

1

One ref notes firing against Dhahran about 1850Z and at Riyadh about 2200Z. Times confirm duplicative entry.

17

20 Jan

2139

Z

2

Dhahran

1 destroyed, 1 in water    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

18

20 Jan

2142-9

Z

4

Riyadh

Impact    

4

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

19

20 Jan

2150

Z

3

Dhahran

Debris fell/202 MI Bn billets    

3

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

20

20 Jan

2154-6

Z

2+2

Dhahran

1 Scud killed by Patriot    

3

   

#14

   

1

   

1

CURR ref's noted three vs. four (2+2) launches. Times confirm duplicative entry.

21

20 Jan

2200-2305

Z

3

Dhahran

Destroyed    

3

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

22

20 Jan

2200

Z

   

Riyadh

Destroyed    

1

   

#14

           

1

Unk nbr of Scuds -- assumed one. Times confirm duplicative entry.

23

20 Jan

2200-5

Z

4

Dhahran

All destroyed by Patriots    

4

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

24

20 Jan

2205

Z

2

King Fahd

Possible impact at King Fahd    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. King Fahd International Airport is near Dhahran. Times confirm duplicative entry.

25

20 Jan

2220

Z

2

Dhahran

Impact vic Dhah+G65ran IAP    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

26

20 Jan

2330

Z

2

King Fahd

Impact outside city (CIA)    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

27

21 Jan

0030

C

2

Al Kabor

       

2

   

#14

           

1

"Wrap-up" - Al Kabor is in Dhahran area. Cited sources reported in KTO local (C) time (C=Z+3).

28

21 Jan

0045

C

2

Dhahran

Destroyed    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

29

21 Jan

0045

C

1

Dhahran

Impact in water    

1

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

30

21 Jan

0045

C

4

Riyadh

Destroyed/12 minor injuries    

4

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

31

21 Jan

0050

C

1

Riyadh

Impact    

1

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

32

21 Jan

0057

C

2

Al Jubayl

Destroyed    

2

   

#14

           

1

Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.

33

21 Jan

0100

C

17

Riyadh

14 shot down/3 missing    

8

   

#14

9

       

1 and None

Large number not supported by other evidence. USARCENT indicated 14 kills because some Patriots went after Patriots.

34

21 Jan

0128

C

6

Riyadh

150ft SW of King Abdul Aziz/vacant lot/damage to sur[rounding] bldgs.    

6

   

#14

           

13

Further info on #14. Times indicate duplicative entry.

35

21 Jan

1918

Z

1

Al Jubayl

Into N. Arabian Gulf

1

                       

3

Several refs to this activity, some noting two Scuds. Weight of evidence supports one.

36

21 Jan

1920

Z

1

Dhahran

Landed in Gulf    

1

   

#35

           

3

Further info on #35. Times, water impact confirm duplicative entry.

37

21 Jan

2220-7

C

2

Dhahran

Short of Dhahran/fell in water    

1

   

#35

   

1

   

3

Second Scud unsubstantiated. Times and water impact indicate duplicative entry.

38

21 Jan

2225

C

2

Jubayl

Impact in water    

1

   

#35

   

1

   

3

Second Scud unsubstantiated. Times and water impact indicate duplicative entry.

39

22 Jan

0041

Z

3

Riyadh

2 kills.1 impact north

3

                       

13

Refs for this activity note two or three Scuds - weight of evidence supports three. Initial entry for this corroborated incident.

40

22 Jan

0047

Z

2

Riyadh

Engaged, debris shower    

2

   

#39

           

13

Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.

41

22 Jan

0143

Z

2

Riyadh

Probable kills        

2

#39

           

13

CURR time clearly wrong - refs they cited for this incident note times around 0043Z or 0343C. No sources indicate activity at CURR noted time (0143). Likely duplicative entry based on minutes after hour.

42

22 Jan

0340

C

3

Riyadh

3 destroyed    

3

   

#39

           

13

Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.

43

22 Jan

0340

C

3

Riyadh

Impact/no damage    

3

   

#39

           

13

Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.

44

22 Jan

0410

Z

3

Dhahran

2 detonated 50 mi W (desert)/1 in Gulf

3

                       

4

A few sources indicated four firings but consensus is three. First ref to this corroborated activity.

45

22 Jan

0410

Z

1

King Fahd IAP

Destroyed over KFIAP    

1

   

#44

           

4

Further info on #44 activity. King Fahd IAP is near Dhahran. Time confirms duplicative entry.

