ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DEPOS

File: 062096_cia_68957_68957_01.txt
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Subject: ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DEPOS

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







PAGE 001

APR 91      CIA







CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY







COUNTRY: IRAQ



SUBJ:   ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DEPOSITION AT GROUND LEVEL

RESULTING FROM A HYPOTHETICAL BOMB ATTACK ON AN IRAQI

NUCLEAR REACTOR







SUMMARY:          ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTISTS HAVE CALCULATED THE DEPOSITION

AT GROUND LEVEL OF RADIONUCLIDES RESULTING FROM AN HYPOTHESIZED

EXPLOSION OF THE IRAQI NUCLEAR REACTOR ISIS. THE CALCULATIONS ASSUME

THAT A HIGH EXPLOSIVE BOMB MAKES A DIRECT HIT ON A FULLY-OPERATIONAL

REACTOR WORKING AT 100 PERCENT CAPACITY.

DISPERSION OF CONTAMINANTS,

TAKE INTO

ACCOUNT ACTUAL FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR THE PERSIAN GULF

REGION FOR THE TIME PERIOD          THE DEPOSITION OF

THE RADIONUCLIDES

COVERS A WIDE AREA IN IRAQ, TURKEY, SYRIA AND PORTIONS OF IRAN AND

KUWAIT.







2.          ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTISTS IN EARLY FEBRUARY 1991

CALCULATED THE DISPERSION EFFECTS AT GROUND LEVEL OVER THE PERSIAN

GULF REGION OF RADIONUCLIDES FROM AN HYPOTHESIZED EXPLOSION AT THE

IRAQI NUCLEAR REACTOR ISIS IN JANUARY 1991.







A SCENARIO IN WHICH A          HIGH

EXPLOSIVE (HE) BOMB MAKES A DIRECT VERTICAL HIT ON THE REACTOR.

THE REACTOR IS FULLY ON-LINE AND IS WORKING

AT FULL CAPACITY WHEN THE BOMB HITS.







5. AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DISPERSION OF RADIONUCLIDES







ENCOMPASSES NORTHERNMOST IRAQ AND MUCH OF

SOUTH CENTRAL TURKEY, AS WELL AS A PART OF EASTERN SYRIA. BEYOND

THIS, PORTIONS OF TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAQ, AND NORTHWESTERN IRAN







WIND EFFECTS CAUSED A LEVEL

CONTAMINATION TO

LAP AT THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF KUWAIT AND TO COVER AN IMMENSELY

LARGER AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IRAQ THAN IN         PREVIOUS

SIMULATIONS.







END OF MESSAGE







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