IRAQI CW AND BW

File: 061896_cia_68414_68414_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQI CW AND BW

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







AUG 90       CIA 230833







SUBJECT: IRAQ'S POTENTIAL FOR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE







KEY JUDGMENTS



IRAQ HAS SUBSTANTIAL CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITIES THAT, AS

DEMONSTATED IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, IT IS PREPARED TO USE. IRAQ ALSO

HAS SOME BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BUT HAS NEVER USED THEM IN COMBAT.



IN COMBAT WITH US AND ALLIED FORCES



CHEMICAL WEAPONS:



X--THE EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IRAQI FORCES GAINED IN USING

CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN WOULD BE APPLIED AGAINST US AND ALLIED

FORCES.



X--IRAQ'S FORCES WOULD BE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO USE CHEMICAL

WEAPONS IN ANY DEFENSIVE SITUATION IN IRAQ OR KUWAIT WHERE THEY WERE

BEING PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED OFFENSIVE.







X--THEY WOULD BE HIGHLY LIKELY TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS AN

INTEGRAL PART OF ANY OFFENSIVE INTO SAUDI ARABIA.



X--ONCE THE IRAQI FORCES HAD BEGUN USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS

AGAINST ALLIED FORCES, WE ANTICIPATE THEY WOULD BE WILLING TO USE

THEIR ENTIRE CHEMICAL ARSENAL, INCLUDING MISSILES WITH CHEMICAL

WARHEADS.



BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:



X--BECAUSE IRAQ HAS NEVER USED BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, WE HAVE

LITTLE TO GO ON REGARDING HOW OR WHETHER SADDAM WOULD USE THESE

WEAPONS AGAINST US AND ALLIED FORCES. HE PROBABLY CONSIDERS THEM TO

BE WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT, PERCEIVING A GREATER RISK OF

RETALIATION.



X--ALTHOUGH MORE TOXIC THAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS, BIOLOGICAL

WEAPONS HAVE LESS UTILITY ON THE BATTLEFIELD BECAUSE THEIR EFFECTS

DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOR DAYS. THUS, WE JUDGE IRAQ WOULD BE UNLIKELY

TO USE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST US OR ALLIED FORCES ON THE

BATTLEFIELD.



IN THE CURRENT, NONCOMBAT SITUATION:



X--THE IRAQIS ARE NOT LIKELY TO USE EITHER CHEMICAL OR

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OVERTLY.



X--IF THE TRADE EMBARGO BEGINS TO CAUSE MAJOR DISRUPTIONS,

HOWEVER, SADDAM CAN BE EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE OR LESS EXPLICIT

THREATS TO USE CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO RETALIATE AGAINST

THOSE RESPONSIBLE.



X--IF IRAQ'S CONDITION CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, THE

POSSIBILITY THAT SADDAM WOULD ORDER COVERT CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL

WEAPON ATTACKS AGAINST US OR OTHER ALLIED TARGETS WOULD INCREASE.



X--SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD COVERTLY DELIVER

CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO SELECTED TARGETS IN ALMOST ANY

COUNTRY.



LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING







SADDAM

HUSAYN, WHO PERSONALLY CONTROLS THE RELEASE OF BOTH KINDS OF

WEAPONS, WOULD USE SECURE MEANS TO ORDER THEIR USE.







END OF MESSAGE







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