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File: 062596_cia_73885_73885_01.txt
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Subject: STATUS OF IRAQ'S WMD FACILITIES

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







DIRECTORATE OF

INTELLIGENCE







THE STATUS OF IRAQ'S FACILITIES

TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS

DESTRUCTION: A PRELIMINARY

POSTWAR ASSESSMENT



A REFERENCE AID







CONTENTS







SUMMARY   iii

SCOPE NOTE  vii

INTRODUCTION  1

IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY  1

IRAQ  BIOLOGICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY  17

IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM  27







SCOPE NOTE

THIS REFERENCE AID SHOWS THE STATUS OF IRAQ'S OVERALL INDUSTRIAL CAPABILITY

TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

SYSTEMS.







IRAQ'S ROAD TO RECONSTRUCTION OF SUCH MILITARY PROGRAMS

WOULD HAVE TO BEGIN WITH THE FORMIDABLE TASK OF RECONSTRUCTING A SUBSTAN-

TIAL PORTION OF ITS OWN CIVIL INFRASTRUCTURE (SUCH AS ELECTRIC POWER, OIL

PRODUCTION, AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS). THIS PAPER WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED

BY OTHER, MORE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSES THAT WILL ASSESS LONG-TERM PROSPECTS

FOR IRAQ'S NUCLEAR, CW/BW,          PROGRAMS.







THE STATUS OF IRAQS FACILITIES

TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS

DESTRUCTION: A PRELIMINARY

POSTWAR ASSESSMENT



INTRODUCTION



MOST OF IRAQ'S PRODUCTION FACILITIES FOR WEAPONS

MASS DESTRUCTION AND MUCH OF THE EQUIPMENT ACQUIRED

FROM OTHER COUNTRIES TO EQUIP THESE FACILITIES WERE

DAMAGED EXTENSIVELY BY COALITION AIRSTRIKE,



DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF PRODUCTION AT

EACH FACILITY, HOWEVER, THE SAME AMOUNT OF EXTERNAL

DAMAGE MIGHT CAUSE VASTLY DIFFERENT DEGREES OF DAM-

AGE TO OVERALL PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES.





IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WAREFARE CAPABILITY



COALITION AIRSTRIKES HAVE SEVERELY REDUCED IRAQ'S ABILI-

TY TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL WARFARE (CW) AGENTS, AND ITS

EFFORTS TO BECOME TOTALLY INDEPENDENT OF FOREIGN SUP-

PLIERS FOR ITS CW PROGRAM HAVE BE DELAYED INDEFI-

NITELY,







THE CW AGENT PRODUCTION BUILD-

INGS AT THE SAMARRA' SITE HAVE BEEN DAMAGED OR

DESTROYED.







THE

CHEMICAL WEAPONS FILLING AREA AT SAMMARRA' HAS ALSO

BEEN DESTROYED:







SEVERAL POSSIBLE CW STORAGE BUNKERS HAVE BEEN HEAVI-

LY DAMAGED.







WE ARE NONETHELESS

CONFIDENT THAT IRAQ STILL HAS A VIABLE CW AGENT

STOCKPILE.







IN ADDITION, THERE IS A CONTROVERSY WITHIN THE US

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ON THE CURRENT SHELF LIFE OF

IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT STOCKPILE. WE BELIEVE THAT THE

IRAQIS HAD ONLY A TEMPORARY PROBLEM WITH THE STABILITY

(THAT IS, LONG-TERM STORAGE) OF THEIR NERVE-AGENT-FILLED

WEAPONS







IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY



FACILITIES BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH

THE PRODUCTION OF BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) AGENTS WERE

DAMAGED BY AIRSTRIKES. SOME BW RESEARCH AND DEVEL-

OPMENT ACTIVITIES TOOK PLACE AT ONE OF THESE FACILITIES,







COALITION AIRSTRIKES UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE DAMAGED IRAQ'S

BW INFRASTRUCTURE.

THE IRAQIS COULD

PRODUCE THESE AGENTS AT OTHER FACILITIES. IN PARTICULAR,

THE SAMARRA' DRUG INDUSTRIES PLANT,







MOREOVER, IRAQ'S R&D CAPABILITY REMAINS

LARGELY INTACT.







IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM



WE BELIEVE THAT IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION 1 FOR A NUCLE-

 AR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED,

BUT NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. THE SHORT-TERM OPTION

CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED BECAUSE TWO REMAIN-

ING FACILITIES AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CEN-

TER ARE POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF RECOVERING HIGHLY EN-

RICHED URANIUM FROM RESEARCH REACTOR FUELS.

IRAQ'S SAFEGUARDED HIGHLY ENRICHED RE-

SEARCH REACTOR FUELS PROBABLY WERE IN THE TWO REACTORS

THAT WERE EXTENSIVELY DAMAGED AT THE TIME OF THE

INITIAL RAIDS.



THE PRECISE EFFECTS OF AIRSTRIKES ON IRAQ'S LONG-TERM

WEAPONS PROGRAM ARE UNKNOWN



DAMAGE

TO IRAQ'S TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER AND

OTHER NUCLCAR-ASSOCIATED FACILITIES PROBABLY HAS SET

BACK IRAQ'S LONG-TERM NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM BY

SEVERAL YEARS. THIS SETBACK HAS PROBABLY BEEN LENGTH-

ENED BY DAMAGE INFLICTED TO IRAQ'S SCIENTIFIC AND

INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INCLUDING ANY LOSS OF KEY

IRAQI SCIENTISTS.



1 IN THE SHORT TERM, IRAQ MIGHT DIVERT HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM

REACTOR FUELS (MONITORED UNDER IAEA SAFEGUARDS) FROM CIVILIAN

PROGRAMS TO A CRASH EFFORT TO DEVELOP ONE OR TWO NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE

DEVICES. IRAQ'S LONG-TERM PROGRAM RELIES ON DEVELOPING THE INFRA-

STRUCTURE TO PRODUCE FISSILE MATERIALS.





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