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File: 071596_cia_68274_68274_01.txt
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Subject: PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







DIRECTOR OF

CENTRAL

INTELLIGENCE







PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS

PROLIFERATION AND CONTROL







NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE







THIS NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE REPRESENTS

THE VIEWS OF THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

WITH THE ADVICE AND ASSISTANCE OF THE

US INTELIGENCE COMMUNITY.





DIRECTOR OF

CENTRAL

INTELLIGENCE







PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS

PROLIFERATION AND CONTROL







INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS OF 31 MAY 1991 WAS USED

IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS NATIONEL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.







THE FOLLOWING INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS PARTICIPATED

IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS MEMORANDUM:

THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

THE DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY

THE BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH,

DEPARTMENT OF STATE

OFFICE OF DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR INTELLIGENCE,

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY



ALSO PARTICIPATING:

THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR INTELLIGENCE,

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY

THE DIRECTOR OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE,

DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

THE ASSISTANT CHIEF OF STAFF, INTELLIGENCE,

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE



THIS ESTIMATE WAS APPROVED FOR PUBLICATION BY

NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD.







IRAQ

COALITION AIR ATTACKS DAMAGED IRAQ'S NUCLEAR, CHEMI-

CAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND BALLISTIC MISSILE PRODUCTION FACILI-

TIES. BAGHDAD DOES, HOWEVER, RETAIN SOME SPECIAL

WEAPONS CAPABILITIES. IN ONE DECADE, IRAQ WAS ABLE TO

SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP MANY KEY ELEMENTS OF SPECIAL

WEAPONS PROGRAMS







NUCLEAR. BEFORE THE WAR. IRAQ HAD THE MOST ADVANCED

NUCLEAR PROGRAM AMONG THE ARAB STATES







MUCH OF IRAQ'S ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY ES

CAPED BOMB DAMAGE







CHEMICAL. BEFORE 1991, IRAQ HAD THE LARGEST CW

PROGRAM IN THE THIRD WORLD. IT WAS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING          BLISTER AND NAME AGENTS

SINCE FULL-SCALED PRODUCTION BEGAN IN 1983.







IRAN-IRAQ WAR, IRAQ HAS BEEN DEVELOPING MORE AD-

VANCED AGENTS-PARTICULARLY THE TIME AGENT VX-

AND HAS BEEN ACTIVELY ASSEMBLING AN INDIGENOUS PRE-

CURSOR PRODUCTION CAPABILITY. ALTHOUGH KNOWN CW

PRODUCTION FACILITIES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED BY ALLIED

BOMBING, SIGNIFICANT STOCKS OF CW AGENTS AS WELL AS

PRODUCTION AND FILLING CAPABILITIES MOST LIKELY SUR-

VIVED.



BIOLOGICAL. WE BELIEVE IRAQ WEAPONIZED BW AGENTS,

INCLUDING BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX, AND DEVELOPED

OTHER BIOLOGICAL AGENTS.







SOME PRODUCTION CAPABILITY SURVIVED ALLIED

BOMBING







BALLISTIC MISSILES

IT HAD ACHIEVED THE CAPA-

BILITY TO PRODUCE MODIFIED SCUD-TYPE BALLISTIC MISSILES,

WARHEADS, AND LAUNCH-SUPPORT EQUIPMENT.







PRODUCTION FACILITIES WERE

HEAVILY DAMAGED DURING THE WAR







68274-68274

1.5(C)

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