END NOTES

[1] Tab A lists acronyms, abbreviations, and a glossary.

[2] Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA Report on Intelligence Related to Gulf War Illnesses," August 2, 1996, p. 5, 7.

[3] Office of the Secretary of Defense, News release, Subject: "Pentagon Receives Computer Modeling Progress Report," December 20, 1996.

[4] Institute for Defense Analyses, Letter with attachment, "Report of the Panel Reviewing Analysis of the Khamisiyah Pit Release of Nerve Agent, March 1991," July 9, 1997, p. 6-7.

[5] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Statement before the Subcommittee on Human Resources, House Committee on Government Reform and Oversight, June 26, 1997.

[6] Defense Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Information Report 1 778 0146 91, "Overview of Iraqi Weapons Industry Establishments," 1991, p. 2.

[7] "The Biological and Chemical Warfare Threat," Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1999, p. 32.

[8] United Nations, "UN Press Release on Muthanna Inspection," June 24, 1991, p. 1.

[9] Defense Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Information Report 1 778 0146 91, "Overview of Iraqi Weapons Industry Establishments," 1991, p. 2.

[10] United Nations, "UN Press Release on Muthanna Inspection," June 24, 1991, p. 3.

[11] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 2.

[12] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 2.

[13] "The United Nations and the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict, 1990-1996," Department of Public Information, United Nations, New York, 1996, p. 356.

[14] United Nations, "UN Press Release on Muthanna Inspection," June 24, 1991, p. 3.

[15] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Iraqi Chemical Warfare (CW) Facilities and Storage Areas," 281930Z Dec 90, p.1.

[16] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Samarra CW Rsch Prod A Stor Fac," 262155Z Sep 90, p. 2.

[17] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 2.

[18] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999; This figure was derived from Director of Central Intelligence, Letter with pictures for release, Figure 2, February 17, 1999.

[19] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Report on CW Facilities at Samarra and Habbaniyah," 140205Z Mar 91, p. 2.

[20] Rathmell, Dr. Andrew, "Chemical Weapons in the Middle East - Lessons from Iraq," Jane's Intelligence Review, December 1, 1995, p. 556.

[21] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 3.

[22] Gordon, Andrew and Bernard Trainor, The Generals' War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf, New York: Little, Brown and Company, 1995, p. 183.

[23] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 3.

[24] Central Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Summary of Iraqi Chemical Warfare Activity," [redacted], September 1990, p. 2.

[25] Duelfer, Charles, United Nations Special Commission representative, Testimony before the Presidential Advisory Committee on Gulf War Veterans' Illnesses, July 29, 1997, p. 47.

[26] Defense Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Information Report 6 021 0196 96, "Iraqi Fallujah, Khamisiyah, and An Nasiriyah Chemical Warfare Related Sites," May 22, 1996, p. 2, 5.

[27] Duelfer, Charles, United Nations Special Commission representative, Testimony before the Presidential Advisory Committee on Gulf War Veterans' Illnesses, July 29, 1997, p. 48, 51.

[28] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999.

[29] Central Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Iraqi Declaration," [redacted] undated, p. 1.

[30] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "IIR 2 201 0022 92/Inspection of Chemical Warfare Facilities (U)," [redacted], 021441Z Oct 91, p. 3.

[31] Rathmell, Dr. Andrew, "Chemical Weapons in the Middle East - Lessons from Iraq," Jane's Intelligence Review, December 1, 1995, p. 556.

[32] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999; Director of Central Intelligence, Letter to the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Attachment, October 14, 1999. The CIA estimated the maximum filled weight of the munitions in Bunker 2 when destroyed totaled 8.9 metric tons. It assumed the purity of the sarin filler was 18 percent, the maximum purity UNSCOM measured for sarin produced during the Iran-Iraq War, leaving 1.6 metric tons of viable sarin (8.9 tons times 18 percent purity). CIA modeling indicated less than one kilogram of sarin vented into the atmosphere from Bunker 2 before the extreme temperature destroyed all viable agent. The CIA used these data, but increased the estimated total release to 10 kilograms to account for early release uncertainties and rockets possibly flying out of the bunker in the explosion.

[33] General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, "Operation Desert Storm, Evaluation of the Air Campaign," June 1997, p. 140.

