OVERVIEW OF GULF WAR

File: cia_71996_71996_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: OVERVIEW OF GULF WAR

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







PAGE 001

FEB 91







SUBJECT:  OVERVIEW OF THE GULF WAR







WE BELIEVE IRAQ'S STRATEGY IS STILL ONE OF SURVIVING THE

AIRSTRIKES AND WAITING FOR A BLTTER SITUATION IN A GROUND BATTLE.

THEY PROBABLY WANT TO CAUSE MAXIMUM CASUALTIES TO THE COALITION

FORCES WITH LITTLE REGARD FOR THEIR OWN CASUALTY RATE. THEY MAY ALSO

BE SEEKING THE BEST SITUATION TO CLAIM A POLITICAL VICTORY IN THE

FACE OF A MILITARY DEFEAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR US WOULD BE A

SCENARIO IN WHICH IRAQI FORCES WITHDREW FROM KUWAIT BUT CONTINUED TO

FIGHT FROM IRAQI SOIL, BEYOND THE MANDATE OF THE COALITION.

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS:







OUTBREAK OF DISEASE IN IRAQ NOT FROM BW



EGYPTIAN AND SOVIET PRESS RECENTLY HAVE CARRIED STORIES CLAIMING

THAT DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN IRAQ HAVE RESULTED FROM COALITION

AIRSTRIKES ON IRAQI BIOLOGICAL WARFARE FACILITIES.



WHILE OUTBREAKS OF DISEASE PROBABLY ARE OCCURRING IN BAGHDAD AND

OTHER IRAQI CITIES, THE CAUSE ALMOST CERTAINLY IS A LACK OF

SANITATION, NOT EXPOSURE TO BW AGENTS FROM DESTROYED FACILITIES.

MEDIA FOOTAGE SHOWING RAW SEWAGE FILLING SOME STREETS IN BAGHDAD AND

RESIDENTS WASHING COOKWARE IN THE POLLUTED TIGRIS RIVER STRONGLY

SUGGESTS THAT THE REPORTED SYMPTOMS DO NOT MATCH THOSE CAUSED BY ANY

BW AGENT BELIEVED TO BE IN IRAQ'S ARSENAL.







SADDAM'S STRATEGY:  HE HAS BASICALLY THE SAME THREE OPTIONS HE

HAD IN AUGUST:

--HE COULD STRIKE A DEAL, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY



--HE COULD ESCALATE THE WAR VIA CHEMICAL WEAPONS, WHICH IS ALSO

UNLIKELY WITH MOST OF HIS AIR FORCE IN IRAN, OR VIA A GROUND

OFFENSIVE, FOR WHICH HE WOULD HAVE TO OVERRULE HIS GROUND COMMANDERS



--HIS THIRD AND MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT HE WILL SIT TIGHT AND

WAIT FOR THE GROUND WAR.







END OF MESSAGE







1.5 (c)

71996-71996