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File: 071596_cia_75636_75636_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1

Subject: EFFECT OF PATRIOT INTERCEPT

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







EFFECT OF PATRIOT INTERCEPT OF IRAQI CW OR BW

MISSILE WARHEAD







THE US PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE MISSILE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN

ENGAGING IRAQI SCUD-TYPE MISSILES AT ALTITUDES          .

OF CONCERN IS THE PATRIOT'S ABILITY TO KILL CHEMICAL

WARHEADS. A PATRIOT INTERCEPT WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT EITHER

IN DETONATION OF THE INCOMING MISSILE WARHEAD OR IN NUMEROUS

HOLES IN THE WARHEAD AND MISSILE BODY. IN EITHER CASE, CW

OR BW AGENT CARRIED IN THE BALLISTIC MISSILE WOULD BE

RELEASED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.



IF THE PATRIOT WERE TO INTERCEPT A CHEMICAL WARHEAD

UNDER THE ABOVE CONDITIONS, THERE COULD ONLY BE A

GROUND-LEVEL CW HAZARD IF THE WARHEAD WERE FILLED WITH A

PERSISTENT CHEMICAL AGENT. A NONPERSISTENT AGENT THAT WAS

DISSEMINATED          WOULD NOT REACH THE

GROUND.



WE ASSESS THAT THE IRAQIS WOULD MOST LIKELY FILL AN SRBM

WARHEAD WITH EITHER THE NONPERSISTENT NERVE AGENT SARIN OR

THE SEMIPERSISTENT NERVE AGENT GF. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE--BUT

LESS LIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME--THAT THE IRAQIS COULD FILL

A MISSILE WARHEAD WITH THE NERVE AGENT







EITHER VX OR GF COULD CAUSE CASUALTIES IF INTERCEPTED AT

AN ALTITUDE          IF A CHEMICAL WARHEAD WERE INTERCEPTED

AT          THESE AGENTS WOULD LIKELY HAVE VERY MINIMAL OR NO

EFFECT AT GROUND LEVEL.



IF ONE OF THE INTERCEPTED SRBMs HAD A BW FILL,

CASUALTIES COULD RESULT







THE 350MM

PROJECTILE FOR THE SUPERGUN IS INTENDED FOR USE WITH BW

AGENTS.

BASED ON CALCULATIONS WE HAVE DONE FOR

IRAQ'S SCUD-TYPE MISSILES, WE ESTIMATE THAT THIS QUANTITY OF

ANTHRAX SPORES COULD, UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, LETHALLV CONTAMINATE AN AREA OF

SEVERAL HUNDRED SQUARE KILOMETERS







75636-75636

1.5(c)

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