46

22 Jan

0410

Z

2

Qatar

Landed north in water    

2

   

#44

           

4

Further info on #44 activity. Dhahran is NW of Qatar. Time confirms duplicative entry.

47

22 Jan

0411

Z

3

E. Saudi

Not engaged    

3

   

#44

           

4

Further info on #44 activity. Time confirms duplicative entry.

48

22 Jan

0422

C

5

Riyadh

3 destroyed/2 SE of envelope [defended area]        

3

#39

   

2

   

13

Probable late reporting of #39 activity. CURR entry was based on single ref with five vs. three Scuds. No other indications of activity at time this hand message prepared. Estimate three are duplicative and two overestimate of missiles fired.

49

22 Jan

0425

Z

1

Dhahran

1 destroyed    

1

   

#44

           

4

Further info on #44 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.

50

22 Jan

0425

C

2

Dhahran

Impact outside envelope/desert    

2

   

#44

           

4

Further info on #44 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.

51

22 Jan

1745

?

1

KKMC

Confirmed warhead kills                

1

       

None

1 source noted this attack had no warning and another source noted possible software glitch. Evidence suggests Patriots fired at false targets.

52

22 Jan

1800

C

#

Dhahran

4 Patriot intercepts/2 detonated    

1

   

#53

1

            No nbr entered. Only one Source said two Scuds. Scored one as dupe and one as additional false target.

53

23 Jan

1945

Z

4

Damman/ Riyadh

All destroyed by Patriots

4

                       

5

First entry for this valid activity. Best estimate is five at KTO - incl three at Riyadh and two at Dhahran. Noted time is ~nine mins early. Single source for this entry was briefing slide that may have rounded off time. No other refs substantiated this early time.

54

23 Jan

1954

Z

2

Dhahran

Engaged by Patriot    

2

   

#53

           

5

Further info on #53 activity. This is valid time for these incidents.

55

23 Jan

1954

Z

2

Riyadh

Engaged by Patriot    

2

   

#53

           

5

Further info on #53 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.

56

23 Jan

1957

Z

5

Saudi (NFI)

2 destroyed @ Riyadh/0 @ KKMC    

4

   

#53

   

1

   

5

Four are duplicative. Fifth Scud at this approximate time was fired at Israel (here wrong salvo size).

57

23 Jan

2254

C

3

Dhahran

2 destroyed/1 into Gulf    

2

   

#53

   

1

   

5

Three Scuds appear to be one too many against Dhahran based on weight of evidence. Time indicates other 2 are duplicative.

58

23 Jan

2254

C

2

Riyadh

1 destroyed    

2

   

#53

           

5

Further info on #53 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.

59

23 Jan

2258-2303

C

2/2

Dhahran/ Riyadh

All destroyed by Patriots    

4

   

#53

           

5

Further info on #53 activity. Times indicate duplicative entry.

60

23 Jan

2300

C

2

KKMC

Destroyed by Patriot                

2

       

None

A few refs note one or two Scuds engaged from KKMC but other sources indicate scepticism. This was final noted incidence of Patriot fire on false targets. See main body, Section VI.

61

24 Jan

   

?

4

Damman/ Riyadh

All destroyed by Patriots    

4

   

#53

           

5

No time entered. One ref noted activity happened "yesterday" (Jan 23). Clear that this was later summary of activity and duplicative entry on #53 incident.

62

25 Jan

1125

Wrong C

5

Riyadh

(none)

2

               

3

   

15

Single hand log source had start (from) time of 25/2000[C] ruling out 25/1125C as correct time. Presume real time was 11:25 p.m. or 2325C. This is hour late for confirmed activity. No other support for either 1125C or 2325C incidents on 25th. Weight of evidence indicates two Scuds fired at ~2222C. Assess this entry as first for these two Scuds and excess salvo size for other three.

63

25 Jan

1921-2

Z

3

Riyadh

(none)    

2

   

#62

   

1

   

15

Most refs for this entry also note two Scuds. Z time is approximately correct. Duplicative of #62 activity.

64

25 Jan

2223

C

1

MODA Riyadh

Patriots destroyed/Scud @ 2K S    

1

   

#62

           

15

Time (C) indicates duplicative entry on #62 activity.

65

25 Jan

2224

C

2

Riyadh

Both shot down by Patriots/1 hit Dept Interior Bldg/slight injuries    

2

   

#62

           

15

Duplicative and additional info on #62 activity based on time.

66

25 Jan

2233

C

1

Riyadh

Engaged by Patriot    

1

   

#62

           

15

Duplicative of #62 activity based on time.

