Document Page: First | Prev | Next | All | Image | This Release | Search

File: 071596_cia_75701_75701_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1

Subject: WHY WMD WERE WITHHELD

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







MARCH 1991







MEMORANDUM



SUBJECT:  IRAQ:  WHY WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WERE

WITHHELD





1. THE PROSPECT OF COALITION RETALIATION PROBABLY DETERRED

SADDAM FROM EMPLOYING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AS PART OF

IRAQ'S INITIAL DEFENSE AGAINST A COALITION GROUND ADVANCE. ONCE

IRAQ'S FORWARD UNITS COLLAPSED A NUMBER OF FACTORS REINFORCED

IRAQI RELUCTANCE AND REDUCED IRAQI CAPABILITY TO EMPLOY CHEMICAL

OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS.



2. WHAT INDICATIONS DID WE HAVE OF IRAQI PREPARATIONS FOR

TACTICAL CHEMICAL WARFARE?



IT IS CLEAR          THAT THE RISK OF

IRAQI EMPLOYMENT OF AT LEAST CHEMICAL WEAPONS DURING THE WAR HAD

BEEN VERY HIGH. BAGHDAD'S PREPARATIONS FOR CHEMICAL WARFARE

INDICATE THAT USE OF CHEMICALS WAS CONSIDERED AN OPTION EARLY IN

THE CRISIS.







DECONTAMINATION SITES WERE

THROUGHOUT THE KUWAIT THEATER.







3. WHY DIDN'T IRAQ USE CW IN THE KUWAIT THEATER?



A VARIETY OF REPORTING INDICATES THAT BAGHDAD INITIALLY WAS

PROBABLY DETERRED FROM EMPLOYING CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

AS PART OF ITS FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION

THAT THE COALITION MIGHT RETALIATE MASSIVELY, POSSIBLY EVEN WITH

NUCLEAR WEAPONS.



THE

EXPECTATION OF US NUCLEAR RETALIATION WAS A COMMON

PERCEPTION          AND THAT THIS LED SADDAM TO

NOT USE CHEMICALS.



MANY IN

BAGHDAD BELIEVED THAT THE COALITION WOULD RETALIATE

IMMEDIATELY AND MASSIVELY AS SOON AS IRAQ EMPLOVED CHEMICAL

WEAPONS



IRAQI III CORPS PLANNING STATED THAT

CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE WAS NEVER DISCUSSED IN PLANNING

SESSIONS, AND CORPS STAFF ATTRIBUTED THIS TO SADDAM'S FEAR

OF US NUCLEAR RETALIATION.



4. IT APPEARS THAT SADDAM ESTABLISHED A THRESHOLD, HOWEVER,

AT WHICH HE WAS WILLING TO SET ASIDE HIS FEAR OF RETALIATION AND

USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.







CHEMICAL WEAPONS WOULD BE USED IF COALITION

FORCES PENETRATED INTO IRAQI TERRITORY. IRAQI PLANS AND

PREPARATIONS NOTWITHSTANDING, A NUMBER OF PRACTICAL FACTORS

PROBABLY CONSTRAINED BAGHDAD'S USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS ONCE THAT

THRESHOLD WAS CROSSED BY THE COALITION ADVANCES:



WEATHER CONDITIONS NEVER FAVORED THE USE OF CHEMICAL

WEAPONS. RAIN AND HIGH WINDS THAT MOSTLY BLEW TO THE NORTH-

-ONTO IRAQI UNITS OR TERRITORY--WOULD HAVE GREATLY REDUCED

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS.



THE BATTLE DEVELOPED SO RAPIDLY THAT BAGHDAD PROBABLY WAS

NEVER ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY TARGET COALITION FORCES.



IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, AIRCRAFT AND GUARD ARTILLERY WERE

BAGHDAD'S PRINCIPAL CHEMICAL DELIVERY MEANS. TOTAL

COALITION AIR SUPREMACY PRECLUDED AIR-DELIVERED CHEMICAL

WEAPONS AND MUCH OF THE GUARD ARTILLERY WAS DESTROYED BY AIR

ATTACK OR OVERRUN BY COALITION GROUND FORCES.







SUBJECT:  IRAQ:  WHY WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WERE

WITHHELD





REPORTS INDICATE THAT IRAQI CHEMICAL ATTACKS DURING THE WAR

WITH IRAN WERE NORMALLY PLANNED IN ADVANCE PRIOR TO DRAWING

CHEMICAL ROUNDS FROM THEATER RESERVES. THE DISRUPTION OF

IRAQI SUPPLY LINES AND THE LIGHTNING SPEED OF THE COALITION

CAMPAIGN MADE THIS IMPOSSIBLE.



5. WHY DIDN'T IRAQ USE CW ON BALLISTIC MISSILES?



SADDAM WAS PROBABLY SIMILARLY DISSUADED FROM LAUNCHING HIS

SCUDS WITH CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS OUT OF FEAR OF US OR

ISRAELI NUCLEAR RETALIATION. ONCE SADDAM REALIZED THAT

CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS HAD FAILED TO DRAG ISRAEL INTO WAR,

HE MAY HAVE CALCULATED THAT EVEN IF ISRAEL WAS FINALLY DRAWN INTO

THE WAR, RESORTING TO WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WOULD HAVE

CAUSED DISPROPORTIONATE DAMAGE TO IRAQ.







1.5(c)

75701:75701

Document Page: First | Prev | Next | All | Image | This Release | Search