IRAQI NUCLEAR PROGRAM

File: cia_65155_65109_01.txt
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Subject: IRAQI NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.





JAN 91







37. IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

LEADERSHIP IS SEEKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO MEET PERCEIVED SECURITY

NEEDS AND TO FURTHER REGIONAL AMBITIONS. WE HAVE CONCLUDED, BASED ON

BAGHDAD'S ACTIVITIES THAT

AN ACTIVE WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM EXISTS. IRAQ PROBABLY HAS THE

TECHNICAL COMPETENCE

TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR WEAPON BY THE

LATE 1990S WITH INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCED FISSILE MATERIAL.







38. SAFEGUARDED ACTIVITIES: IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS HOUSED

AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER, SOUTH OF BAGHDAD. THIS

FACILITY CONSISTS OF          5 MW NUCLEAR RESEARCH REACTOR

AND RADIOISOTOPE PRODUCTION LAB, THE 40-70 MW OSIRAK NUCLEAR RESEARCH

REACTOR BUILDING          THE 800 KW ISIS

REACTOR, AND ASSOCIATED LABORATORIES SUPPLIED IN THE 1970S. THESE

LABORATORIES HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO TREAT SOME RADIOACTIVE WASTE,

HANDLE AND PERFORM MEASUREMENTS ON IRRADIATED SAMPLES IN THE HIGH

ACTIVITY ANALYSIS LAB, PERFORM AT LEAST LABORATORY-SCALE

REPROCESSING, AND FABRICATE FUEL ELEMENTS.



39. ACTIVITIES OF CONCERN: SINCE THE BOMBING OF THE OSIRAK

REACTOR IN 1981, IRAQ HAS TURNED ITS ATTENTION TO DEVELOPING FISSILE

MATERIAL THROUGH URANIUM ENRICHMENT. BETWEEN 1984 AND 1986, THE

IRAQIS BUILT THREE NEW LABORATORIES AT TUWAITHA, TWO OF WHICH WE

BELIEVE MAY BE USED TO ESTABLISH A LABORATORYSCALE URANIUM ENRICHMENT

EFFORT. SINCE LATE 1988, IRAOI-DIRECTED INDIVIDUALS AND FIRMS HAVE

SOUGHT CENTRIFUGE TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT

BY 1989, IRAQ HAD PROBABLY PRODUCED ONE

CENTRIFUGE AS A PROTOTYPE, PROBABLY USING DESIGN INFORMATION OBTAINED

 ILLICITLY

40. BASED ON A VARIETY OF REPORTING SINCE MID-1990,WE BELIEVE

IRAQ'S GOAL IS TO DEVELOP AN ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY THAT WOULD USE

ABOUT 5000 CENTRIFUGES, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ABOUT 100-125 KG

HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM PER YEAR WITH MODIFIED VERSIONS OF THE

CENTRIFUGES. IF IRAQ WERE TO SUCCEED IN PROCURING THE

NECESSARY EQUIPMENT AND MATERIAL NEEDED TO ESTABLISH A URANIUM

ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY, WE BELIEVE BAGHDAD COULD CONCEIVABLY OVERCOME

ANY ENGINEERING PROBLEMS TO BEGIN INITIAL HEU PRODUCTION BY THE

MID-1990S, WITH FULL SCALE PRODUCTION PROBABLY TAKING TILL AT LEAST

THE LATE NINETIES. IRAQ' S          PURSUIT ABROAD OF THE BASIC

COMPONENTS AND SPECIALTY STEELS NECESSARY TO BEGIN BUILDING AN

ENRICHMENT C&PABILITY SUGGESTS AN EFFORT STILL DEPENDENT ON WESTERN

TECHNOLOGY.

41. IRAQ ALSO HAS AN EXTENSIVE CONVENTIONAL ARMAMENTS AND HIGH

EXPLOSIVE R&D FACILITIES THAT COULD BE USED TO DEVELOP THE NON-

NUCLEAR PORTIONS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVED. HIGH EXPLOSIVE R&D

FACILITIES THAT COULD BE INVOLVED IN SUCH WORK INCLUDE AL QA QA AND

AL HADRE.







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