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File: cia_65082_65082_01.txt
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SUBJECT: IRAQI WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







SUMMARY: THE STATUS OF IRAQ'S FACILITIES TO PRODUCE WEAPONS

OF MASS DESTRUCTION--A PRELIMINARY POSTWAR ASSESSMENT







IRAQI FACILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHEMICAL,

BIOLOGICAL, AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WITH BALLISTIC

MISSILES HAVE SUFFERED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. IN MOST

CASES RESTORATION WOULD TAKE AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS

AND REQUIRE THE ASSISTANCE OF FOREIGN SUPPLIERS.

NEVERTHELESS, THE REMAINING VACCINE OR

PHARMACEUTICAL PLANTS (FOR EXAMPLE, THE SAMARRA

DRUG INDUSTRIES PLANT) COULD BE CONVERTED TO

MANUFACTURE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AGENTS--GIVEN THE

DUAL-USE NATURE OF EQUIPMENT TO MAKE THEM.







IRAQI FACILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES HAVE SUFFERED

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. IN MOST CASES, THE RESTORATION OF THESE

FACILITIES WOULD TAKE AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS AND REQUIRE

EXTENSIVE ASSISTANCE OF FOREIGN SUPPLIERS. OUR OVERALL

ASSESSMENT OF THESE RESPECTIVE AREAS IS AS FOLLOWS:



X--IRAQ'S ABILITY TO RESEARCH, DEVELOP, AND PRODUCE CW

AGENTS HAS BEEN SEVERELY REDUCED, BUT IT ALMOST CERTAINLY

MAINTAINS A VIABLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS STOCKPILE.



X--ALL FIVE FACILITIES SUSPECTED OF ASSOCIATION WITH IRAQ'S

BW PRODUCTION EFFORTS HAVE BEEN DAMAGED. IRAQ PROBABLY STILL

WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF

THESE AGENTS, HOWEVER, BECAUSE PRODUCTION OF BW AGENTS COULD

BE CONCEALED AT PHARMACEUTICAL PLANTS AND SMALL LABORATORIES

THAT ARE STILL INTACT.



X--IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION FOR A NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE

CAPABILITY--UNDER A BREAKOUT SCENARIO IN WHICH SAFEGUARDED

NUCLEAR MATERIAL IS DIVERTED FROM IRAQI RESEARCH REACTORS--

HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO IRAQ'S TUWAITHA NUCLEAR

RESEARCH CENTER AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROBABLY HAS SET BACK

IRAQ'S LONG-TERM WEAPONS PROGRAM



X--IRAQ'S PROGRAM TO MODIFY AND REENGINEER SCUD BS AT AT

TAJI HAS BEEN SEVERELY IMPAIRED. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO

MAJOR BALLISTIC MISSILE R&D AND PRODUCTION FACILITIES ALSO

HAS VIRTUALLY DESTROYED IRAQ'S ABILITY TO INDIGENOUSLY

PRODUCE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES. IRAQ PROBABLY CANNOT

REBUILD AND REEQUIP THESE FACILITIES IN FEWER THAN FIVE

YEARS

IRAQ'S EFFORTS TO DEVELOP AN INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION BASE FOR

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CLEARLY HAVE BEEN SET BACK

SERIOUSLY.





THE IRAQIS WILL NEED SUBSTANTIAL OUTSIDE ASSISTANCE.







END OF MESSAGE







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