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File: 120596_aacnv_01.txtSUBJECT: CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #356 DTG: FOXX31 XXXX 172240 KOHL JOAF #356 VALID18/0000Z TO 19/0000Z FEB 91 1. PART A SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK: 12Z SFC ANAL REVEALS A VERY DIFUSE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. LOW PRESSURE IS EVIDENT IN NORTH CNTRL SA (28N/43E 1015MB) WITH TROFG XTNDG SW TO 22N/40E WHERE IT JOINS WITH THE RED SEA TFOF. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN NWRN IRAN (APPROX 38N/48E, CNTRL PRESS UNKN) WITH WHAT REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT (FRONTOLYSIS) XTNDG THRU CNTRL IQ. IN THE UPR LVLS, THE STJ IS PROVIDING WEAK SUPPORT FOR THE TROFG IN NRN SA AND HAS INDUCED RAINSHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL SA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THE VCNTY OF THIS LOW/TROF WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SAND. FNOC MODELS (12Z RUN) INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH SFC LAWC AND SHOW A CONTD WEAK SFC PATTERN THRU THE NEXT 72HRS. IN THE UPR LVLS S/WVS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE STJ ENTERING NRN SA AND CAUSING INTMT MID/UPR LEVEL CIGS AND OCNL RASH. FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NERN AOR WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LGT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES. 2. SE SURFACE DATA VT 18/12Z (26N/S2E) (2N/64E) (18N/4OE) TEMP(C) 21 24 26 WAVE DIR 080 030 160 PERIOD SEC 4 4 4 HEIGHT FT 2 5 5 3. RART C METSAT DISCUSSION: 1930Z DMSP STJ EXTENDS FROM WEST CNTRL AFRICA NE TO 28N/10E WHERE IT BECOMES ZONAL EXTENDING ACROSS ERN SA WHERE IT TURNS NE TO AN APEX AT 30N/62E. EXTENSIVE COLD AIR SC (025/060) COVERS THE E CNTRL MED, TURKEY, SYRIA AND INTO NW IRAQ. MOST OF IRAQ IS CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BKN AC (100/140) JUST EAST OF BAGHDAD WHICH EXTENDS WELL INTO IRAN. BKN AC WITH ISOLD RASH COVER THE KTO. WRN, CNTRL, AND NERN SA IS COVERED BY BKN AC/AS (100/140). CNTRL AND NE SA HAS BKN CI/CS (250/300). SWRN CSTL AREAS OF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA HAS BKN CU/SC 020/050. MOST OF THE ARABIAN SEA IS COVERED BY SCT SC (030/050). THE RED SEA CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS MOVED NORTH AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN 21N AND 24N WITH SCT/BKN SC (020/040). 4. PART D AREA FORECASTS A. AREA 10: WINDS NWRN 02012KT NERN VRB05KT; 32012KT AFT 06Z CNTRL 35012KT SRN 12012KT WRN 30010KT VSBY/WX 7 NRN PATCHY 1/2FG 02Z-06Z WRN ISOLD STS/RASH 12Z-16Z - CNTRL/ERN ISOLD 5RASH CLOUDS NRN 2SC030/050 4AC100/140 2CI25O/300 CIGNOV100 CNTRL/ERN 4SC030/050 5AC100/140 5CI250/300 CIG100 ISOLD CIG030
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