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U N C L A S
SWO BULLETIN 45
 FOXX31 XXXX 261200
 QQG JOAF #311 VALID: 26/1200Z TO 27/1200Z JAN 91
 1. (U) PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
 AT ANAL TIME THE UPPER LVL PTRN REMAINED UNCHANGED W/A BRANCH OF THE
 PFJ DIPPING INTO THE NWRN AOR W/A 75KT MAX LOCATED IN ERN TURKEY. A
 S/WV I} ASSOC W/THIS MAX AND AT 00Z WAS LOCATED BTWN 38N/58E AND
 32N/28E; THIS WAVE IS XPCTD TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BASE
 OF THE LONG WAVE TROF, WHERE IT WILL DEEPEN A NEWLY DVLPD LOW LOCATED
 AT 33N/ 38E (1012MB), AND WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE ESE.
 ON THE 00Z LAWC A COLD FRNT WAS TRAILING FROM THE LOW IN NERN JORDAN,
 SW TO 27N/31E, THEN NW TO 29N/23E WHERE IT BEGINS TO FRONTALYSIZE AS
 IT RUNS THRU NERN LIBYA. A WK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS ANALYZED AT ^
 31N/ 46E, W/A TROF-XTNBG S/SW TO 26N/2E. THIS TROF IS XPCTD TO MOVE
 THRU THE GULF AREA TODAY W/ONLY GUSTY SFC WNDS XPCTD. ANOTHER WK
 TROF WAS FOUND BTWN 24N/46E AND 27N/51E, AND IS XPCTD TO CAUSE GUSTY -
 WNDS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UAE AREA AND NERN OMAN THIS AFTRN. THE
 REMNANT OF THE FRNT THAT TRAVERSED THE GULF DURING THE PREVIOUS
 PERIOD WAS FOUND XTNDG FROM A LOW IN ERN IRAN (32.5N/57.5R, 1003MB),
 5W TO 12N/46E. AS IT DEPARTS THE ARABIAN PENN, XPCT GUSTY WNDS FOR
 OMAN. THE HIGH THAT WAS LOCATED IN NWRN IRAN ON THE 26/00Z LAWC, HAS
 W  AND MOVD TO THE S/SE TO 32N/49.5E (APPROX 1016MB). ANOTHER HIGH
 CNTR IS LOCATED AT 38N/47E (1021MB). THESE HIGHS ARE ASSOC W/THE
 RIDGING THAT IS MOVG INTO THE NRN AOR FROM SERN EUROPE AND ASIA. A
 HIGH CNTR WAS ALSO FOUND AT 21N/43E, AND THE RED SEA TROF WAS LOCATED
 BTWN 26N/  , 24N/38E, AND 11N/39E. DURING THIS PERIOD, ALSO XPCT
 SCT ---   C/CI IN CNTL SA ASSOC WITH THE ZONAL STJ.
 2. (U) SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 27/00Z
 POINT 1 POINT 2 POINT
 (26N/53E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E)
 TEMP (C) 22 24 27
 WAVE DIR 330 080 010
 PERIOD SEC . 4 6
 HEIGHT FT 1 S
 3. (U) PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:
 WHERE TO BEGIN. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVR WRN LIBYA (1OE) ON 06Z
 HAS CON TD TO WKN FRM CAA FRM UPPR LVL LOW NEAR 7E/35N. THOUGH THIS
 SYS IS WELL OUT OF THE AOR, IT IS HAVING A DIRECT AFFECT. WITH THE
 RIDGE COLLAPSING, MORE S/WV VORT MAXIMAS ARE SHOWING UP OVR ERN LIBYA
 AND EGYPT IN THE FORM OF CI STREAKS, WITH A LARGE AREA OF CS NOW CVRG
 THE GULF OF SIDRA. CURRENT AXIS OF STJ OVR AOR IS OVR CENTRAL LIBYA
 THRU XTRM SRN EGYPT, THEN ACROSS SA ALG 20N, EXITING OVR THE ST OF
 HORMUZ. NOW THE POLAR: MAIN AXIS REMAINS OVR WRN RUSSIA N OF THE
 BLACK SEA. A BRANCH OF THE PFJ DIVERGES FRM THE MAIN FLOW OVR WRN
 TURKEY WHICH FLOWS SE OVR THE ERN MED, THEN ACROSS XTRM SRN IQ/KU
 THEN EXITS OVR N/CNTL IRAN. THIS BRANCH CURRENTLY HAS TWO SIG S/WVS
 IN THE AOR.  THE FIRST IS OVR CNTL JORDAN, ENHNCG CONV AS LOW AT
  BEING ADVECTED WELL INTO NRN EGYPT. THE SRN EDGE OF THESE CLDS 

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