CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #356

File: 120596_aacnv_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 2

SUBJECT: CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #356

DTG:  
 
 FOXX31 XXXX 172240
 KOHL JOAF #356 VALID18/0000Z TO  19/0000Z FEB 91
 1. PART A SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK:
 12Z SFC ANAL REVEALS A VERY DIFUSE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. LOW PRESSURE
 IS EVIDENT IN NORTH CNTRL SA (28N/43E 1015MB) WITH TROFG XTNDG SW TO
 22N/40E WHERE IT JOINS WITH THE RED SEA TFOF.  AN AREA OF LOW
 PRESSURE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN NWRN IRAN  (APPROX 38N/48E,  CNTRL PRESS
 UNKN) WITH WHAT REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT (FRONTOLYSIS) XTNDG THRU
 CNTRL IQ. IN THE UPR LVLS, THE STJ IS PROVIDING WEAK SUPPORT FOR THE
 TROFG IN NRN SA AND HAS INDUCED RAINSHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL SA.
 STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THE VCNTY OF THIS LOW/TROF
 WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SAND. FNOC MODELS (12Z RUN)
 INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH SFC LAWC AND SHOW A CONTD WEAK SFC
 PATTERN THRU THE NEXT 72HRS. IN THE UPR LVLS S/WVS WILL CONTINUE TO
 MOVE ALONG THE STJ ENTERING NRN SA AND CAUSING INTMT MID/UPR LEVEL
 CIGS AND OCNL RASH.   FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NERN AOR WHERE RESIDUAL
 MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LGT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
 CLEARING SKIES.
 2. SE SURFACE DATA VT 18/12Z
		 (26N/S2E) 	(2N/64E) 	(18N/4OE)
 TEMP(C) 	21 		24 		26
 WAVE DIR 	080 		030 		160
 PERIOD SEC 	4 		4		4 
 HEIGHT FT 	2 		5		5
 3. RART C METSAT DISCUSSION: 1930Z DMSP
 STJ EXTENDS FROM WEST CNTRL AFRICA NE TO 28N/10E WHERE IT BECOMES
 ZONAL EXTENDING ACROSS ERN SA WHERE IT TURNS NE TO AN APEX AT
 30N/62E. EXTENSIVE COLD AIR SC (025/060) COVERS THE E CNTRL MED,
 TURKEY, SYRIA AND INTO NW IRAQ. MOST OF IRAQ IS CLOUD FREE EXCEPT
 FOR BKN AC (100/140) JUST EAST OF BAGHDAD WHICH EXTENDS WELL INTO
 IRAN. BKN AC WITH ISOLD RASH COVER THE KTO. WRN, CNTRL, AND NERN SA
 IS COVERED BY BKN AC/AS (100/140). CNTRL AND NE SA HAS BKN CI/CS
 (250/300). SWRN CSTL AREAS OF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA HAS BKN CU/SC
 020/050. MOST OF THE ARABIAN SEA IS COVERED BY SCT SC (030/050).
 THE RED SEA CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS MOVED NORTH AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN
 21N AND 24N WITH SCT/BKN SC (020/040).
 4. PART D AREA FORECASTS
 A. AREA 10:
 WINDS		NWRN 	02012KT
 		NERN 	VRB05KT; 32012KT AFT 06Z
 		CNTRL 	35012KT
 		SRN 	12012KT
 		WRN 	30010KT
 VSBY/WX 	7
 		NRN PATCHY 1/2FG 02Z-06Z
 		WRN ISOLD STS/RASH 12Z-16Z -
 		CNTRL/ERN ISOLD 5RASH
 CLOUDS	 NRN 2SC030/050  4AC100/140 2CI25O/300 CIGNOV100
		 CNTRL/ERN 4SC030/050  5AC100/140 5CI250/300 CIG100
 			 ISOLD CIG030