EFFECTS OF DESERT STORM ON IRAQ

File: cia_65139_65101_01.txt
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Subject: EFFECTS OF DESERT STORM ON IRAQ

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







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REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







FEB 91     DIRECTOR 518089







THE EFFECTS OF OPERATION DESERT STORM

ON IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AS OF

FEBRUARY1991

WE BELIEVE THAT IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION FOR A NUCLEAR

EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BUT NOT

NECESSARILY ELIMINATED BY OPERATION DESERT STORM' THE

SHORT-TERM OPTION LINGERS BECAUSE OF REMAINING FACILITIES AT

THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE

EXACT STATUS OF THE SAFEGUARD FUEL.







-- WE BELIEVE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IRAQ'S SAFEGUARDED

HIGHLY ENRICHED RESEARCH REACTOR FUELS WERE IN THE

REACTORS AT THE TIME OF THE INITIAL OPERATION DESERT STORM

RAIDS. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IRAQ MOVED THESE

FUELS PRIOR TO THE RAIDS ON TUWAITHA.

WHILE BOTH OF IRAQ'S KNOWN RESEARCH REACTORS PROBABLY

SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE TO CRITICAL COMPONENTS SUCH AS CONTROL

AND COOLING EQUIPMENT, THEIR FUELS COULD STILL BE RECOVERABLE'







RADIATION CONTAMINATION AT TUWAITHA

THE BOMBING OF THE

REACTORS AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER PROBABLY

WOULD HAVE RESULTED ONLY IN LIMITED LOCAL RADIATION

CONTAMINATION--ASSUMING THE FUELS WERE IN THE REACTOR PRIOR TO

THE ATTACK. ON THE BASIS OF          RESEARCH

REACTOR TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS PROBABLY LITTLE, IF

ANY, SIGNIFICANT RADIATION CONTAMINATION OUTSIDE OF A FEW

KILOMETERS FROM TUWAITHA. RADIATION CONTAMINATION AT TUWAITHA

WOULD COME LARGELY FROM THE POTENTIAL DISPERSAL OF THE IRT

REACTOR FUEL BECAUSE THE          FUEL IS ALMOST CERTAINLY

BURIED UNDER RUBBLE.

IN THE MOST SEVERE CASE--WHICH WE DON'T BELIEVE HAS

OCCURRED--THEM REACTOR WOULD HAVE BEEN OPERATING BEFORE THE

ATTACK AND THE FUEL AND OTHER CORE MATERIALS WOULD HAVE TAKEN A

DIRECT HIT. THEN, THROUGH A MOST UNFAVORABLE CHAIN OF EVENTS,

THESE MATERIALS WOULD BE SCATTERED AROUND TUWAITHA AND SOMEHOW

FORCED TO BURN' RADIOACTIVE PARTICLES COULD THEN ESCAPE THE

BERMED CONFINES OF TUWAITHA TO CONTAMINATE A FEW SQUARE

KILOMETERS OF AREA DOWN WIND.

ADVERSE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM THE BOMBING OF THE

REACTOR WOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE AREA' IN THE WORST-CASE

DISPERSAL OF RADIOACTIVITY JUST DESCRIBED,

SCIENTIST SPECIALIZING IN          REACTOR SAFETY ESTIMATED THAT THE

RADIATION DOSE WOULD NOT BE GREATER THAN I REM INTERNALLY AND

0.3 REM EXTERNALLY AT A DISTANCE OF 100 METERS FROM THE REACTOR

IF PERSONNEL DID NOT LINGER IN LEAVING THE AREA. ((NOTE: THE

REM IS A UNIT OF THE EFFECTS OF RADIATION. SPECIFICALLY, THE

REM IS NUMERICALLY EQUAL TO THE ABSORBED DOSE OF RADIATION

MULTIPLIED BY SOME FACTOR THAT SCALES THE EFFECT OF THE

RADIATION. TEN REM PER HOUR IS APPROXIMATELY ONE MILLION TIMES

GREATER THAN NATURAL BACKGROUND RADIATION AND MORE THAN ONE

THOUSAND TIMES GREATER THAN NORMALLY ACCESSIBLE AREAS IN A U.S.

NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. A TOTAL DOSE OF 600 REM WOULD HAVE A 50

PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BEING FATAL,          ALTHOUGH SUCH DOSES

ARE NOT TRIVIAL, THE CONDITIONS REQUIRED TO CREATE SUCH

CONTAMINATION ARE NOT VERY LIKELY TO HAVE OCCURRED. IN ANY

CASE, THE POTENTIAL RADIATION RELEASED FROM THE DESTRUCTION OF

THESE REACTORS IS MINISCULE IN COMPARISON WITH THE CHERNOBYL

ACCIDENT.

IT IS POSSIBLE,

THAT BOTH REACTORS WERE DAMAGED

TO THE EXTENT THAT IRRADIATED FUELS MIGHT BE EXPOSED. IF THE

REACTOR WERE TO SUFFER A DIRECT HIT, ITS BRITTLE FUEL

ELEMENTS COULD BE SHATTERED AND DISPERSED, POTENTIALLY

PRODUCING INITIAL RADIATION LEVELS OF THOUSANDS OF REM/HOUR IN

VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FUEL. IF THE FUEL WAS DISPERSED

OVER AN AREA OF ABOUT 100 SQUARE METERS, DOSE RATES OF 100

REM/HOUR COULD EXIST. THESE DOSE RATES WOULD DECLINE WITH

TIME; ROUGHLY, BY A FACTOR OF FOUR AFTER TWO MONTHS.

ALTERNATIVELY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IRRADIATED FUEL COULD BE

INTACT WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE BUILDING, POSING LITTLE OR NO

RADIOLOGICAL HAZARD'







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