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Subject: KUWAIT POLLUTION

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







PAGE 001

AUG 91







BODY  SUBJECT: KUWAIT:







SUMMARY



INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS OF JUNE 1991 WAS USED IN THIS REPORT.







POLLUTION FROM THE OIL WELL FIRES NOW BURNING IN KUWAIT HAS

IMPORTANT LOCAL AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES. EVEN IF ALL

FIRES ARE EXTINGUISHED BY MAY 1992,          A BROAD

REGION THAT WE HAVE DIVIDED INTO THREE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE

ELEVATED LEVELS OF SULFUR DIOXIDE AND SOOT.



THE HARDEST HIT AREA IS LIMITED TO KUWAIT AND NORTHERN SAUDI

ARABIA. IN THESE PLACES, POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS WILL REGULARLY

EXCEED US NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS. IN KUWAIT CITY, FOR

EXAMPLE, A FEW DAILY SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS WILL REACH

LEVELS--ESPECIALLY DURING THE FALL--25 TIMES ABOVE US STANDARDS, AND

US PARTICULATE CEILINGS WILL BE SURPASSED ON MORE THAN 100 DAYS. IN

AL AHMADI--IN THE HEART OF THE GREATER AL BURQAN OILFIELD--AIR

POLLUTION WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME, WITH PARTICULATE LEVELS

OCCASIONALLY TOPPING US STANDARDS BY A FACTOR OF 200 OR MORE. IN

SAUDI ARABIA, PARTICULATES WILL DEGRADE RA'S AL KHAFJI'S AIR QUALITY

BELOW US STANDARDS ON NEARLY 100 DAYS. IN KUWAIT CITY, POLLUTION

PROBLEMS WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE IN MID-OCTOBER, WHEN SEASONAL

WEATHER PATTERNS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND POLLUTANTS TO

BECOME TRAPPED UNDER TEMPERATURE INVERSION LAYERS.



THE MODERATELY AFFECTED REGION EXTENDS FROM THE DELTA OF THE

EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ--AND ADJACENT PARTS OF IRAN--SOUTH ACROSS

THE PERSIAN GULF ALMOST TO ABU DHABI AND INLAND IN SAUDI ARABIA

TOWARD RIYADH. IN THESE PLACES, SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS WILL

OCCASIONALLY REACH LEVELS THAT EXCEED US STANDARDS, BUT FOR THE MOST

PART WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEM. PARTICULATE LEVELS, HOWEVER, WILL

REGULARLY BREACH US MARKERS, OFTEN BY WIDE MARGINS. AREAS IN THE

MODERATELY AFFECTED REGION THAT ARE NORTH OF KUWAIT WILL EXPERIENCE

THEIR WORST POLLUTION IN THE FALL AND WINTER, WHILE AREAS TO THE

RECEIVE POLLUTION-BEARING WINDS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER.



THE SLIGHTLY AFFECTED REGION STRETCHES GREAT DISTANCES INTO

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ASIA AND ALSO INCLUDES MOST OF SAUDI

ARABIA, IRAQ, AND IRAN. ALTHOUGH POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE

ELEVATED AS A RESULT OF THE FIRES, LEVELS REMAIN CONSISTENTLY WITHIN

US LIMITS. THE PERSIAN GULF AND ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL EXPERIENCE

THEIR STEEPEST POLLUTION LEVELS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER, WHILE MORE

REMOTE SECTIONS OF THE SLIGHTLY AFFECTED REGION WILL MARK AN UPSURGE

IN POLLUTION IN THE FALL AND WINTER.



ON THE BASIS OF THESE POLLUTION LEVELS,

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WILL INCREASE IN THE HARDEST HIT REGION.

RELIABLE US EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES THAT HAVE ESTABLISHED A

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SULFUR DIOXIDE AND PARTICULATE LEVELS AND

SICKNESS AND DEATH FORM THE BASIS OF THE          FINDINGS THAT

HEALTH PROBLEMS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE

OILFIELDS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN AL AHMADI,          IN

ADDITION TO NORMAL RATES OF ILLNESS AND DEATH, OVER 25 PERCENT OF

THE POPULATION WILL BECOME ILL ENOUGH TO SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION AND

2 PERCENT WILL DIE. PROBLEMS DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN KUWAIT CITY, WHERE

7.6 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO GET SICK FROM THE

POLLUTION AND 0.6 PERCENT IS PROJECTED TO DIE. BEYOND KUWAIT, ONLY

RA'S AL KHAFJI FACES SIGNIFICANT INCREASED ILLNESS BECAUSE OF THE

SMOKE.



CROP DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE HARDEST HIT REGION. THE

WAFRAH DISTRICT OF KUWAIT, AN IRRIGATED AREA THAT MAINLY PRODUCES

VEGETABLES AND MELONS, WILL SEE YIELDS FALL BY 35 TO 70 PERCENT AS A

RESULT OF SULFUR DIOXIDE DAMAGE IF PLANTING RESUMES AS SCHEDULED.

CROPS ELSEWHERE IN KUWAIT, SAUDI ARABIA, IRAQ, AND IRAN WILL BE

LARGELY UNAFFECTED BECAUSE PREVAILING WINDS WILL CARRY POLLUTANTS

AWAY FROM MAJOR CROP AREAS DURING THE GROWING SEASON.



POLLUTION LEVELS WILL GROW IF FIREFIGHTERS EXPERIENCE GREATER-

THAN-EXPECTED DIFFICULTIES IN EXTINGUISHING THE FIRES. TROUBLESOME

FIRES, DIFFICULT OILFIELD OPERATIONAL CONDITIONS, BUREAUCRACY AND

MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS, OR UNPREDICTABLE EVENTS COULD DELAY PROGRESS.

IF SUCH DELAYS CAUSE FIGHTING EFFORTS TO TAKE TWO YEARS, THE

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS WILL WORSEN IN ALL THREE

REGIONS. IN THE HARDEST HIT AREA, THE NUMBER OF DAY DURING WHICH

AIR QUALITY WILL FAIL TO MEET US STANDARDS RISES 40 PERCENT AS

COMPARED TO THE ONE-YEAR TIMETABLE FOR EXTINGUISHING THE BLAZES. IN

THE MODERATELY AND SLIGHTLY AFFECTED AREAS, THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH

SUBSTANDARD AIR BECAUSE OF PARTICLES INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY, NEARLY

DOUBLING IN MANY CITIES. FIREFIGHTING ACTIVITY IN THE SUMMER MONTHS

WILL BE CRITICAL. IF UNFORESEEN EVENTS BRING SUCH EFFORTS TO A

VIRTUAL STANDSTILL, SEASONAL WIND PATTERNS AND TEMPERATURE

INVERSIONS WILL CAUSE POLLUTION LEVELS IN THE HARD-HIT REGION TO

ESCALATE BEYOND THOSE PROJECTED IN THE ONE-YEAR SCENARIO WHILE

MODERATELY AND SLIGHTLY AFFECTED AREAS SEE SHARP INCREASES IN THE

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH AIR DEGRADED BY PARTICULATES.







1.5 (c)

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