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Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST BRIEF          FEBRUARY 1991.

CONTENTS







5. IRAQ: SADDAM AND OPTIONS FOR SURPRISE







A SCUD MOBILE ERECTOR-LAUNCHER.

AND SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF SUPPORT EQUIPMENT

IN A SMALL MILITARY INSTALLATION          OF AL QURNAH







COMMENT:  THIS INSTALLATION PROBABLY SERVES AS A SUPPORT BASE

FOR SCUD UNITS OPERATING IN THE AL QURNAH AREA. ALL SCUDS LAUNCHED

FROM THIS AREA DURING THE CONFLICT HAVE BEEN TARGETED AT DHAHRAN.







DAMAGE TO BW PLANT



A MAJOR PORTION OF A VACCINE PLANT

IN ABU GHURAYB, WEST OF BAGHDAD, HAS BEEN DESTROYED.







THE IRAQIS PROBABLY

HAVE USED THIS VACCINE PLANT TO PRODUCE THE BW AGENT BOTULINUM

TOXIN.







5. IRAQ: SADDAM AND OPTIONS FOR SUPRISE



THE IRAQI PRESS CLAIMS SADDAM STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT SURPRISES

IN STORE: THE FOLLOWING SUGGEST WHAT HE MIGHT DO.



SADDAM COULD TRY TO BRING TEL AVIV INTO THE CONFLICT BY USING

CHEMICAL WEAPONS. HE MAY BE RELUCTANT TO USE THEM. IN PART OUT OF







FEAR OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION. AND PROBABLY STILL HOPES A FEW MORE

ATTACKS WITH CONVENTIONALLY ARMED SCUDS WILL ACCOMPLISH THE

OBJECTIVE. SADDAM COULD ALSO TRY VIOLATING ISRAEL'S LONGSTANDING

TRIPWIRE BY MOVING AIR OR GROUND FORCES INTO JORDAN OR TRY MOVING A

SCUD LAUNCHER INTO JORDAN .



SADDAM ALMOST CERTAINLY ALSO HOPES TO BRING IRAN INTO THE

CONFLICT AGAINST THE COALITION. ISRAELI INTERVENTION IS THE EVENT

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE THAT END. BUT TO ENSURE SUCCESS HE MIGHT

DAMAGE SHIA MUSLIM HOLY SITES AND BLAME COALITION AIR RAIDS.



TO RAISE THE COST OF THE WAR TO COALITION MEMBERS IMMEDIATELY,

IRAQ MIGHT TRY TO EXPAND THE GROUND WAR WITH LARGER ATTACKS.

POSSIBLY MULTIDIVISIONAL IN SIZE. OR USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST

RIYADH OR DHAHRAN IN THE HOPE OF CAUSING PANIC IN SAUDI CITIES. HE

ALSO MIGHT INTENSIFY THE TERRORIST CAMPAIGN AGAINST US AND COALITION

ASSETS. OR TRY TO ASSASSINATE COALITION LEADERS, OR ATTACK TURKEY

FOR ITS SUPPORT TO THE COALITION.



SADDAM ALMOST CERTAINLY VALUES THE SURVIVAL OF HIS REGIME ABOVE

ALL: HE HAS NOT YET SEEN IT IN JEOPARDY. BUT IF HE DOES HE MIGHT

REQUEST A CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE. HE COULD CLAIM HIS WEEKS OF

RES ISTANCE AS A VICTORY FOR ALL ARABS AND THEN TRY TO PROLONG

WITHDRAWAL NEGOTIATIONS. ALTERNATIVELY, HE MIGHT ANNOUNCE OR CONDUCT

A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT. LEAVING THIRD-RATE UNITS TO

CONTINUE A GROUND CAMPAIGN FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.



THE IRAOI PRESIDENT APPEARS LEAST LIKELY TO MAKE A SURPRISE

MOVE IN THE DIPLOMATIC ARENA. HE PROBABLY WILL NOT AGREE TO A

COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT UNLESS HE SUFFERS A CATASTROPHIC

MILITARY LOSS. BAGHDAD ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO USE ITS

REMAINING DIPLOMATIC. BA'TH PARTY, AND OTHER PROPAGANDA ASSETS TO

ARGUE THAT COALITION FORLES ARE ATTACKING SHIA MUSLIM HOLY SITES,

KILLING CIVILIANS, AND TRYING TO DESTROY IRAQ. 



SADDAM WILL SEEK TO DRAW THE COALITION INTO A GROUND WAR AND

ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TRYINC TO BRING IRAN AND ISRAEL INTO

THE CONFLICT. HE PROBABLY WILL VIEW THE WAR IN TERMS MORE POLITICAL

THAN MILITARY. HOWEVER, INSPIRED BY ANWAR EL SADAT. WHO POLITICALLY

"WON" THE 1973 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR DESPITE MILITARY DEFEAT.



IRAQ: REMOTE OPTIONS



ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY, SADDAM HUSAYN COULD PURSUE OPTIONS THAT WOULD

HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT IF SUCCESSFUL. RUMORS ABOUND THAT HE MAY

HAVE SUCH DRAMATIC WEAPONS AS LARGE FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVES, STOCKS OF

AMMONIUM NITRATE EXPLOSIVES. A FUNCTIONING SUPERGUN, OR SS-12

MISSILES. MEASURES WITHIN HIS CAPABILITIES INCLUDE:



--DEMONSTRATING NEW STRATEGIC WEAPONS. SADDAM HAS THREATENED TO

USE HIS ENTIRE ARSENAL AGAINST THE COALITION TO HIGHLIGHT THE COSTS

OF A WAR. HE HAS CLAIMED HIS MISSILES CAN CARRY CHEMICAL,

BIOLOGICAL, AND NUCLEAR WARHEADS. HE MAY TRY TO DEMONSTRATE

STRATEGIC WEAPONS, SUCH AS BIOLOGICAL AGENTS, TO CREATE A LARGE

EXPLOSION AND CLAIM IT WAS NUCLEAR. OR TO SAY HE HAS USED THE

FISSILE MATERIAL FROM TUWAITHA FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON.



--FIRING MISSILES HE MIGHT HAVE POSITIONED IN SUDAN,

MAURITANIA, OR YEMEN AT COALITION MEMBERS.



--BLOCKING OR MINING A MARITIME CHOKEPOINT SUCH AS THE SUEZ







1.5(c)

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