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File: 120596_aacnu_01.txtSUBJECT: CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #355 DTG: 171201ZFEB91 SWO BULLETIN 45 FOXX31 XXXX 171143 KQCK JOAF #355 VALID: 17/1200Z TC 18/1200Z FEB 91 1. PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK: AT 00Z, THE FRONT HAD PENETRATED THE AOR. A LOW CENTER (1005MB) WAS ANALYZED AT 36N/4OE W/A COLD FRONT BULGING E OF 40E, RECURVING TO 30N/40E, THEN TRAILING INTO THE RED SEA NEAR 27N. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT (29N/44E), ANOTHER LOW (1015MB) FORMED AT THE SFC UNDER STRONG DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 20KT WINDS WERE REPORTED NEAR THIS LOW AND VIS WAS RESTRICTED IN BLOWING SAND. AT 00Z, IT WAS EVIDENT THAT THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT HAD OUTRUN THE SFC SYSTEM AS THE SFC LOW7FRONT MOVD INTO IRAG. THE STJ WAS STILL ACTIVE, HOWEVER, AND THERE WERE REPORTS OF RAIN AT STATIONS UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD ALONG THE IRAQ/SAUDI BORDER. FNOC MODELS INITIALIZED WELL S OF 30N AND APPROX 4 HRS SLOW N OF 3ON. EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED DECAY OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE OVR THE NRN AOR. IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN THE SFC REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT ON THE NEW FNOC RUN (OR ON THE OLD RUN), BUT 850MB WIND/STREAMLINE VALID AT 00Z SHOWS A TROF 29N/50E SW TO 25N/45E. THIS FEATURE IS LOST BY THE MODEL AFTER THAT. OVR THE NEXT 24HRS, FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NERN AOR WHERE AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING. ALONG THE ERN COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NE TO E AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS BY MID MORNING. 2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 18/00Z (26N/S2E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E) TEMP(C) 21 24 24 WAVE DIR 080 040 160 PERIOD SEC 4 8 4 HEIOHT FT 2 7 6 3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: STJ FLOW DURING LAST 12 HRS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS NE AFRICA AND CNTRL AOR. BRANCH OF PFJ CROSSING SYRIA AND XTRM NRN IRAQ PROVIDING URPER SUPPORT FOR SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IN IRAQ (SEE PARA 1). UPPER LVL RIDGE W/ BROAD AREA OF DIFLUENCE CONTINUES TO MOVE E FROM IRAQ INTO W IRAN CREATING MULTIPLE LYRD CICS CLOUDINESS. CLEARING LINE ON SATELLITE MOVING E ACRCSS NRN AOR AT 25KTS, DSPTS MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS W/PASSAGE OF VORT LOBE. AT 09Z, UPPER LVL CLEARING LIES OVR BAGHDAD (CENTERED NW THROUGH SE) ACROSS IRAQ. BKN SC CLOUDINESS OVR MED FORMING CLOSED - CELL SC IN POST FRONTAL COLD AIR OVR THE WRM WATERS, W/STJ AND ITS MINOR SHORT WAVES OVER LYING FRONTOLYSIZING FRONT IN NRN EGYPT. XTNSV BKN ACAS CIGS CONTINUED TO FORM AND ADVECT ENE INTO NW SAUDI, INTO THE KTO, THEN INTO THE ZAGROS MTNS. WEAKENING STJ FLOW OVR NE AFRICA INDICATED BY DECREASING CICS CIGS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SLT STJ RIDGING STILL EXISTS OVR NERN SAUDI, PERSIAN GULF, AND WRN IRAQ, W/THICK CICS CIGS ACROSS NRN SAUDI ARABIA AND KTO. IMBEDDED RASH IN NRN SAUDI ARABIA AND CNTRL IRAU THIS MORNING FROM VORT LOBE TAVERSING THROUGH IRAQ, PROVIDES SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF AOR REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE S OF 25N. -
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