[34] Center for Naval Analysis, E-mail message, Subject: "Manned Aircraft Attacks on Al Muthanna," June 2, 1998.

[35] Military Analysis Network, web site www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/gbu-10.htm (as of January 30, 2001).

[36] Military Analysis Network, web site www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/mk84.htm (as of January 4, 2001).

[37] US Navy, web site http://209.1.224.12/CapeCanaveral/8629/intruder.htm (as of September 12, 2000).

[38] Jane's for Intelink, Jane's Air-Launched Weapons 1999, "Bombs, United States of America," p. 28, 31. GBU-10s and GBU-27s are precision-guided munitions delivered from US aircraft.

[39] Military Analysis Network, web site www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/gbu-27.htm (as of May 17, 2000).

[40] US Air Force, web site www.af.mil/news/factsheets/F_117A_Nighthawk.html (as of May 17, 2000).

[41] Shepko, Michael J., Center for Naval Analysis Briefing, Subject: "Qubaysah Ammunition Storage and SCUD Depot," undated.

[42] 37th Tactical Fighter Wing, Provisional intelligence message, Subject: "37 TFW Combat Mission Report - 3323B (U)," 080337Z FEB 91, p. 1.

[43] Defense Intelligence Agency, Video, Subject: "KX 7284, Day 23 (F-117), Samarra (U)," (SECRET).

[44] Defense Intelligence Agency, Video, Subject: "KX 7284, Day 23 (F-117), Samarra (U)," (SECRET). This videotape was copied from the WEAPDA database.

[45] Weapons Effects and Performance Data Archival database, Compact disc 232, file 5409; disc 234, files 5451, 5453, and 5454; and disc 248.

[46] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of January 24, 2000).

[47] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "BDA 81-91," [redacted], March 22, 1991, p. 4.

[48] Defense Intelligence Agency, Message, Subject: "Samarra CW Rsch Prod A Stor Fac," 262155Z Feb 90, p. 1.

[49] Explosive Ordnance Disposal Report, AFTO Form 358, Subject: "4401 ARG(P) United Nations Chemical Inspection Team (UNSCOM 17,18) Chemical Ordnance Disposal Report," November 23, 1991, p. 9.

[50] Joint Staff, Message, Subject: "IIR 6 021 0004 91/Condition of CW Storage Bunkers at the Muthanna State Establishment (U)," [redacted] 021321Z Jul 91, p. 2.

[51] Explosive Ordnance Disposal Report, AFTO Form 358, Subject: "4401 ARG(P) United Nations Chemical Inspection Team (UNSCOM 17,18) Chemical Ordnance Disposal Report, 8 Attachments," November 23, 1991, p. 8.

[52] The United Nations Blue Book Series, Volume IX, "The United Nations and the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict, 1990-1996," Document 189, "Seventh Report of the Executive Chairman of UNSCOM," United Nations, Department of Public Information, New York, 1996, p. 356.al_muth_refs/n58en054/102496_war.html

[53] Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Weapons, Technology and Proliferation, "CIA Report on Intelligence Related to Gulf War Illnesses," McLean, VA: US Central Intelligence Agency, August 1996, p. 7.

[54] Director of Central Intelligence, Enclosure 1, Letter, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999, Director of Central Intelligence, Letter to the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Attachment, October 14, 1999. The CIA estimated the maximum number of rockets in Bunker 2 when destroyed was 1,500. It assumed the purity of the sarin filler was 18 percent. Modeling conducted for CIA indicated less than one kilogram of sarin escaped from Bunker 2 before the extreme temperature destroyed all viable agent before it vented into the atmosphere. The CIA used these data, but increased the estimated total release to 10 kilograms to account for early release uncertainties and rockets possibly flying out of the bunker in the explosion.

[55] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999.

[56] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999.

[57] Director of Central Intelligence, Letter, Enclosure 1, Subject: "Re-Assessment of Maximum Release of Agent From Cruciform Bunker 2 at Al Muthanna," February 17, 1999.

[58] Thermoplastic Material Selection Guide, Endura Plastics Inc., web site www.endura.com/material.htm (as of September 22, 2000).

[59] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, Appendix B, p. 96.

