SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS

File: 070396_cia_73919_73919_01.txt
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Subject: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







20 FEBRUARY 1991



MEMORANDUM



SUBJECT: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS



1. CIA AND DIA AGREE THAT IRAQLS CURRENT STOCKS OF

MUSTARD ARE STABLE AND SHOULD REMAIN EFFECTIVE FOR SEVERAL

YEARS. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT PROVIDE A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT

INVENTORY, CIA ESTIMATES THAT THE STOCKPILE IS DIVIDED FAIRLY

EVENLY BETWEEN MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS



2. CIA AND DIA HAVE DIFFERENT ASSESSMENTS OF THE SHELF

LIFE OF IRAQ'S UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. BOTH AGENCIES AGREE THAT

IRAQ HAS ENCOUNTERED DIFFICULTY OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS WITH

THE SHELF LIFE OF ITS UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. DIA BELIEVES THAT

THE PROBLEM PERSISTS, THAT THE STOCKPILE OF NERVE AGENTS WILL

BE UNUSABLE BY LATE MARCH, AND THAT DAMAGE TO PRODUCTION

FACILITIES WILL FORCE THE IRAQIS TO RELY ON STOCKPILED AGENTS.

CIA BELIEVES THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEGMENT OF IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT

STOCKPILE CONSISTS OF BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS--WHICH WOULD NOT

BE SUBJECT TO DEGRADATION. CIA ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE SHELF

LIFE PROBLEM WAS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THAT THE IRAQIS EVEN NOW

MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE UNITARY AGENTS OF SUFFICIENT QUALITY BY

ADDING A STABILIZER OR IMPROVING THEIR PRODUCTION PROCESS.







SUBJECT:  SHELF LIFE OF IRAQLS CW AGENTS







5. DIA BELIEVES IRAQ HAS HAD INSUFFICIENT TIME TO PRODUCE

LARGE AMOUNTS OF BINARY CW AGENTS.







MEMORANDUM



SUBJECT:  IRAQI CBW STOCKPILE







CHEMICAL WEAPONS:







THE STOCKPILE PROBABLY IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN BLISTER

AN NERVE AGENTS. THE MOST LIKELY AGENTS ARE THE BLISTER AGENT SULFUR MUSTARD AND 
THE NERVE AGENTS SARIN AND GF. WE ASSESS THAT MOST OF THE SARIN AND GF ARE

WEAPONIZE IN BINARY FORM AND DO NOT NOT SUFFER FROM THE LIMITED SHELF-LIFE

PROBLEM PREVALENT DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. IRAQ

PROBABLY ALSO HAS SMALL QUANTITIES OF THE ADVANCED NERVE AGENT VX, AND MAY HAVE 
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF OTHER AGENTS IN ITS STOCKPILE.



IRAQ MOST LIKELY HAS WEAPONIZED THESE AGENTS IN AERIAL BOMBS, MORTAR ROUNDS,

ARTILLERY SHELLS AND ROCKETS, AND MISSILE WARHEADS.

WE BELIEVE THAT BOMBS AND ARTILLERY MAKE UP THE BULK OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL ARSENAL. TO

GIVE AN IDEA OF THE QUANTITIES OF MUNITIONS AVAILABLE, ONE TON OF AGENT WOULD BE 
ENOUGH TO FILL ROUGHLY TEN 500-KG BOMBS, 150 122-MM ARTILLERY ROCKETS,

OR 350 152-MM ARTILLERY SHELLS







BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:







THIS QUANTITY OF AGENT WAS PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE

CONFLICT, AND MOST OF IT PROBABLY REMAINS INTACT. WE ASSESS THAT THE LARGE MAJORITY

OF IRAQ'S BW AGENTS ARE IN WEAPONS SUCH AS AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY, AND POSSIBLY

MISSILE WARHEADS. A SMALL QUANTITY OF AGENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN BULK FOR

DISSEMINATION FROM SPRAY DEVICES







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