DISCUSSION OF SADDAM'S INTENTION

File: 062096_cia_68840_68840_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: DISCUSSION OF SADDAM'S INTENTION

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







PAGE 001

FEB 91     CIA







CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY







COUNTRY:  IRAQ/FRANCE



SUBJ:  PLANNED DEPARTURE FROM PARIS OF IRAQI EMBASSY PERSONNEL



DOI:   EARLY FEBRUARY 1991







TEXT: 1. IN THE WAKE OF BAGHDAD'S 6 FEBRUARY 1991 ANNOUNCEMENT OF

THE SEVERING OF RELATIONS WITH SEVERAL OF THE NATIONS ALLIED AGAINST

IRAQ IN THE GULF WAR, IRAQI EMBASSY PERSONNEL IN PARIS MET TO DISCUSS

THEIR DEPARTURE.







THE EMBASSY STAFF WAS

TOLD          THAT THE ENTIRE STAFF WOULD BE LEAVING IN ABOUT A

WEEK. THE EXACT DATE OF DEPARTURE WAS NOT FIXED AS THE EMBASSY HAS

YET TO RECEIVE ITS OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE IRAQI MINISTRY OF

FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND HAS NOT YET COORDINATED THE DEPARTURE OF EMBASSY

PERSONNEL WITH THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT. IRAQI OFFICIALS EXPECT THE

OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS TO ARRIVE          AND BELIEVE THEY

WILL BE DIRECTED TO TRAVEL TO EITHER AMMAN OR TUNIS. OFFICE

EQUIPMENT AND HOUSEHOLD EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BE SHIPPED VIA ROYAL

JORDANIAN TO VIENNA AND THEN ON TO AMMAN.







2. IN GENERAL CONVERSATION AROUND THE EMBASSY, EMBASSY STAFF

BELIEVE IRAQI PRESIDENT ((SADDAM)) HUSAYN MAY HAVE DECIDED TO CLOSE

THE EMBASSY ONLY THE DAY BEFORE THE EMBASSY WAS INFORMED. WHICH IS

WHY THEY HAD NOT YET RECEIVED OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS.

CONCERN AT THE SEVERING OF DIPLOMATIC TIES AND

BELIEVE THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD. THEY

SPECULATED THAT ONCE SADDAM NO LONGER RECOGNIZES OTHER COUNTRIES, HE

WILL BE LESS INHIBITED IN ATTACKING THEM ON THE BATTLEFIELD.

EXPECT THAT SADDAM MAY LAUNCH AN ALL-OUT ATTACK AGAINST

FORCES, POSSIBLY INCLUDING CHEMICAL WEAPONS. THEY BELIEVE

THE IRAQI ARMY HAS NOT BEEN DESTROYED AND IS STILL CAPABLE OF:

ATTACKING. (SOURCE COMMENT: THE ABOVE COMMENTS

REPRESENT PERSONAL OPINION AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY BASED ON ACCESS TO

PRIVILEGED INFORMATION.







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