67

25 Jan

2230

C

2

Riyadh

1 destroyed/1 impact 2 km S of MODA building    

2

   

#62

           

15

Duplicative (based on time) and additional info on #62 activity.

68

25 Jan

2250

C

1

KKMC

Killed by Patriot        

1

#62

           

15

Log entry noted one Scud inbound and also noted maintenance status at KKMC - location probably not related to Scud target. Similarity of time suggests dupe of #62 activity.

69

25 Jan

Even- ing

?

2/1

Riyadh/ Dhahran

All intercepted by Patriots

1

2

   

#62

           

15 and 6

Both of CURR's sources for this entry were 24-hour summaries without times. Riyadh attack duplicates that assessed in #62. Attack on Dhahran was said to be "last night" and actually occurred early on 26th. This is initial entry covering corroborated Dhahran attack and assessed as duplicative for two at Riyadh.

70

25/ 26 Jan

   

?

1

Dhahran

Intercepted    

1

   

#69

           

6

Single ref marked as basis for this entry reports this attack at 0330 on 26th. Further reflection of Dhahran activity first noted in #69.

71

25/ 26 Jan

   

?

2

Riyadh

Intercepted    

2

   

#62

           

15

Single ref was briefing slide from 26th reporting Riyadh/Dhahran attacks "last night." Clearly further reflection of Riyadh activity in #62.

72

26 Jan

0028

Z

1

Dhahran

Impact 0035    

1

   

#69

           

6

Corroborated time for Dhahran attack in #69.

73

26 Jan

0330

C

2

Dhahran/ KFIA

Both intercepted by Patriots/1 warhead landed in Dhahran/no deaths or injuries reported    

1

   

#69

   

1

   

6

C time for attack in #69. Best sources indicate only one Scud but three other refs reported two.

74

26 Jan

0435

C

2

Dhahran

Engaged by Patriot        

1

#69

   

1

   

6

Scud activity slide included entry for 0435C (two missiles). No other source reported this time which was ~one hour late. One is likely late dupe of #69 - other wrong salvo size.

75

26 Jan

1946

Z

1

Riyadh

Detonated

1

                       

16

Several sources reported on this single launch at Riyadh with a Patriot intercept. First entry on this corroborated attack.

76

26 Jan

1948

Z

(5)

Saudi

SA(Riyadh/2) NFI    

1

   

#75

   

4

   

16

Two refs for this entry summarized Scud attacks. One did not note target areas for five Scuds, other indicated two toward Riyadh and rest at Israel. Best available information corroborates one Scud at Riyadh and four at Israel. Riyadh attack clearly dupe of #75, rest wrong salvo size for KTO.

77

26 Jan

2018

Z

1+(1)

Saudi

Possible warhead kill    

1

   

#75

   

1

   

16

One confirmed, one unconfirmed initially reported fired at KTO. Later, better assessments support only one. Ref gave start/end times for all attacks including against Israel. CURR time is end time and involved attack on Israel. Therefore, clear dupe of #75.

78

26 Jan

2138

Z

   

Riyadh

Scud debris falling    

1

   

#75

           

16

Assumed one missile in absence of entry. Entered time was log entry for Explosive Ordnance Disposal incident report on Scud debris, not time of attack. Clearly late reflection of #75 activity.

79

26 Jan

2248

C

1

Riyadh

Intercepted by Patriot    

1

   

#75

           

16

Shift to C time. Clear dupe of #75 based on time.

80

26 Jan

2250-2320

C

1

Riyadh

Destroyed over empty field    

1

   

#75

           

16

Times indicate further reflection of Riyadh activity in #75.

81

26 Jan

2300

C?

   

King Fadh/ KKMC

(none)                        

1

None

Single hand log ref noted four launches -- one at Riyadh, one at King Fadh (proper sp Fahd -- airport near Dhahran) and two at Israel. No mention of KKMC. CURR probably mislocated King Fahd Airport. However, there is no corroboration for attack on Dhahran (or KKMC) at this time -- attack was on Riyadh. Therefore, this entry is unmatched.

82

26 Jan

2310

C

1

Dhahran

Engaged by Patriot                        

1

None

Two almost identical Scud/Patriot Results tables vary only in attributing this launch against Dhahran vs. Riyadh. Weight of evidence clearly favors Riyadh with this entry (like #81) unmatched.

83

26 Jan

2332

C

1

Riyadh

Impact 1/4 mi SW of MODA bldg    

1

   

#75

           

16

Time indicates further reflection of Riyadh activity in #75.

