File: aacms_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 4

UNCLASS
SWO BULLETIN 45
FOXX31 XXXX 251200 -
KQQG JOAF #309 VALID: 25/12002 TO 26/12002 JAN 91
1.(u) PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
00Z LAWC SHOWS LOW PRESS AT 33N/38.5E, WHICH HAS BEEN MOVG ESE AND
HAS DEEPENED 2 MBS IN THE PAST 9 HRS. A COLD.FRNT TRAILS FRM THIS
LOW SW TO 28N/34E, THEN NW THRU NRN EGYPT, AND INTO THE ERN MED WHERE
IT BCMS STATIONARY THRU CRETE, AND INTO ERN GREECE. ANOTHER LOW
FORMED ALG THE IQ/SA BORDER AT 29N/43E (lOllMB)# W/THE REMAINS OF A 3
COLD FRNT XTNDG SSW TO 26N/41E1 THEN WNW TO 27N/34. THIS LOW, WHICH
WAS INDUCED BY S/WVS AT 700 AND 500 MBS HAS BEEN MOVG RAPIDLY ESE ALG
THE BORDER THIS MORNG BRINGING LOWER CIGS TO NRN SA) SRN IQ1 AND KU.
A WK WARM FRNT XTNDS FRM THIS LOW SE TO 25N/SOE, WHERE IT JOINS THE
COLD FRNT THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF LAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRNT XTNDS
NE THRU THE SRN GULF TO A LOW IN ERN IRAN (33N/58E, 1009MB}. ANOTHER
-LOW IS LOCATED AT 26,5N/56E, W/A TROF XTNDG SE TO 23N/58.5, THEN SSW
TO 20.5N/57.5E. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESS IN SOMALIA W/A TROF XTNDG NE
BTWN 9N/47E AND 18N/52E. THE RESULTANT S,LY FLOW IS BEING FUNNELED
THRU THE MTNS, CAUSING GUSTY SFC WNDS IN THE SRN ARABIAN PENN. A
HIGH THAT WAS LOCATED BTWN TURKEY AND THE CASPIAN SEA HAS MOVD S OVR
Tp~ PAST 24 HRS TO 37N/46E. THIS SRN MIGRATION HAS PUSHED THE FRNT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY XPCTD, THUS SHIFTED THE POLAR FRNT TO A
MORE NW/SE ORIENTATION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOWS ALG THIS BNDRY TO
MOVE MORE TO THE SE THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. NODDS INITIALIZED WELL
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS IN JORDAN AND IRAN, AND DID SHOW A
COLL AREA AT THE WRN IQ/SA BORDER WHICH LINED UP WELL WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE LOW. THE POLAR FRNT WAS NOT EASILY DEFINED AS IT
WAS HIDDEN IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS NORMAL FOR NODDS. THE
TROF IN ERN OMAN HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE
INDUCED LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NRN GULF, BRINGING LOWER CIGS AND ~-
GUSTY SFC WNDS AS IT PASSES THRU NERN SA. THE FRNT WILL PRODUCE LOW
AND MID CIGS IN THE SRN GULF WITH GUSTY WNDS IN SERN SA/OMAN.
2. (U) SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 25/122
POINT 1 POINT 2 POINT 3
(26N/52E) (22N/04E) (18N/40E)
TEMP (C) 22 24 27
WAVE DIR 260 050 070
PERIOD SEC 0 4 4
HEIGHT FT 1 1 4
3. (U) PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:
METEOSAT IMAGERY THRU 092 SHOWED THIN BKN STJ CI NOSING INTO NWRN
EGYPT ON THE LEESIDE OF THE STJ AXIS THAT IS WELL TO THE W. THIS
CLDYNESS IS AN INDICATION OF INCREASED WND SPEEDS IN THE STJ FLOW,
AND CREATES THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MDT TURBC FROM 250 TO 450 IN
NRN AND CNTL AOR. THE MAIN PFJ AXIS IS STILL ON THE N SIDE OF THE
TA RUS MTNS IN TURKEY MOVG FURTHER NE OVR THE BLACK SEA. THERE IS
A BRANCH OF THE PFJ THAT DEPARTS THE MAIN FLOW OVR GREECE, AND
ENTERS THE AOR OVR JORDAN, THEN ACROSS CNTL IQ. VORTICITY MAX IMA
IN THE FLOW HAS ENHNCD CONV ACTIVITY THIS MORNG ALG SYRIAN/IQ BORDER.