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File: 062096_cia_72206_72206_01.txt
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Subject: IRAQ'S CW CAPABILITIES & INTENTI

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







IRAQI CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS



A CHRONOLOGY



DISCUSSION



WE HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT IRAQ WAS COMMITTING EXTENSIVE

RESOURCES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CHEMICAL WEAPONS

CAPABILITY.

BAGHDAD'S SUCCESSFUL EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL

WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN AND NOTED THAT IRAQ CONTINUED TO

ENLARGE AND ENHANCE ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL.



CAPABILITIES



IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE INVASION OF KUWAIT, OUR

ANALYSIS ASSOCIATED IRAQI CHEMICAL WEAPONS WITH VARIOUS

DELIVERY SYSTEMS:



IN AN AUGUST          , WE JUDGED THAT IRAQ

"ALMOST CERTAINLY" HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF CW

WARHEADS AVAILABLE FOR ITS SCUD MISSILES.



IRAQ ALSO HAD

A WIDE RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS,

INCLUDING BOMBS, SHELLS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS.



SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD

COVERTLY DELIVER CHEMICAL'WEAPONS TO SELECTED

TARGETS.



BETWEEN THEN AND JANUARY,          THE

POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS STOCKS.



IRAQI FORCES WERE STORING CHEMICAL

WEAPONS IN KUWAIT AND DISPERSING THEM IN LARGE

NUMBERS TO AIRFIELDS IN IRAQ.



IRAQ MIGHT BE STORING

CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT AN AMMUNITION STORAGE

FACILITY.



ACTIVITY

SUGGESTED THAT THE IRAQIS WERE

MOVING CHEMICAL WEAPONS FORWARD TO TACTICAL UNITS.







THE DEPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS UNITS TO SEVERAL

FRONTLINE DIVISIONS IN KUWAIT. ARTILLERY UNITS THERE

WERE PREPARED TO LAUNCH CHEMICAL ATTACKS.



INTENTIONS







WE ASSESSED THAT CW WARHEADS ON

SCUDS WOULD ONLY BE USED AS A "LAST-DITCH EFFORT" TO BRING

ISRAEL INTO THE WAR.







THE VARYING CONDITIONS IN

WHICH SADDAM MIGHT BE WILLING TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS

AGAINST MEMBERS OF THE COALITION:



IN COMBAT          IRAQI FORCES

WOULD BE "VIRTUALLY CERTAIN" TO USE CHEMICAL

WEAPONS IF THEY WERE PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED

OFFENSIVE.



THERE WERE

"STRONG INDICATIONS" THAT IRAQ WAS PREPARED TO USE

CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN A POTENTIAL INVASION OF SAUDI

ARABIA, EVEN IF THE UNITED STATES OR OTHER COUNTRIES

INTERVENE.



THAT THOUGH IRAQ HAD PREPARED

ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR USE, IT WAS NOT NECESSARILY

COMMITTED TO USING THEM.



ON THE EVE OF THE WAR

SADDAM MIGHT USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN

"A VARIETY OF CIRCUMSTANCES" DURING THE INITIAL

48 HOURS OF A CONFLICT WITH THE ALLIES.



AS THE AIR WAR PROCEEDED, WE CONTINUED TO RAISE THE

POSSIBILITY OF CW STRIKES.



IN COMMENTING ON IRAQ'S FAILURE TO USE CHEMICAL

WEAPONS,

ASSESSED THAT THE STEADFASTNESS OF THE COALITION

MIGHT PERSUADE SADDAM THAT ESCALATION TO CHEMICAL

ATTACKS WAS NECESSARY.



JUDGED

THAT SADDAM "MIGHT" LAUNCH LIMITED CHEMICAL WEAPONS

ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA.



ON THE EVE OF THE GROUND WAR, WE CONTINUED TO BELIEVE

IRAQ WOULD RESORT TO CHEMICAL WEAPONS WHILE JUDGING THAT IT

WOULD PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE.

ARGUED IT WAS "LIKELY" THAT IRAQ WOULD USE CHEMICALS TO TRY

TO STOP ANY COALITION ATTACK THAT THREATENS TO OVERWHELM ITS

FORCES. AT THE SAME TIME, IT RAISED SEVERAL PROBLEMS THAT

WOULD COMPLICATE OR INHIBIT SUCH USE:



THE EXPIRATION DATE OF 70% OF ITS DECONTAMINATION

KITS HAD EXPIRED.



TROOPS HANDLING CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAD INSUFFICIENT

PROTECTIVE GEAR.



EFFECTIVE DELIVERY OF CHEMICALS BY AIRCRAFT SEEMED

UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF ALLIED AIR SUPERIORITY.



BAGHDAD'S LACK OF TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE HIGH

MOBILITY OF COALITION FORCES WOULD HAMPER ITS

ABILITY TO FIND TARGETS.







72206-72206

1.5 (C)

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