84

26/7 Jan

0300

Z

1

Riyadh

Intercepted by Patriot    

1

   

#75

           

16

Time entry is date-time group of SITREP summary msg, not incident time. Clearly summarizing #75 Riyadh activity.

85

27 Jan

48 hrs

?

4

Saudi (NFI)

All engaged by Patriot        

4

#62, #69, #75

           

15, 6, and 16

Source was 48-hour wrap-up. Four does not include unsubstantiated launch against Dhahran.

86

28 Jan

0710

Prob C

1

Dhahran

1 HTH contractor hit by debris        

1

Unk

           

Unk

Source was NBC log from E of KKMC bemoaning unavailability of commercial CWA decontamination chemical (HTH = calcium hypochlorite) because supplier/contractor took Scud damage. Probably reflection of unidentified previous attack vice new separate incident. No other evidence of activity at noted time/location.

87

28 Jan

1755

Z

1

Riyadh

Intercepted by Patriot

1

                       

17

Several sources reported a Scud kill at Riyadh (a few refs suggested two to three Scuds but rest of refs note only one with another fired later toward Israel). Initial corroborated reflection of this attack.

88

28 Jan

1758

Z

1

Riyadh

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#87

           

17

Time clearly indicates this is further reflection of Riyadh activity in #87.

89

28 Jan

1904

Z

2-3

Riyadh

NFI        

1

#87

   

2

   

17

One log ref had entry for 2104C (1804Z) with three Scuds reported against Riyadh. Other ref (summary message) included 1904Z time which does not correlate with either C or Z time for corroborated incident. Suspect one-hour error in this summary. Also, bulk of evidence supports only one Scud firing just before 2100C, hence two uncorrelated salvo size.

90

28 Jan

2057

C

1

Riyadh/Al Jabal

Destroyed, debris fell on farm    

1

   

#87

           

17

Several sources noted debris in rural area S of town. C time correlates with #87 Z time. Clear dupe.

91

29 Jan

Even- ing

?

2

    (none)        

1

#87

   

1

   

17

One ref for this entry appeared to summarize previous day's activity (one Scud at Riyadh and one at Israel on 28th). Other source included same info in entry for 29th. There are no other indications of any Scud firings on 29th, therefore assessed as previous day's activity. Neither ref noted two Scuds fired at KTO so second missile is incorrect salvo size in CURR entry.

92

29 Jan

0004

C

1

Riyadh

Engaged by Patriot        

1

#87

           

17

Single ref was summary slide showing attack at time noted. No other corroboration for this time. Suspect dupe of #87 with time about 2 hours late.

93

2 Feb

2141-2

Z

2

Riyadh

Destroyed/minor damage and casualties

1

               

1

   

18

Most sources indicate one Scud - second unsubstantiated. Initial entry for this Riyadh activity.

94

3 Feb

Early AM

C

1

Riyadh

Intercepted/warhead fell 1/4 m[i?] PX    

1

   

#93

           

18

Target and general time strongly indicated further info on #93 activity.

95

3 Feb

0042

C

1

Riyadh

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#93

           

18

Time (C vs. Z) clearly points to dupe of #93.

96

3 Feb

0100

C

1

Riyadh

Engaged/warhead exploded in suburb/damage to several bldgs    

1

   

#93

           

18

Description and time confirms dupe of #93.

97

3 Feb

0120

C

2

Riyadh

Impacts 30 nm S and 55 nm N    

1

   

#93

   

1

   

18

One of two refs claimed two Scuds at Riyadh but most sources report only one Scud at this time. Other considered wrong salvo size.

98

3 Feb

0233

?

1

Riyadh

(none)        

1

#93

           

18

CURR unable to identify ref citing entered time. No other substantiation. Presumed late reporting on #93 activity.

99

7 Feb

2255

Z

1

Riyadh

Intercepted by Patriot

1

                       

19

Numerous sources reported this Scud intercepted by two Patriots but resulting in ground explosion. Initial entry for this corroborated attack.

100

7-8 Feb

   

?

1

Riyadh

Destroyed    

1

   

#99

           

19

CURR annotated only one Scud - some refs for this entry note two. Weight of evidence = one.

101

8 Feb

0155-6

C

1

Riyadh

Patriot destroyed/debris prk lot    

1

   

#99

           

19

Separate debris impacts may have initially suggested separate Scuds. Time confirms dupe of #99.

102

8 Feb

0220

?

