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Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







TOT:          JAN 91







SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST BRIEF          JANUARY 1991.







5. IRAQ:  SADDAM'S PROPAGANDA AND PLANNING STRATEGY

6. IRAQ:  NUCLEAR COMPLEX







1. KUWAIT: POTENTIAL DANGER OF TOXIC GAS AND SMOKE



SABOTAGED KUWAITI OIL WELLS AND BURNING OIL IN THE IRAQIS'

DEFENSIVE TRENCHES COULD POSE HEALTH AND OPERATIONAL DANGERS TO

COALITION FORCES. ACCORDING TO          PROJECTIONS, THE

CONCENTRATION OF HYDROGEN SULFIDE FROM UNCAPPED NONOURNING OIL WELLS

COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE NERVE, EYE, AND LUNG DAMAGE WITHIN 200

FEET OF THE WELLS. BURNING WELLS AND TRENCHES WOULD PRODUCE SMOKE

PLUMES--SOME HIGH IN SULFUR DIOXIDE- -THAT COULD EXTEND OVER TENS OF

MILES DOWNWIND AND 2 TO 5 MILES HIGH.



COMMENT: HYDROGEN SULFIDE CONCENTRATION WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR

THE SOURCE, WHILE SULFUR DIOXIDE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST WHERE THE

PLUMES DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. PROBABLY SEVERAL MILES DOWNWIND.

KUWAITI WELLS HIGH IN HYDROGEN SULFIDE ARE PRIMARILY IN THE AL

MANAQISH AND UMM GUDAYR OILFIELDS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KUWAIT.







WINDY CONDITIONS--COMMON

DURING THE DAY--WOULD DISPERSE THE GASES AND DIMINISH THE DANGER.

BUT THE LIGHT WINDS TYPICAL AT NIGHT WOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO DO SO.







5. IRAQ: SADDAM'S PROPAGANDA AND PLANNING STRATEGY



AS SADDAM HUSAYN TELLS IRAQIS TO BRACE FOR A LONG AND

COMPREHENSIVE WAR. SOURCES OF VARYING RELIABILITY SUGGEST HE INTENDS

TO SEEK A MILITARY CONCLUSION, EMPHASIZING A COSTLY GROUND BATTLE,

AND HAS NO FALLBACK DIPLOMATIC POSITION.







SADDAM SAYING HE WOULD NOT WITHDRAW FROM KUWAIT OR CAPITULATE,

IRAQ

MIGHT BE DESTROYED. BUT SADDAM WOULD ENSURE THAT NONE OF THE

COALITION FORCES SURVIVED.



ONE IRAQI AMBASSADOR HAS SAID IRAQ WILL FIGHT "TO THE LAST

CHILD." ANOTHER SAID LAST THURSDAY THAT THE MISSILE ATTACK ON

ISRAEL WAS JUST A START AND PREDICTED THE WAR WOULD BE LONG AND

BAGHDAD WOULD USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.



WOO THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF MUSLIMS . . .



IRAQ'S PRESS EMPHASIZES THAT THE US IS ATTACKING MUSLIM HOLY

SITES AND CHRISTIAN CHURCHES, THAT IRAQ HAS YET TO UNLEASH ITS

AWESOME WEAPONS, AND THAT THE REAL BATTLE WILL BE DECIDED ON THE

GROUND, WHERE IRAQ CLAIMS ITS 60 DIVISIONS FACE ONLY 14 FROM THE

COALITION. THE MEDIA ALSO HAVE INTENSIFIED THEIR ANTI-ISRAELI AND

ANTI-SAUDI RHETORIC. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PRESS CLAIMED THERE WOULD

BE NO RESTRICTIONS ON THE WEAPONS IRAQ WOULD USE AND PROMISED NEW

"SUPRISES." A SENIOR BA' TH PARTY OFFICIAL ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY

THAT HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF WEAPONS WERE BEING DISTRIBUTED TO







BAGHDAD RESIDENTS.



. . . AND SHOW NO SIGN OF WEAKNESS



SADDAM IS TRYING TO PROJECT AN IMAGE OF STRENGTH.

DETERMINATION, AND CAPABILITY TO WITHSTAND MILITARY ATTACKS BY THE

COALITION; BOOST CIVILIAN AND MILITARY MORALE; AND WARN HIS

OPPONENTS AGAINST TRYING TO EXPLOIT PERCEIVED WEAKNESS. HE IS ALSO

PREPARING IRAQIS FOR ANTICIPATED ISRAELI STRIKES. WHICH HE ALMOST

CERTAINLY HOPES WILL FORCE THE ARAB BACKERS OF THE COALITION OUT OF

THE WAR. HE PROBABLY BELIEVES HE CAN SURVIVE A COALITION AIR

CAMPAIGN WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO CAUSE A STALEMATE IN A GROUND WAR.

HE PROBABLY DOES NOT FULLY COMPREHEND THE DAMAGE COALITION AIRPOWER

CAN INFLICT WITH CONTINUAL RAIDS, IN PART BECAUSE COMMANDERS,

RELUCTANT TO BEAR HIM BAD NEWS. MAY NOT BE TELLING HIM THE FULL

EXTENT OF DAMAGE.



MORE MISSILE STRIKES LIKELY



SADDAM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRYING TO ABSORB THE INITIAL BLOWS

WHILE STRIKING AT TARGETS WITH POLITICAL OR PROPAGANDA VALUE.

DRAMATIC CHANGES IN COURSE ARE UNLIKELY AS LONG AS HE BELIEVES THAT

THE AIR CAMPAIGN IS NOT CRIPPLING HIS ABILITY TO DEFEND IRAQ AND

KUWAIT.







6. IRAQ:  NUCLEAR COMPLEX DAMAGED BUT NOT DESTROYED



COALITION AIRSTRIKES

HAVE NOT

OBLITERATED BAGHDAD'S POTENTIAL TO BUILD NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES,







IF THE

REACTOR FUELS WERE REMOVED FROM TUWAITHA BEFORE HOSTILITIES ERUPTED,

IRAQ COULD RETAIN A SHORT-TERM NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY--SIX

MONTHS TO A YEAR. BUT PROBABLY LONGER. IF NOT, THE DAMAGE PROBABLY







WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY ANY EFFORT TO USE THE FUELS.



A LOSS OF THE FACILITIES AND EQUIPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE

URANIUM ENRICHMENT EFFORT MAY SET BACK IRAQ'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS

PROGRAM BY SEVERAL YEARS--PERHAPS LONGER IF COLLATE

SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE IS SEVERE.

HOWEVER, HAVE DESCRIBED A NUMBER OF SECRET NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN

IRAQ          THE DAMAGE          COULD

BE OFFSET IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT SUCH FACILITIES ARE

OPERATIONAL.







72260-72260

1.5 c

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