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File: 071596_cia_71990_71990_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1

Subject: IRAQ AS A MILITARY ADVERSARY

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







NOV 90







BODY:

SUBJECT: IRAQ AS A MILITARY ADVERSARY







IN THE EVENT OF WAR, SADDAM WOULD STRIVE TO

INCREASE THE COSTS TO THE COALITION THROUGH ATTACKS BY AIR,

MISSILES, OR SPECIAL FORCES ON TROOPS, SHIPPING, OR OIL FACILITIES

IN SAUDI ARABIA. THESE ATTACKS, WHICH COULD INCLUDE THE USE

CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROBABLY WOULD OCCUR AT THE OUTSET OF CONFLICT.







IRAQ HAS A LARGE AND GROWING CAPABILITY TO UTILIZE WEAPONS OF

MASS DESTRUCTION--CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND POTENTIALLY NUCLEAR

WEAPONS. CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CAN BE DELIVERED BY

AIRCRAFT, ARTILLERY, AND PROBABLY SCUD MISSILES:



X--THE IRAQIS MAY BE PREPARED TO SUFFER SOME SETBACKS BEFORE

RESORTING TO CHEMICALS. HOWEVER, IRAQI TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL

WEAPONS IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN IF IRAQ SUFFERS SERIOUS BATTLEFIELD

DEFEATS.



X--TO COMPEL THE COALITION TO CALL FOR A CEASE-FIRE, SADDAM

MIGHT EMPLOY A BIOLOGICAL AGENT SUCH AS ANTHRAX AGAINST A COALITION

MILITARY BASE OR A SAUDI OIL FACILITY.







X--THE IRAQI ARMED FORCES HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN THE

USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES.







1.5(c)

71990-71990

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