   

O/A (?)

(none)        

1

#99

           

19

Probable late ref to #99 but too little detail to be completely certain. Ref had time of O/A (on or about) 0220.

103

8-9 Feb

0400

Z

1

Riyadh

Intercepted/uninhabited area    

1

   

#99

           

19

Time (0400Z) was DTG of summary msg not incident. Description strongly indicates dupe of #99.

104

11 Feb

1920

Z

1

Damman

(none)

1

                       

20

Ref notes "probably toward Damman." No other evidence of launch at Damman/Dhahran area at this time. However time equates to Scud at Riyadh. As such - first entry for this incident.

105

11 Feb

1920

Z

1

Riyadh

Diverted/impact University pool    

1

   

#104

           

20

Dupe of #104 but with correct target (note times).

106

11 Feb

2220-2

C

1

Riyadh

Engaged/warhead exploded beside school/extensive

damage

   

1

   

#104

           

20

C time equates to #104 Z time indicating dupe of #104 but with correct target.

107

11 Feb

2225

C

1

Riyadh

Impact 30nm SW    

1

   

#104

           

20

Time indicates another dupe of #104 with correct target.

108

11 Feb

   

?

3

Saudi (NFI)

(none)    

1

   

#104

   

2

   

20

Of two refs for this entry - one notes two at Israel and one at KTO and other notes one at Israel and three at KTO. Most sources indicate one vice three missiles at KTO this period (at Riyadh). Dupe of #104.

109

12 Feb

1920

Z

1

Riyadh (toward)

Patriot engaged/minor damage        

1

#104

           

20

One of refs for this entry had correct time but on Feb 12th vs.11th. No other evidence for any Scud firings on 12th. Suspect dupe of #104.

110

12 Feb

   

?

1+(1?)

Riyadh

(none)    

1

   

#104

           

20

Single ref noted three launches "last night" (11th) - two at Israel and one at Riyadh. Disregarded "+(1?)." Clear dupe of #104.

111

13 Feb (wrong date)

0842

Z

2

Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin (KKMC)

Broke apart/5 impacts @ Hafar

2

                       

23

All refs cited by CURR for this entry had activity on Feb 14 vs. Feb 13 as entered. Note same time as #112. Assess date should have been 14th vice 13th. As such, first entry for this activity. Several refs noted Scuds broke up in air and landed at (up to five) different locations. At least two and probably five Scuds involved. Note Hafir Al Batin is ~43 mi NE of KKMC and not same location.

112

14 Feb

0842

Z

2

Tri-border

Impact S of Tri-Border damage to bldg/no injuries    

2

   

#111

           

23

Hafir al Batin is ~50 nm from Tri-Border area (Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/Iraq). Time indicates dupe of #111 with correct date.

113

14 Feb

1140

C

3

Hafar Al Batan (aka Hafir Al Batin)

2 hit by Patriots/1 hit in desert

3

       

#111

           

23

Initial indication of three additional Scuds in this salvo - assessed valid. Patriots did not engage, however.

114

14 Feb

1142

C

2

KKMC

Outside of Patriot range/fell in civilian district/minor damage    

2

   

#111

           

23

Note some refs considered Hafir al Batin equated to KKMC. Patriots at KKMC were out of range for Hafir al Batin. Dupe of #111.

115

14 Feb

1148

C

1

Riyadh

***** (?)        

1

#111

           

23

Times equate to fire at Hafir al Batin. Initial general direction would have been toward Riyadh. Assess as wrong target but dupe of #111.

116

14 Feb

1230

C ?

1

Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin

Fragment struck bldg/3 injuries    

1

   

#111

                Time was when spot report on debris received vice attack time. Clearly further info on #111 activity.

117

14 Feb

1915

C ?

3

Hafar [aka Hafir Al Batin] (KKMC)

Impact VII Corps sector/large pieces of debris fell in 5 areas/MOPP 4/no chem or injuries/150 meters from shower point    

3

   

#111, #113

           

23

Cannot find entered time in either ref, both were after-the-fact summaries. No Scud activity at noted time. Description points to clear dupe of #111 and #113 for three missiles.

118

14 Feb

2045

C ?

1

KKMC

Civilian/KIA: warehse destroyed    

1

   

#111

           

23

Time is late but single ref was labeled "Scud Launch Update." Description clearly indicates dupe of #111.

119

15 Feb

0834

Z

1

Hafir Al Batin

Minimal effect on friendly ops    

1

   

#111

           

23

Refs are summaries with date-time groups on 15th. Noted this activity was first daylight Scud attack and first directed at Hafir al Batin, therefore clear dupes.