[60] Walpole, Robert D, Director of Central Intelligence, Letter to the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Attachment, "Assessment of Releases of Chemical Agents From Iraq," October 14, 1999.

[61] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, p. 8.

[62] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, p. 8.

[63] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Methodology of Refined Modeling of the Khamisiyah Pit Demolition," February 23, 2000, p. 12; US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Memorandum, Subject: "Recommendations of Vapor and Inhalation Toxicity Estimates to be Used in Khamisayah Modeling," August 5, 1999.

[64] US Army Field Manual 8-285, US Navy Medical Publication P-5041, US Air Force Manual 44-149, US Marine Corps Fleet Marine Force Manual 11-11 (adopted as NATO Field Manual 8-285), "Treatment Of Chemical Agent Casualties and Conventional Military Chemical Injuries," December 22, 1995, Glossary, Section II, "Definitions and Terms," p. 4-5, web site www.nbc-med.org/SiteContent/MedRef/OnlineRef/FieldManuals/fm8_285/PART_I/index.htm (as of June 25, 1999).

[65] US Army, Material Safety Data Sheet, "HQ Mustard," Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, June 30, 1995, p. 1.web site http://in1.apgea.army.mil/RDA/msds/index.htm (as of Feb. 8, 2001.)

[66] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[67] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June, 29, 1999).

[68] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[69] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[70] Naval Research Laboratory, "COAMPS," Marine Meteorology Division, November 16, 1999, p. 1.

[71] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 14, 2000).

[72] European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, web site www.ecmwf.int/about/index (as of November 20, 1999).

[73] US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Memorandum from the Program Manager, Environmental Health Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, Subject: "Recommendations of Vapor and Inhalation Toxicity Estimates to be Used in Khamisayah Modeling," August 5, 1999, p. 2.

[74] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[75] US Army, Dugway Proving Ground, "Fact Sheet on Exposure Limits for Sarin (GB)," July 1997, p. 2.

[76] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, Appendix B, p. 38.

[77] Military Analysis Network, web site www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/mk84.htm (as of January 4, 2001).

[78] Pielke, Roger A., Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling, Fort Collins, Colorado: University of Colorado Press, 1984, p. 1.

[79] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, Appendix B, p. 30.

[80] US Army Field Manual 8-285, US Navy Medical Publication P-5041, US Air Force Manual 44-149, US Marine Corps Fleet Marine Force Manual 11-11 (adopted as NATO Field Manual 8-285), "Treatment Of Chemical Agent Casualties and Conventional Military Chemical Injuries," December 22, 1995, Glossary, Section II, "Definitions And Terms," web site www.Nbc-med.org/SiteContent/MedRef/OnlineRef/FieldManuals/fm8_285/PART_I/index.htm (as of June 25, 1999).

[81] US Army, Dugway Proving Ground, "Fact Sheet on Exposure Limits for Sarin (GB)," July 1997, p. 1.

[82] US Army, Pamphlet 385-61, "Toxic Chemical Agent Safety Standards," Washington DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, March 31, 1997, p. 55.

[83] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[84] US Army Field Manual 3-9, US Navy Publication P-467, US Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, Chapter 2, p. 19.

[85] Merriam-Webster Dictionary, copyright 1998 by Merriam-Webster, Incorporated, web site www.m-w.com/dictionary (as of June 25, 1999).

[86] Jacobson, Mark Z., Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling, Edinburgh: Cambridge University Press, 1999, p. 3.

[87] Joint Publication 1-02, "Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms," March 23, 1994, web site www.dtic.mil/jcs/ (as of June 29, 1999).

