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File: cia_64821_61934_01.txtSubject: IRAQI CW Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. SUMMARY: IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM--MORE SELF-RELIANT, MORE DEADLY IRAQ'S BATTLE-TESTED CHEMICAL WEAPONS CAPABILITY IS THE LARGEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE IRAQIS HAVE BEEN SEEKING NEW AGENTS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS AND MAY SOON BECOME SELFSUFFICIENT IN THE MANUFACTURE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. IRAQ: FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVE BOMBS--A THREAT TO INFANTRY IRAQ IS KNOWN TO HAVE FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVE (FAE) BOMBS, WHICH CAN RESEMBLE CHEMICAL BOMBS IN APPEARANCE AND OBSERVED EFFECTS. SUCH BOMBS ARE CONSIDERED BY SOME NATIONS AS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION; IRAQ ALSO MAY HAVE FAE ROCKETS. FAE BOMBS PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FORCES IN THE GULF REGION. 1. SUMMARY: IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM--MORE SELF-RELIANT, MORE DEADLY THE IRAQI CHEMICAL WARFARE (CW) PROGRAM, BY FAR THE LARGEST IN THE THIRD WORLD, IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SELF-SUFFICIENT. BY 1993 IRAQ WILL HAVE COMPLETED SEVERAL FACILITIES THAT WILL SUPPLY NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECURSOR CHEMICALS NEEDED TO SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE NERVE AGENT PRODUCTION USING RAW MATERIALS ACQUIRED IN THE COUNTRY. WITH OPTIMUM USE OF THEIR CW FACILITIES, THE IRAQIS MAY THEN BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE COMBINED NERVE AND BLISTER AGENT PRODUCTION LEVELS OF ABOUT 4,000 TONS PER YEAR--TWICE THE 2,000 TONS PER YEAR THEY WERE PRODUCING BY THE END OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR--WITHOUT HAVING TO WORRY ABOUT FOREIGN EMBARGOES OF MOST ESSENTIAL PRECURSORS. IN ADDITION, THE APPARENT INTEGRATION OF PESTICIDE PRODUCTION INTO IRAQ'S CW INFRASTRUCTURE WILL LEND AN AIR OF LEGITIMACY TO THE PROGRAM. SINCE THE CEASE-FIRE WITH IRAN, IRAQ HAS STRESSED DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED CW AGENTS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS. IT IS PURSUING PERSISTENT NERVE AGENTS SUCH VX THAT ARE MUCH MORE TOXIC THAN THE BLISTER AGENT MUSTARD AND THE NERVE AGENT SARIN--THE PRINCIPAL AGENTS NOW IN IRAQ'S ARSENAL. IN ADDITION, IRAQ PROBABLY IS DEVELOPING BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS WITH A LONGER SHELF LIFE, ENABLING IT TO MAINTAIN A SIZABLE STOCKPILE. IRAQ ALSO IS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPING FIVE TYPES OF SHORT-TO- INTERMEDIATE-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT MAY BE FITTED WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS. MISSILE-DELIVERED CW AGENTS WILL OFFER IRAQ GREATER STANDOFF CAPABILITY AND DETERRENT VALUE. IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPING A MORE SOPHISTICATED CW STOCKPILE, THE IRAQIS ARE MAINTAINING A WIDE RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS, INCLUDING BOMBS, SHELLS, AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS. APPARENTLY IRAQ BELIEVES IT NEEDS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR DETERRENT PURPOSES--PRIMARILY AGAINST ISRAEL'S NUCLEAR OPTION--AND AS A KEY WEAPON SUPPORTING ITS PROFESSED ROLE AS MILITARY "PROTECTOR" OF THE ARAB WORLD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CW, IRAQ ALSO HAS AGGRESSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AND BALLISTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS IN WHICH SELF-SUFFICIENCY IS A PRIMARY GOAL. THE HIGH PRIORITY ENJOYED BY THE CW PROGRAM PROBABLY ALSO REFLECTS IRAQ'S PLEASURE WITH THE RESULTS OF MASSIVE NERVE AGENT STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN FORCES IN 1988 AND SUBSEQUENT CW USE AGAINST KURDISH INSURGENTS. HOWEVER, IRAQ] WILLINGNESS TO INITIATE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ANY FUTURE CONFLICT UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE TEMPERED IF ITS OPPONENTS POSSESS CREDIBLE CW CAPABILITIES. THE IRAQI CW PROGRAM POSES A SERI REAT TO US FORCES AND INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. 2. IRAQ: FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVE BOMBS--A THREAT TO INFANTRY IRAQ DISPLAYED 250- AND 500-KG FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVE (FAE) BOMBS DEPICTED A THIRD, 330-KG FAE BOMB THAT APPEARED TO BE A COPY OF A SOVIET BOMB AND WAS NOTED TO BE "USED AGAINST PRESSURE- SENSITIVE TARGETS." IN OUTWARD APPEARANCE THESE LIQUID-FILLED BOMBS MAY BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM CHEMICAL BOMBS. THE BOMBS ARE IRAQI COPIES OF AN FAE BOMB DEVELOPED IN SPAIN. COMPONENTS FOR THESE BOMBS WERE PROVIDED BY SPAIN TO IRAQ DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR THROUGH EGYPT AND JORDAN. FAE BOMBS ARE MANUFACTURED AT THE QARAYAH AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR FACILITY IN IRAQ. THE IRAQIS HAVE STATED THAT THEY BELIEVE THEIR FAE BOMBS ARE FIVE TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE THAN ORDINARY BOMBS. AN IRAQI AIR FORCE ENGINEER STATED THAT THE BOMBS WERE EFFECTIVELY USED DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. COMMENT: IRAQ'S FAE BOMBS PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FORCES DEPLOYED IN THE GULF REGION. FURTHERMORE, TROOPS FACING FAE WEAPONS CAN TAKE NO PROTECTIVE MEASURES OTHER THAN TO SEEK REFUGE IN A HERMETICALLY SEALED BLASTPROOF CHAMBER. IRAQI USE OF FAE BOMBS COULD BE MISTAKEN FOR CHEMICAL AGENT USE THROUGH OBSERVATION OF EITHER WOUNDLESS DEATHS OCCURRING IN PROTECTED POSITIONS OR OF CHEMICAL INJURIES, RESPIRATORY FAILURE, SKIN BLISTERING, AND/OR CIRCULATORY FAILURE CAUSED BY THE UNEXPLODED COMPONENTS OF THE BOMB FILL. IRAQ MAY ALSO HAVE FAE ROCKETS FOR SOME MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS (MRLS) SUCH AS THE ARABEL 50--THE IRAQI VERSION OF THE YUGOSLAVIAN ORKAN 262-MM MRL. THE ARABEL 50 CAN DELIVER 95-KG WARHEADS TO A RANGE OF 50 KM. END OF MESSAGE 1.5 (c) 64821:61934
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