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Subject: IRAQI NUCLEAR

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







FEB 91           DIRECTOR 515885







SUBJECT:







WE BELIEVE THAT IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION FOR A NUCLEAR

EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BUT NOT

NECESSARILY ELIMINATED BY OPERATION DESERT STORM. THE SHORT-TERM

OPTION LINGERS BECAUSE OF REMAINING FACILITIES AT THE TUWAITHA

NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT STATUS OF

THE SAFEGUARDED FUEL.







 --WE BELIEVE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IRAQ'S SAFEGUARDED HIGHLY

ENRICHED RESEARCH REACTOR FUELS WERE IN THE REACTORS AT THE

TIME OF THE INITIAL OPERATION DESERT STORM RAIDS. HOWEVER,

WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IRAQ MOVED THESE FUELS PRIOR TO THE

RAIDS ON TUWAITHA.



WHILE BOTH OF IRAQ'S KNOWN RESEARCH REACTORS PROBABLY SUSTAINED

MAJOR DAMAGE TO CRITICAL COMPONENTS SUCH AS CONTROL AND COOLING

EQUIPMENT, THEIR FUELS COULD STILL BE RECOVERABLE







4. RADIATION CONTAMINATION AT TUWAITHA.



THE BOMBING OF THE           -SUPPLIED IRT AND          SUPPLIED ISIS

REACTORS AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER PROBABLY WOULD HAVE

RESULTED ONLY IN LIMITED LOCAL RADIATION CONTAMINATION-







THERE

IS PROBABLY LITTLE, IF ANY, SIGNIFICANT RADIATION CONTAMINATION

OUTSIDE OF A FEW KILOMETERS FROM TUWAITHA. RADIATION CONTAMINATION

AT TUWAITHA WOULD COME LARGELY FROM THE POTENTIAL DISPERSAL OF THE

IRT REACTOR FUEL BECAUSE THE ISIS REACTOR FUEL IS ALMOST CERTAINLY

BURIED UNDER RUBBLE.







ADVERSE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM THE BOMBING OF THE REACTOR WOULD

ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE AREA. IN THE WORST-CASE DISPERSAL OF

RADIOACTIVITY

THE RADIATION DOSE WOULD NOT BE

GREATER THAN I REM INTERNALLY AND 0.3 REM EXTERNALLY AT A DISTANCE OF

100 METERS FROM THE REACTOR IF PERSONNEL DID NOT LINGER IN LEAVING

THE AREA







END OF MESSAGE







1.5 (c)

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