[88] "Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling, and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction," April 29, 1997. This chemical weapons convention was opened for signature in Paris, France, on January 13, 1993. It has been signed by 165 states and ratified or acceded to by 106 states as of February 1998. It was signed by the United States on January 13, 1993, and ratified on April 25, 1997. Part XI of the convention, "Investigations in Cases of Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons," details some of the procedures. Other protocols and guidelines were found in Methodology and Instrumentation for Sampling and Analysis in the Verification of Chemical Disarmament, The Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, Helsinki, Finland, 1985; Verification Methods, Handling, and Assessment Of Unusual Events In Relation To Allegations of the Use of Novel Chemical Warfare Agents, Consultant University of Saskatchewan in conjunction with the Verification Research Unit of External Affairs and International Trade Canada, March 1990; and Handbook for the Investigation of Allegations of the Use of Chemical or Biological Weapons, Department of External Affairs, Department of National Defence, Health and Welfare Canada, and Agriculture Canada, November 1985. US Army Field Manual 3-4, US Marine Corps Fleet Marine Force Manual 11-9, "NBC Protection," May 1992; US Army Field Manual 8-285, US Navy Medical Publication P-5041, US Air Force Manual 44-149, US Marine Corps Fleet Marine Force Manual 11-11 (adopted as NATO Field Manual 8-285), "Treatment Of Chemical Agent Casualties and Conventional Military Chemical Injuries," December 22, 1995; US Army Field Manual 19-20, "Law Enforcement Investigations," November 25, 1985; and other DoD investigational procedures contributed ideas for developing this methodology.

[89] Office of the Secretary of Defense, News release, Subject: "Pentagon Receives Computer Modeling Progress Report," December 20, 1996.

[90] Institute for Defense Analyses, Letter with attachment, "Report of the Panel Reviewing Analysis of the Khamisiyah Pit Release of Nerve Agent, March 1991," July 9, 1997.

[91] Anthes, Richard, Steve Hanna, Bruce Hicks, and Will Pendergrass, Report, Subject: "Comments by Peer Review Panel on Khamisiyah Modeling Report and Presentations on November 4-5, 1997," December 11, 1997, p. 2-3.

[92] Climate Diagnostics Center, web site www.cdc.noaa.gov/~crdc/krs_papers/papers/iips95_talk/intro2.htr (as of September 20, 2000).

[93] Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, web site www.coaps.fsu.edu/WOCE/SAC/models/fnoc.html (as of September 20, 2000).

[94] European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, web site www.ecmwf.int/about (as of March 1, 2000).

[95] Naval Research Laboratory, Master Events Library, web site www.mel.nrlmry.navy.mil/briefs/EOGEO/slides/meta.htm (as of March 1, 1999).

[96] Science Applications International Corporation, Advanced Physics Operation Omega, web site www.apo.saic.com/omega/doc/overview/overview.html (as of March 1, 2000).

[97] National Center for Atmospheric Research, MM5 Modeling System Overview, web site www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/overview.html (as of March 1, 2000).

[98] See glossary in Tab A for more explanation of the general population limit and the first noticeable effects levels.

[99] Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Promotional brochure, "HPAC, Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability," undated.

[100] US Navy, Modeling and Simulation Management Office, web site http://navmsmo.hq.navy.mil/nmsiscat (as of December 5, 2000).

[101] Institute for Defense Analyses, Letter with attachment, "Report of the Panel Reviewing Analysis of the Khamisiyah Pit Release of Nerve Agent, March 1991," July 9, 1997, p. 7, 8.

[102] US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, web site http://chppm-www.apgea.army.mil (as of March 1, 2000).

[103] General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, "Operation Desert Storm, Evaluation of the Air Campaign," June 1997, p. 139.

[104] Department of Defense, Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office, April 1992, p. 787.

[105] General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, "Operation Desert Storm, Evaluation of the Air Campaign," June 1997, p. 140.

[106] Center for Naval Analysis, E-mail message, Subject: "Manned Aircraft Attacks on Al Muthanna," June 2, 1998.

[107] General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, "Operation Desert Storm, Evaluation of the Air Campaign," June 1997, p. 124-125.

[108] General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, "Operation Desert Storm, Evaluation of the Air Campaign," June 1997, p. 127.

[109] Office of the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Memo for Record, Subject: "Al Muthanna Strike Process," June 2, 1998.

[110] Center for Naval Analysis, E-mail message, Subject: "Manned Aircraft Attacks on Al Muthanna," June 2, 1998.

[111] 37th Tactical Fighter Wing, Message, Subject: "Combat Mission Reports (U), Mission Number: 3323B, Call Sign: Thunder 23," 080337Z Feb 91, p. 1.

[112] Office of the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, Memo for Record, Subject: "Al Muthanna Strike Process," June 2, 1998.

 

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