IRAQI CAPABILITIES CONVENTIONAL

File: cia_63910_63910_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQI CAPABILITIES CONVENTIONAL

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







JAN 91   DIRECTOR 452713







REGARDING IRAQI CAPABILITIES TO USE CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS IN

DELIVERING ARTILLERY SHELLS CARRYING BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL AGENTS

ON OUR FORCES IN THE GULF. WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE IRAQIS HAVE

PURCHASED IN TIMES PAST AN UNSPECIFIED NUMBER OF G-5 FIELD GUNS WHICH

HAVE A MAXIMUM RANGE OF UP TO 42 KILOMETERS. WE ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT

SHELLS FOR THE G-5 CAN BE MODIFIED TO CARRY HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE

CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL AGENTS.







IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

1. IRAQ HAS AN EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) PROGRAM. IRAQ

HAS PRODUCED LARGE QUANTITIES OF THE BW AGENTS BOTULINUM TOXIN AND

ANTHRAX SPORES. THE IRAQIS PROBABLY HAVE ALREADY FILLED SOME AERIAL

BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS WITH BW AGENTS. EVENTUALLY, THE IRAQIS

WILL USE BW AGENTS TO FILL THEIR SCUD-TYPE MISSILES.

2. IRAQ'S EXPERTISE WITH CHEMICAL WEAPONS ALMOST CERTAINLY

REINFORCED ITS DESIRE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS.

IRAQ'S AGGRESSIVE PURSUIT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDERSCORES OFFICIAL

IRAQI STATEMENTS THAT JUSTIFY THE USE OF ANY WEAPONS TO DEFEND ITS

TERRITORY. MOREOVER, IRAQ'S USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ITS WAR WITH

IRAN SHOWS THAT IRAQ IS PREPARED TO BACK RHETORIC WITH ACTION.

3. IRAQ BEGAN DEVELOPING ITS OFFENSIVE BW CAPABILITY IN THE

LATE 1970S, DESPITE HAVING SIGNED THE 1972 BIOLOGICAL AND TOXIN

WEAPONS CONVENTION THAT EXPRESSLY PROHIBITS SUCH ACTIVITIES. IRAQ

HAS DEVELOPED BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX SPORES AS BW AGENTS. THE

IRAQIS HAVE INVESTIGATED OTHER LIVING AGENTS AND TOXINS;

BOTULINUM

TOXIN DEGRADES FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON EXPOSURE TO THE ENVIRONMENT, WHILE

ANTHRAX SPORES CAN REMAIN VIABLE FOR WEEKS TO YEARS.

4. IRAQ PROBABLY BEGAN LARGE-SCALE PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES

AND BOTULINUM TOXIN          YEARS AGO.







5. WE BELIEVE THERE ARE OTHER FACILITIES INVOLVED IN THE

PROUCTION OF BW AGENTS,          FOR

EXAMPLE          BUILT A CLOSTRIDIUM VACCINE PLANT IN

THE SUBURBS OF BAGHDAD IN THE EARLY 1980S. THIS PLANT COULD EASILY

BE USED TO PRODUCE BOTULINUM TOXIN. THE PHARMACEUTICAL PLANT AT

SAMARRA HAS BEEN PRODUCING VARIOUS VACCINES AND ANTIBIOTICS FOR

YEARS; ITS EQUIPMENT COULD ALSO BE USED TO MAKE BW AGENTS.

IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

6. IRAQ HAS THE LARGEST CHEMICAL WARFARE (CW) PROGRAM IN THE

THIRD WORLD. IRAQ HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING UP TO          TONS

PER YEAR OF BLISTER AND NERVE AGENTS. DURING THE WAR WITH IRAN, IRAQ

USED A VARIETY OF CHEMICALLY-FILLED MUNITIONS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD,

IRAQ ALREADY HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF CHEMICALLY-FILLED MISSILE

WARHEADS.

7. THE WAR WITH IRAN PROMPTED IRAQ TO ACCELERATE ITS PROGRAM TO

DEVELOP A CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY. IRAQ HAS PRODUCED CHEMICAL

AGENTS AND MUNITIONS SINCE THE EARLY 1980S. THE MAIN CHEMICAL

WARFARE COMPLEX, LOCATED SOME 70 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST OF BAGHDAD NEAR

SAMARRA, HAS PRODUCED THOUSANDS OF TONS OF CHEMICAL AGENTS OVER THE

YEARS. SAMARRA IS AN EXTENSIVE FACILITY THAT CONTAINS CW AGENT

PRODUCTION, MUNITIONS FILLING, AND STORAGE AREAS. IRAQ PRODUCES THE

BLISTER AGENT MUSTARD AND THE NERVE AGENTS SARIN AND TABUN AT

SAMARRA.

8. IRAQ FIRST MADE MILITARY USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN 1983 AND

1984, LHEN IT BEGAN TO USE MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS AGAINST IRANIAN

FORCES. IN FACT, IRAQ WAS THE FIRST NATION TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON

THE BATTLEFIELD. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THESE CHEMICAL ATTACKS WAS

MINIMAL AT FIRST, BUT THE IRAQIS GAINED EXPERIENCE IN THE USE OF

CHEMICAL WEAPONS THROUGHOUT THE WAR. CHEMICAL WEAPONS HELPED BRING

THE WAR WITH IRAN TO AN END IN 1988, WHEN IRAQ INCORPORATED USE OF

NERVE AGENTS INTO A SERIES OF OFFENSIVES.

9. IRAQ PROBABLY DECIDED TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS A FORCE

MULTIPLIER, TO COMPENSATE FOR IRAN'S MANPOWER ADVANTAGE. IRAQ'S USE

OF CW HELPED TO MINIMIZE IRAQI PERSONNEL AND LAND LOSSES BY STALLING

IRANIAN HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS. IRAQI CW USE WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY

LIMITED IRANIAN CW PROTECTIVE CAPABILITY AND IRAN'S INABILITY TO

RETALIATE IN KIND ON ANY APPRECIABLE SCALE.

10. IRAQ HAS A VARIETY OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DELIVERY SYSTEMS

AVAILABLE. IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, IRAQ USED AERIAL BOMBS, ARTILLERY

AND MORTAR ROUNDS, AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS FILLED WITH CW

AGENTS. IN ALL PROBABILITY, IRAQ ALREADY HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF

WARHEADS AVAILABLE FOR ITS SCUD-TYPE MISSILES.

11. IN APRIL 1990, SADDAM HUSAYN ANNOUNCED THAT IRAQ HAD BINARY

CHEMICAL WEAPONS. IRAQ PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST SOME BINARY

WEAPONS, MOST LIKELY CONTAINING THE NERVE AGENT SARIN. CURRENTLY,

IRAQ HAS A STOCKPILE OF          TONS OF CW AGENT, EQUALLY DIVIDED

BETWEEN BLISTER AND NERVE AGENTS.







END OF MESSAGE







1.5(c)

63910:63910