MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

File: 062096_cia_72262_72262_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







TOT:          DEC 90







SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST BRIEF          DECEMBER 1990.



CONTENTS



1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT







3. IRAQ:  POSSIBLE CW ROUND FOR ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADE







1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT

INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE IRAQI SURPRISE







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TOT:          DEC 90







IRAQI PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSAYN IS

PLANNING A MILITARY DEMONSTRATION--POSSIBLY A MISSILE TEST--THIS

CHANGING THE COURSE OF THE CRISIS:







--IN PRESS INTERVIEWS LAST WEEKEND, SADDAM RENEWED HIS THREATS

TO ATTACK ISRAEL IF IRAQ WERE ATTACKED AND EMPHASIZED THE NEED TO

RESTORE ARAB CONTROL OF "PALESTINE." IRAQ'S GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED

PRESS YESTERDAY REPEATED BAGHDAD'S INSISTENCE THAT SADDAM'S 12

AUGUST PROPOSAL BECOME THE BASIS FOR RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT.



COMMENT:  SADDAM WILL TRY TO USE ANY "SURPRISES" TO REGAIN

CONTROL OF THE CRISIS AND SHIFT ATTENTION TO ISSUES HE WANTS

ADDRESSED.

BAGHDAD'S CONTINGENCY PREPARATION OF ITS SCUD FORCE.          COULD

BE RELATED TO A COMING TEST. WHICH SADDAM WOULD USE TO

UNDERSCORE A NEW DIPLOMATIC DRIVE AIMED AT THE MEMBERS OF THE

SECURITY COUNCIL.







3. IRAQ:  POSSIBLE CW ROUND FOR ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADE



FOR SEVERAL YEARS IRAQ HAS

STOCKPILED ROCKET-PROPELLED-GRENADE (RPG) ROUNDS CONTAINING "GAS."

THE ROUNDS REPORTEDLY WERE USED IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. PRIMARILY AS A

DEFENSIVE WEAPON AGAINST TANKS.          THAT

ABOUT ONE-FOURTH OF THE GAS ROUNDS WERE DUDS. THOSE THAT DID EXPLODE

USUALLY WERE EFFECTIVE IN STOPPING ARMORED VEHICLES. SOME OF THE GAS

 ROUNDS WERE STORED AT A DEPOT NEAR AL FALLUJAH.



COMMENT:

THE ROUNDS CONTAIN LETHAL BLOOD AGENTS. EITHER







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TOT:          DEC 90



CYANOCEN CHLORIDE OR CYANOGEN BROMIDE. A CHEMICALLY FILLED RPG ROUND

IS TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE AND COULD BE EFFECTIVE AGAINST ARMORED

VEHICLES AND PROTECTIVE STRUCTURES IF THE OCCUPANTS WERE NOT WEARING

GAS MASKS.







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