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SERIAL:  DSA 91A-91

/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/

SUBJECT:  IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION UPDATE. 
 
DOI:  27 JAN 91 (AS OF 0100 EST)

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DISCUSSION
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9.                   MISSILE/CHEMICAL INTELLIGENCE.  [b.1. sec 1.5.c.]
THERE HAVE BEEN FIVE ADDITIONAL IRAQI MODIFIED SCUD MISSILES
LAUNCHED.  THE FIRST LAUNCH [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
 DETONATED IN RIYADH.  THE FOLLOWING FOUR
WERE LAUNCHED                    [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]                            TOWARDS TEL AVIV.
PRELIMINARY DATA FAILS TO INDICATE IF ANY OF THE MISSILES IMPACTED
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]


10.             A SURVEY OF SCUD LAUNCH DATA BASED ON MISSILES ATTACKS
BETWEEN 17 AND 25 JANUARY FAILED TO UNCOVER DEFINITIVE LAUNCH TIMING
1NDICATORS.  WHILE LAUNCHES USUALLY OCCUR APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS
AFTER THE COMPLETION OF ANY COALITION AIR OPERATION NEAR THE LAUNCH
SITE, THE ABSENCE OF AIR ACTIVITY DOES NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO A
LAUNCH. ALSO, ON 25 JANUARY, ONE LAUNCH TOOK PLACE WHILE COALITION
AIRCRAFT WERE STILL IN THE AREA.
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([b.1. sec 1.5.c.]
                                                                 ACCORDING TO [b.1. sec 1.5.c.]
 SADDAM HUSAYN HAS GIVEN THE ORDER TO BEGIN USING
CHEMICAL WARFARE ON 27 JANUARY.  COMMENT:  THIS UNSUBSTANTIATED
REPORT FOLLOWS SEVERAL RECENT INDICATORS THAT SADDAM IS, AT THE VERY
LEAST, WAGING A PSYCHOLOGICAL CAMPAIGN TO PREPARE BOTH IRAQI
CITIZENS AND COALITION ADVERSARIES FOR EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL
WEAPONS.  HE HAS NOT RELENTED IN HIS THREAT TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.

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19.                      THE MINA AL AHMADI SEA ISLAND TERMINAL, SITE OF THE
MAJOR OIL SPILL, WAS ON FIRE ON THE 26TH.  BILLOWING DARK SMOKE WAS
                     EMANATING FROM THE TERMINAL. 
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
20.                   LARGE AMOUNTS OF OIL IN VARYING CONCENTRATIONS  
 ALONG A 48 NM STRETCH OF THE KUWAITI-SAUDI COASTLINE.  THE
OIL SLICKS EXTENDED FROM THE BURNING MINA AL AHMADI SEA ISLAND
TERMINAL, OFFSHORE ASH SHUAYBAH, SOUTH TO RAS AL KHAFJI, SAUDI
ARABIA. ONE OF THE HEAVIER CONCENTRATIONS OF OIL 
APPROXIMATELY 7 NM OFFSHORE THE NAVAL BASE AT RAS AL QULAYAH.
21.                  TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATIONS OF OIL
NORTH OF RAS AL QULAYAH IN THE ASH SHUAYBAH AREA. [b.1. sec 1.5.c.]
22.              AT THE MINA AL BAKR POL TERMINAL, TWO LONG TRAILS OF
OIL HAVE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE TWO POL TRANSFER POSITIONS AT THE
TERMINAL [b.1. sec 1.5.c.]                   ALSO, THE DAMAGED IRAQI TANKER
"AMURIYAH,"                                  PARTIALLY SUBMERGED SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL. 

23.[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]                           THE THREAT POSED BY THE
GULF OIL SLICK TO THE KINGDOM'S FRESH WATER SUPPLY COULD BE SEVERE.
SAUDI ARABIA'S DESALINATION AND D1STRIBUTION SYSTEM, DESCRIBED AS
THE MOST COMPLEX IN THE WORLD, CONSISTS OF 21 DESALINATION PLANTS
THROUGHOUT THE KINGDOM WITH A COMBINED PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF ABOUT
530 MILLION GALLONS A DAY.  THREE PLANTS, LOCATED ALONG THE GULF
COAST AT AL JUBAYL, AL KHOBAR, AND AL KHAFJI, PRODUCE ABOUT 65
PERCENT OF SAUDI'S FRESHWATER CONSUMPTION.  COMMENT:  IF THE OIL
SLICK WERE TOFORCE ALL THREE GULF PLANTS TO SHUT DOWN, SOME FORM OF
WATER RATIONING PROGRAM WOULD MOST LIKELY BE INSTITUTED.  THE BACKUP
SYSTEM FOR THE SAUDI EAST COAST IS A SERIES OF HEAVILY MINERALIZED
WELLS, WHICH IS A HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER.

[b.1. sec 1.5.c.]

25.             POLITICAL/DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS               .[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.REPORTED THAT SADDAM HUSAYN PLANS TO ]INAUGURATE TWO MAJOR CONTINGENCY PLANS AGAINST COALITION FORCES AS
HIS "SECRET WEAPONS".  THE FIRST IS TO DESTROY ALL OIL FIELDS AND
REFINERIES IN KUWAIT IN AN EFFORT TO BRING ABOUT AN ENVIRONMENTAL
HOLOCAUST.  THE SECOND INVOLVES BRINGING IRAN INTO THE WAR AS AN
ALLY BY DESTROYING ISLAMIC SITES IN IRAQ THAT ARE CONSIDERED SACRED
TO THE SHIA SECT, AND THEN BLAMING THE DESTRUCTION ON COALITION
BDMBING. HUSAYN WAS SAID TO BELIEVE THAT, IF IRAN ENTERED THE WAR,
THE REST OF THE ARAB WORLD WOULD ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND JOIN THE FIGHT
AGAINST THE WEST.  COMMENT:  THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS INFORMATION
IS ANTI-IRAQI PROPAGANDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  NONETHELESS, THE
FIRST PART OF THIS ALLEGED HUSAYN PLAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN
INITIATED.  MOREOVER, A PERCEIVED COALITION ATTACK ON SHIA SHRINES
AT AL NAJAF AND KARBALA WOULD UNQUESTIONABLY BE VIEWED BY ISLAMIC
RADICALS IN TEHRAN AS A MAJOR WESTERN MOVE AGAINST ISLAM.


[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

27.             ISRAEL                   [b.1. sec. 1.5.c., d,]

.  ISRAEL RADIO REPORTED ON THE 25TH, THAT
SCUDS CAUSED DAMAGE TO BOTH JEWISH AND ARAB HOUSES IN HAIFA, WHICH
HAS A LARGE ARAB COMMUNITY.  COMMENT:  AS THE NUMBER OF ISRAELI
CASUALTIES RISE, PRESSURE WITHIN HARDLINE GOVERNMENT AND MINORITY
ELEMENTS WILL CERTAINLY MOUNT FOR SOME SORT OF MILITARY RESPONSE.
HOWEVER, POLLS STILL FAVOR RESTRAINT OVER RETALIATION.  THE PEOPLE'S
ABILITY TO WITHSTAND ATTACKS AND THE POLITICAL CREDIT ISRAEL IS GAINING INTERNATIONALLY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO ASSUAGE THE GOVERNMENT FOR NOW.

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