120

15 Feb

2301

Z

1

Al Jubayl

Impact 10NM SW/no damage

1

                       

7

Four refs for this initial entry on this activity.

121

16 Feb

0200

C

1

Dharahn

Fell into Persian Gulf    

1

   

#120

           

7

Target area wrong but time (C vs. Z) indicates dupe of #120. Single open source ref noted Scud toward Dhahran (~40 nm further S). Clearly same activity.

122

16 Feb

0202

C

1

Al Jubayl (SA)

Landed in water    

1

   

#120

           

7

Time/locations indicate further info on #120 activity.

123

18 Feb

0215

Z

3

Dharahn

(none)        

3

#2, #5

           

None

Month unclear in single ref. Time appears to point toward Jan vice Feb (false target engagements) in #2 and #5.

124

18 Feb

0215

Z

1

Al Khobar

Debris/damage E side of base        

1

#2

           

None

Same single ref as for #123.

125

21 Feb

1000

Z

2

KKMC

(none)

2

                       

24

Time almost certainly later than ref's "as of" time of 1000Z used for entry. No other evidence of activity at noted time. Assess as first entry on activity described in subsequent entries.

126

21 Feb

1406

Z

2

NE of KKMC

Intercepted by Patriots    

2

   

#125

           

24

Better/more data on #125 activity based on date, target, and bulk of evidence.

127

21 Feb

1652

C?

        (none)                        

1

None

Single entry reported air and Scud "activity" in Iraq but not launches. No other evidence of Scud launch until ~15 minutes later (assuming time = C). Assessed as not Scud firing (no-match event).

128

21 Feb

1707

C

2

KKMC/ Al Jubayl

Kill on 2 TBMs (1 exploded in flt)    

2

   

#125

           

24

One ref noted two at KKMC and "no info on third - heading towards Al Jubayl." Bulk of info indicates two Scuds fired at KKMC and this is dupe of activity in #125 and subsequent.

129

21 Feb

1710

C

3

KKMC

2 intercepted/target 10mi NW    

2

   

#125

   

1

   

24

Some sources indicate three vice two Scuds launched. Weight of evidence indicates two. Time indicates dupe of #125 and subsequent.

130

21 Feb

1800

Z

1

E of KKMC

Broke up/impact 50 km E

1

                       

25

Was third missile of day at KKMC area. First entry on this corroborated attack.

131

21 Feb

1801

Z

1

KKMC

Impact 30 km SW of KKMC    

1

   

#130

           

25

Different impact location from #130 probably was predicted vs. actual after breakup. Time points to dupe of #130.

132

21 Feb

1800

Z

1

Saudi (NFI)

U/I target/no sig. Damage    

1

   

#130

           

25

Time establishes dupe of #130.

133

21 Feb

2102

C

1

Riyadh (toward)

Exploded early in flight    

1

   

#130

           

25

Actual target probably KKMC vs. Riyadh.

134

21 Feb

2103

C

1

KKMC

Out of footprint    

1

   

#130

           

25

Further info on #130 activity.

135

21 Feb

2111

C

2

KKMC

Patriots fired    

1

   

#130

   

1

   

25

Bulk of evidence indicates only one missile and no Patriot engagement. Time points to dupe of #130.

136

21 Feb

2331

Z

3

Bahrain/ Dhahran

1 engaged over water/1 outside of Patriot range/1 broke up/no impact

3

                       

8

Numerous refs to this activity with two Scuds hitting in Persian Gulf and one engaged with possible debris falling on Bahrain. First entry.

137

21 Feb

2331

Z

1

SA (undeter- mined)

No damage/injuries    

1

   

#136

           

8

Time indicates further info on #136 activity.

138

21 Feb

2332

Z

1

Bahrain

Engaged by Patriot    

1

   

#136

           

8

Time indicates further info on #136 activity.

139

21 Feb

2334

Z

1

Dhahran

No known damage    

1

   

#136

           

8

Time indicates further info on #136 activity.

140

22 Feb

0233

C

3

Bahrain/ Dhahran

1 engaged/2 in gulf/debris @ Bahrain    

3

   

#136

           

8

Note 22/0233C = 21/2333Z. Time indicates dupe of #136.

141

22 Feb

0234

C

2

Doha

1 engaged/1 overflew    

2

   

#136

           

8

Note Doha is in southern Qatar. Scud engaged by Patriot battery in Bahrain. Time indicates further reflections of #136 events.

