REPORT PREDICTING HOSTILITIES IN

File: cia_63667_63022_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: REPORT PREDICTING HOSTILITIES IN

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







SEP 90    DIRECTOR 273216







CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

WARNING: INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.







DIST:          SEPTEMBER 1990



COUNTRY:          IRAQ



SUBJ:          REPORT PREDICTING THAT HOSTILITIES IN THE

GULF ARE NEAR AND DISCUSSING THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS

BY IRAQ







4. AS FOR THE IRAQI USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, THE REPORT

CONCLUDES THAT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IS DIMINISHED IF

THE APPROPRIATE MEANS TO DELIVER THEM IS NOT AVAILABLE. IRAQ

POSSESSES THREE MEANS OF DELIVERY:



A. SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSLES: IRAQ HAS NOT UNTIL NOW BEEN

ABLE TO MOUNT CHEMICAL WARHEADS ON THE MISSILES IN ITS ARSENAL.

THESE MISSILES WILL ALSO BE IMPAIRED BY THE ABILITY OF U.S. FORCES TO

INTERFERE WITH THE MISSILES



B. AIRCRAFT: U.S. FORCES HAVE A CLEAR TECHNOLOGICAL

ADVANTAGE OVER IRAQI FORCES IN THE AIR. THE U.S. DOMINANCE IN THIS

ARENA MAKES AIRCRAFT DELIVERY OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY IRAQ EXTREMELY

DIFFICULT.



C. LONG RANGE ARTILLERY: IF IT IS USED EFFECTIVELY, IT

MUST STRIKE QUICKLY, BUT ITS IMPACT WILL ALWAYS BE LIMITED.



IN SUMMARY, THE REPORT SAYS THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE MORE USEFUL IN

PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR WITH THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES THAN IN A REAL WAR.







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