IRAQI SPECIAL WEAPONS

File: cia_65279_65279_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQI SPECIAL WEAPONS

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







FEB 91   DIRECTOR 492438







SUBJECT: EVALUATION OF IRAQI SPECIAL WEAPONS CAPABILITIES







1.          BELIEVE THAT IRAQ HAS SOME CHEMICAL--

AND POSSIBLY BIOLOGICAL--WARHEADS FOR SCUD-TYPE MISSILES

IRAQ SUCCESSFULLY TESTED A CHEMICAL WARHEAD EARLY LAST

YEAR. BY NOW, BAGHDAD PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST A LIMITED

NUMBER OF THESE WARHEADS.







3. HOWEVER, IRAQ MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY EFFECTIVELY USING CBW

WARHEADS. THE PATRIOT WILL PROBABLY INTERCEPT THEM AT ALTITUDES TOO

HIGH TO CAUSE GROUND-LEVEL CONTAMINATION, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR A

BIOLOGICAL WARHEAD.







5. OUR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL THE IRAQI MISSILES

LAUNCHED AT ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA ARE BREAKING UP DURING REENTRY,

AND THE WARHEAD IS PROBABLY SEPARATING UNINTENTIONALLY ON MOST OF THE

LAUNCHES. THE SEPARATION MAY CAUSE THE FUSE, REGARDLESS OF THE TYPE,

TO FAIL DEPENDING ON THE HEIGHT OF SEPARATION AND WHERE ON THE

MISSILE THE SEPARATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE INCOMING WARHEADS ON

THESE LAUNCHES DID NOT FUSE ON IMPACT BECAUSE THE ELECTRIC POWER TO

THE WARHEAD WAS CUT DURING SEPARATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM COULD ARM

ITSELF.

6. WHILE AN IMPACT FUSE CAN BE USED FOR CHEMICAL WARHEADS, THE

AREA OF LETHAL CONTAMINATION WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED.







AT THE

EXPECTED          INTERCEPT ALTITUDE OF A PATRIOT MISSILE, MOST BULK-

FILL CW AGENTS WOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. UPPER-

ALTITUDE WINDS WOULD TEND TO BLOW BOTH CW AND BW AGENTS OFF-TARGETS,

AND ANY CW AGENT THAT DID REACH THE GROUND PROBABLY WOULD BE SO

WIDELY DISPERSED AS TO BE RELATIVELY INEFFECTIVE. TO ILLUSTRATE, A

WARHEAD THAT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED 300 KG OF VX COULD EFFECTIVELY COVER

ABOUT 1.5 SQUARE KILOMETERS; SPREADING THIS AMOUNT OVER THE 60

SQUARE-KILOMETER-AREA          WOULD YIELD A NEARLY HARMLESS

CONCENTRATION.







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