142

22 Feb

0245

C

1

Riyadh

(none)    

1

   

#136

           

8

Two refs noted initially projected target of Riyadh or KKMC but actual impact E. of Dhahran. This and times indicate dupe of #136.

143

22 Feb

1406

Z

2

KKMC

1 engaged/1 malfunctioned    

2

   

#125

           

24

"Period covered" in msg points to activity on 22nd but time, target, and description clearly point to event on 21st and hence dupe of #125. No other indications of Scud activity on 22nd.

144

22/3 Feb

   

?

3

KKMC

2 intercepted/1 exploded in flt    

2

   

#125

   

1

   

24

Date-time group of ref was very early on 23rd but covered activity "in past 24 hours." Some refs noted three vs. two Scuds fired but bulk of evidence indicated two. Another dupe of #125 based on target and date.

145

22/3 Feb

   

?

2

Bahrain

1 intercepted/1 landed in Gulf    

2

   

#136

           

8

Target and description clearly indicate dupe of #136 activity.

146

23 Feb

0159

Z

1+ (1)

Dhahran

No impacts detected

2

                       

9

Ref noted one, possibly two, fired. Evidence favors two. First entry on corroborated event.

147

23 Feb

0459

C

2

Dhahran (toward)

Landed SW of Dhahran/ desert    

2

   

#146

           

9

Target and time indicate dupe of #146. Taken together, evidence suggests one impact SW and one impact NW of Dhahran.

148

23 Feb

0503

C

1

Riyadh/ KKMC

(none)    

1

   

#146

           

9

One ref notes at risk areas included Riyadh, KKMC, and Dhahran but that impact location was in Dhahran area. This and time point to dupe of #146.

149

23 Feb

0507

C

1

King Fadh

Impact 10 nm NE    

1

   

#146

           

9

Time and location (Dhahran area) point to clear dupe of #146.

150

24 Feb

0132

Z

1

Riyadh

Damage to unocc. school @ 500m from Riyadh Sheraton

1

                       

21

First valid ref to intercepted Scud that still caused damage.

151

24 Feb

0432

C

1

Riyadh

Intercepted by Patriots    

1

   

#150

           

21

Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.

152

24 Feb

0435-8

C

1

Riyadh

Killed by Patriot/10km NW/W (?)    

1

   

#150

           

21

Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.

153

24 Feb

0436

C

1

Riyadh

Destroyed by Patriot    

1

   

#150

           

21

Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.

154

24 Feb

0440

C

2

Riyadh/ Dhahran

No BDA    

1

   

#150

       

1

21 and None

Time and target point to one dupe of #150. There is no corroboration for Scud at Dhahran at this time.

155

24 Feb

0917

Z

1

King Khalid AF

Fell SE of KKAF

1

                       

26

Valid initial entry.

156

24 Feb

0917-8

Z

1

KKMC

Warhead kill/debris 10 nm E    

1

   

#155

           

26

Time/area clearly indicates dupe of #155. Notes one Patriot killed Scud.

157

24 Feb

1218

C

3

KKMC

1 overflight/1 engaged/1??    

1

   

#155

   

2

   

26

Cannot corroborate more than one Scud at this time. One ref recorded three Scuds for day (correct). One ref noted second Scud disappeared from radar (possibly debris). Assess two as inaccurate salvo size.

158

24 Feb

1225

C

2

KKMC

Report: Scud kill/no damage    

1

   

#155

   

1

   

26

Cannot confirm more than one Scud at this time. One is dupe of #155 based on time/area.

159

24 Feb

1725

?

1

Riyadh

Mission kill

1

                       

22

Time should be 1825Z vice 1725 as subsequent dupe entries make clear. Ref noted "approx 24/1725Z." Possible originator error in translating from local (C) time. No evidence of launch at 1725Z (or C). Valid first entry.

160

24 Feb

1823

Z

1

Riyadh

Scud destroyed    

1

   

#159

           

22

Correct time for this activity.

161

24 Feb

2124

C

1

Riyadh

Damage to school    

1

   

#159

           

22

Clear dupe of #159 with correct (C) time.

162

24 Feb

2125

C

1

Riyadh IAP

Warhead kill by Patriot    

1

   

#159

           

22

A second impact may have been debris. Time/location mean dupe.

163

24 Feb

2126

C

1

KKMC

Engaged by Patriot/break up    

1

   

#159

           

22

Refs cited for entry support Riyadh as target. One source noted projected impact just N of Riyadh but indicated KKMC at risk. Another source indicated one Scud engaged and another broke up in flight, but evidence supports one Scud.

