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Subject: IRAQI CW

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







FEB 91







SUBJECT: SPOT COMMENTARY: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT     FEBRUARY

1991

1 .THE FOLLOWING SPOT COMMENTARY

IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS







IRAQ'S MODIFICATIONS TO ITS SCUD MISSILES APPEAR TO BE PRODUCING

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES IN THE AIRFRAME THAT CAUSE THE WARHEAD TO

SEPARATE FROM THE BOOSTER DURING REENTRY.

IRAQ IS

USING THE AL-ABBAS VARIANT OF THE SCUD-B, CAPABLE OF CARRYING ABOUT

300 KILOGRAMS OF HIGH EXPLOSIVES ABOUT 600 KILOMETERS. MODIFICATIONS

TO EXTEND THE MISSILE'S RANGE, HOWEVER, HAVE MADE IT AERODYNAMICALLY

UNSTABLE IN REENTRY, WHICH, WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASED VELOCITY AND

HEAT FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE, RESULT IN STRUCTURAL FAILURE.

THE BOOSTER IMPACTS ABOUT 5 KILOMETERS UPRANGE OF THE WARHEAD

AND ABOUT 40 SECONDS LATER. ALTHOUGH THE BOOSTER POSES A HAZARD NEAR

ITS IMPACT POINT, ITS DAMAGE PROBABLY IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA.

SHOULD THE BOOSTER BE INTERCEPTED BY AN AIR DEFENSE MISSILE,

FRAGMENTATION COULD DAMAGE A WIDER AREA.







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