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File: cia_64987_64987_01.txt
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Subject: CW WEAPONIZATION

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







AUG 90



EZ1



194829



SUBJECT: UPDATE ON CW WEAPONIZATION OF IRAQI

SURFACE-TO-SUFACE MISSILES







BOTTOM LINE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FOR PRACTICAL (WORSE CASE)

PURPOSES WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE PROBABILITY THAT IRAQ HAS AN

OPERATIONAL CW WARHEAD CAPABILITY FOR ITS SCUD B, AL HUSAYN,

AND AL ABBAS BALLISTIC MISSILES AND FOR THE FROG ROCKET AS

WELL. WE MUST ASSUME AT THIS POINT THAT IRAQ HAS THE

CAPABILITY TO INTERCHANGE CW AND HIGH EXPLOSIVE WARHEADS.



IRAQ HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF PEACE WITH IRAN TO

DEVELOP ADVANCED CW AGENTS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS AND MAY SOON

BECOME SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE MANUFACTURE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS.

BY 1992 IRAQ WILL HAVE COMPLETED SEVERAL FACILITIES THAT WILL

SUPPLY NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECURSOR CHEMICALS NEEDED TO SUPPORT

LARGE-SCALE CW AGENT PRODUCTION.







IRAQ IS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPING FIVE TYPES OF

SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT MAY BE

FITTED WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS. THIS WOULD AUGMENT ITS

EXTENSIVE SHORT-RANGE TACTICAL CAPABILITIES.





(IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPING A

MORE SOPHISTICATED CW STOCKPILE, IRAQ IS MAINTAINING A WIDE

RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS, INCLUDING BOMBS,

SHELLS, AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS (FROG).)







ALTHOUGH IRAQ HAS HAD GREAT SUCCESS WITH BALLISTIC

MISSILES ARMED WITH CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES, THE

INACCURACY OF ITS MISSILE SYSTEMS MAY ENCOURAGE THE USE OF

CHEMICAL WARHEADS, WHICH CAN DISPERSE LETHAL CONCENTRATIONS

OVER A LARGE AREA, ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE, RESULT IN GREATER

NUMBER OF HUMAN CASUALTIES AND PROVIDE A PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE.







IRAQ BELIEVES IT NEEDS CHEMICAL WEAPONS SUITABLE

FOR DETERRENT PURPOSES, PRIMARILY AGAINST ISRAEL AND AS A KEY

WEAPON SUPPORTING ITS DESIRED ROLE AS MILITARY PROTECTOR OF THE

ARAB WORLD, IRAQ BELIEVES ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE SUITABLE

DETERRENTS AGAINST ISRAEL          CONTINUED EMPHASIS

ON DEVELOPING NEW OR IMPORVED STRATEGIC SYSTEMS, SUCH AS LONGER

RANGE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES AND THE "BIG GUN" LONG-RANGE

ARTILLERY PROJECT, PROBABLY ARE TIED TO IRAQ'S DESIRE TO

IMPROVE THE LETHALITY AND RANGE OF ITS CHEMICAL THREAT. IRAQ

WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HIGH PRIORITY TO COMPLETING THE

DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN, SELF-SUFFICIENT CW PRODUCTION FACILITIES

AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS. THE TREND TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND

REDUNDANCY IN THESE AREAS PARALLELS IRAQ'S EFFORTS IN OTHER TOP

PRIORITY PROGRAMS, SUCH AS THE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE

PROGRAM.



WE JUDGE THAT TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAS

BEEN INCORPORATED INTO IRAQI MILITARY DOCTRINE. THE DECISION

TO USE CHEMICALS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE

IRAN IRAQ WAR WAS UNDOUBTEDLY INFLUENCE BY THE LACK OF A

SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN COUNTERCAPABILITY. WE BELIEVE IRAQ WOULD

BE LESS LIKELY TO INITIATE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN FUTURE

SCENARIOS IF ITS OFPONENT WAS ARMED WITH A CREDIBLE CW

CAPABILITY.







END OF MESSAGE







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