MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

File: 062096_cia_68737_68737_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







PAGE 001

TOT:          AUG 90      CIA







BODY  SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST AREA BRIEF          FOR          AUGUST

1990.



CONTENTS



1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT







1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT



THE HARSH RHETORIC OF SADDAM HUSAYN MARKS AN EFFORT TO BROADEN

ARAB POPULAR SUPPORT FOR HIS POSITIONS; THE IRAQIS MAY HAVE DEPLOYED

SCUD MISSILES WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS.







SADDAM'S SPEECH



SADDAM'S RHETORIC YESTERDAY WAS HIS MOST INFLAMMATORY SINCE THE

INVASION OF KUWAIT. HE ADVOCATED A MUSLIM HOLY WAR AGAINST US FORCES

IN SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INTERESTS EVERYWHERE. SADDAM CALLED FOR

ALL ARABS TO REVOLT AGAINST THE US PRESENCE IN SAUDI ARABIA AND

"SAVE MECCA FROM OCCUPATION"--HIS FIRST DIRECT THREAT AGAINST

RIYADH.



COMMENT: SADDAM IS APPEALING TO PAN-ARAB SENTIMENTS AGAINST

FOREIGN INTERVENTION IN A BID TO BROADEN ARAB SUPPORT AT THE MASS

LEVEL AND TO DEFLECT CRITICISM OF THE INVASION. HIS SPEECH, WHICH

ECHOES THE ANTI-KUWAITI PROPAGANDA BEFORE THE INVASION, MAY SIGNAL

THE BEGINNING OF BAGHDAD'S EFFORTS TO CREATE A PRETEXT FOR INVADING

SAUDI ARABIA. THREATS BY IRAQI SUPPORTERS AGAINST US AND OTHER

WESTERN INTERESTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL RISE IN THE WAKE OF SADDAM'S

SPEECH.



MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS







REPUBLICAN GUARD TROOPS HAD BEEN TRAINING FOR THE INVASION OF KUWAIT

FOR TWO MONTHS. THE IRAQI TROOPS WERE TOLD THEIR TRAINING WAS TO

PREPARE FOR COUNTERING A POSSIBLE ISRAELI ATTACK.



COMMENT:



IT IS LIKELY THAT IRAO'S BALLISTIC MISSILES HAVE CHEMICAL

WARHEADS AVAILABLE AND THAT AT LEAST A FEW OF THOSE WEAPONS ARE NOW

DEPLOYED. BAGHDAD WOULD HAVE TO MOVE THE MISSILES INTO SOUTHEASTERN

IRAQ OR KUWAIT TO ATTACK TARGETS IN SAUDI ARABIA.







THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF

THE EXTENT OF IRAQI PRE-INVASION PREPARATIONS. IRAQI MILITARY

PLANNERS ATTRIBUTE MUCH OF THEIR SUCCESS IN THE LATE STAGES OF THE

IRAQ-IRAN WAR TO THOROUGH PLANNING.



DECONTAMINATION

EQUIPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCUD IS NOT UNUSUAL, AS IT IS USED IN

THE EVENT OF A SPILL DURING THE LOADING OF THE VOLATILE PROPELLANT.

WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED IS RELATED TO THE

HANDLING OF CHEMICAL WARHEADS, IT IS JUST AS LIKELY AN INDICATOR OF

PROPELLANT HANDLING.







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