IRAQI BW CAPABILITY

File: cia_62995_62995_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQI BW CAPABILITY

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







SUBJECT: IRAQI BW CAPABILITY







2.

IRAQ HAS NEVER

USED BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND PROBABLY CONSIDERS THEM TO BE AN

IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DETERRENT OR WEAPON OF LAST RESORT. SADDAM MAY

BE RELUCTANT TO INITIATE FIRST USE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST AN

OPPONENT CAPABLE OF RETALIATION, EVEN THOUGH HE MAY THREATEN THEIR

USE TO DETER ATTACK.

3. ANTHRAX PROBABLY WOULD BE EMPLOYED BY AIRCRAFT OR MISSILES

AGAINST STRATEGIC TARGETS BECAUSE THE AGENT'S SLOW EFFECTS LIMIT ITS

BATTLEFIELD UTILITY.

IF SADDAM

CONCLUDED HIS POSITION WAS BECOMING HOPELESS, HE MIGHT CONSIDER SUCH

AN ATTACK TO SHOCK THE COALITION INTO A CEASE-FIRE.

4. THE IRAQIS MIGHT CONSIDER THE USE OF BOTULINUM TOXIN--WHICH

CAN CAUSE EFFECTS IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW HOURS--BY AIRCRAFT OR

ARTILLERY AGAINST BATTLEFIELD TARGETS. HOWEVER, BAGHDAD HAS MORE

EXPERIENCE WITH CHEMICAL AGENTS AND PROBABLY WOULD PREFER TO USE

CHEMICAL RATHER THAN BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TACTICALLY.

5. THE EASY TRANSPORTABILITY OF THESE AGENTS ALSO OFFERS SADDAM

THE PROSPECT OF COVERTLY DELIVERING--THROUGH TERRORIST OR SPECIAL

FORCES PERSONNEL--BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ON TARGETS IN ALMOST ANY

COUNTRY.







7. IRAQ MAINTAINS THE MOST EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE

CAPABILITY IN THE THIRD WORLD. IRAQ IS ASSESSED TO HAVE SOME

BIOLOGICAL AGENT DELIVERY CAPABILITY, AND WE ASSESS THAT THESE

WEAPONS ARE MOST IMPORTANT AS A STRATEGIC DETERRENT. THE USE OF

BIOLOGICAL AGENTS BY IRAQ WOULD PROBABLY BE FOR LARGE AREA COVERAGE

IF SADDAM HUSAYN BELIEVES HIS REGIME IS THREATENED. HOWEVER, THE USE

OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS AGAINST MILITARY TARGETS PRIOR TO THE INITIATION

OF HOSTILITIES CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS COULD BE

LAUNCHED CLANDESTINELY.

8. IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED ANTHRAX SPORES AND BOTULINUM TOXIN AS

AGENTS. WE JUDGE THAT THE IRAQIS ARE LIKELY INVESTIGATING A RANGE OF

OTHER TOXINS AND LIVE AGENTS. THE IRAQIS HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN

DEVELOPING CLOSTRIDIUM PERFRINGENS AND MYCOTOXINS,







9. IRAQ HAS THE TECHNICAL CAPABILITY TO INCORPORATE ITS BW

AGENTS INTO A VARIETY OF WEAPONS.



CANDIDATE SYSTEM INCLUDE CLUSTER AND AERIAL BOMBS, ARTILLERY

ROCKETS, MISSILE WARHEADS, AND SPRAY SYSTEMS. BOTULINUM TOXIN CAN

CAUSE EFFECTS IN AS FEW AS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER EXPOSURE. THIS AGENT

MIGHT THEREFORE BE USED IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS.







10 WE BELIEVE IRAQ HAS THE NECESSARY TECHNICAL

EXPERTISE TO ITS BIOLOGICAL AGENTS INTO A MISSILE WARHEAD. THE

MISSILE'S POOR ACCURACY AND SMALL PAYLOAD LIMIT ITS EFFECTIVENESS FOR

DELIVERING CHEMICAL AGENTS, WHICH, UNDER OPTIMAL CONDITIONS, ARE

SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EFFECTIVE THAN AN EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF BIOLOGICAL

AGENT.









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