164

24 Feb

2130

C

2

Riyadh

Engaged by Patriot    

1

   

#159

   

1

   

22

Ref noted three Scuds for day (24th) with two at Riyadh (correct). Only second of these associated with this activity, hence one wrong salvo size.

165

25 Feb

1732

Z

1

Dhahran

(none)

1

                       

10

Valid initial ref for one Scud not engaged by Patriots that caused more United States casualties than any other engagement in Gulf War when it hit warehouse/ barracks.

166

25 Feb

1736/ 2058

Z/C

1

Dhahran

Impacted United States barracks/burns/475 QM/GP: to 85th Evac Hospital    

1

   

#165

           

10

Because of casualties, large number of refs to this activity continued for days as casualty figures were revised upward. Time and description mean dupe of #165.

167

25 Feb

1816

Z

1

Dhahran

Impact    

1

   

#165

           

10

Further entry on #165 activity.

168

25 Feb

2034

C

1

Bahrain

Fell into ocean between sites    

1

   

#165

           

10

Single ref for this entry noted impact in Gulf but also for same incident noted hit on barracks.

169

25 Feb

2200

Z

1

King Fahd

(none)

1

                       

11

Single ref has "late entry" for 2200Z noting a launch, missile break-up, and multiple impacts including King Fahd Airport, Bahrain, and Persian Gulf off Qatar. Ref noted Saudis said missile landed in the Gulf at Doha (Qatar). Actual launch time was later than "late entry" - 2226Z on 25th (26/0126C) Valid initial cite for last confirmed Scud firing of Gulf War.

170

25 Feb

2200

Z

1

Bahrain

(none)        

1

#165,#169

           

10, 11

In addition to same cite used to create #169, CURR refs for this entry include ops log noting three launches earlier at 1738-1742Z. Latter ref relates to #165 firing resulting in high casualties in a barracks. Bulk of evidence for #165 indicates only one Scud that may have broken up with part landing in the Persian Gulf. Probable dupe of two previous entries.

171

25 Feb

2200

Z

   

Doha

(none)    

1

   

#169

           

11

Same CURR single "late entry" ref as for #169.

172

25 Feb

2226

Z

1

N. Saudi

(none)    

1

   

#169

           

11

Ref for this entry notes Iraqi launch threatening northern KTO. Date/time confirm dupe of #169.

173

25/6 Feb

0400

Z

   

Riyadh

Destroyed by Patriot        

1

#159

           

22

CURR time entry is date-time group of msg reporting on earlier activity (reporting period for Feb 25th Z). However, activity suggests reporting on Feb 24 attack on Riyadh (#159). The cited summary of activity did not note late 25th devastating hit on barracks. No other sources report firing on this target on Feb 25.

174

       

?

1

Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin

Destroyed by Patriot        

1

#155

           

26

Same ref as #173 for Feb 25th Z - likely dupe of firing against KKMC on 24th. No other sources report firing on this target on Feb 25.

175

26 Feb

0126-9

C

1

Doha/Qatar

Impact 40 nm N of Doha    

1

   

#169

           

11

Note 26/0126C = 25/2226Z. Cites are further reporting on activity first noted in #169.

176

26 Feb

0130

C

1

Dhahran/ Qatar

Scud fell into Persian Gulf    

1

   

#169

           

11

Ref notes about 1:30 a.m. on Feb 26 one Scud was fired toward Dhahran or possibly Qatar. Note ~1:30 AM (C) on 26th = 2226Z on Feb 25. Clear dupe of last Scud firing.

177

26 Feb

0600

?

1

Damman

Al Kobar [aka Khobar] Village (40 MIA)    

1

   

#165

           

10

Refs note hit on Khobar warehouse and high casualties - clear late reporting/update on barracks disaster.

178

26 Feb

1558

C ?

2

Dhahran

(none)                        

2

None

Hand log noted two launches at about 1558 on Feb 26 (with azimuths threatening Israel and E. KTO). However, additional ref notes continuing analysis of data on 26/1557 activity indicates an explosion was involved rather than a launch. No other refs to this activity. Non-launch event.

179

26 Feb

2032

C

1

Dhahran

Billeting/AUJAN/475th POL    

1

   

#165

           

10

Further update reporting on barracks hit and casualties make this clear dupe of #165.
               

344

   

<=TOTALS=>

46

202

30

   

27

33

6

       

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