CHEMICAL ATTACKS ON RESISTANCE

File: 110296_cia_72243_72243_01.txt
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SUBJECT: CHEMICAL ATTACKS ON RESISTANCE

NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.





DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE SPOT COMMENTARY



March 1991







IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT





CHEMICAL ATTACKS ON RESISTANCE LIKELY



COMMENT: SADDAM IS FACING THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT TO HIS 23-YEAR

RULE AND WILL NOT  HESITATE TO USE ANY MEANS AT HIS DISPOSAL TO

ENSURE HIS SURVIVAL. HE PROBABLY PERCEIVES HIS MILITARY

SITUATION AS INCREASINGLY DESPERATE, AND THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS

ARE NECESSARY TO PRESERVE HIS REGIME. HE PROBABLY CALCULATES

THAT HE HAS NOTHING TO LOSE POLITICALLY, AND THAT IF HE DOES NOT

SUCCEED IN STOPPING THE UNREST FROM SPREADING TO BAGHDAD, HE WILL

BE IN MORTAL DANGER.



USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN THE HOLY CITIES COULD

FURTHER INFLAME IRAQI SHIA INSURGENTS.





IRAQ DELIVERED CHEMICAL

WEAPONS-   ---- -- FROM AIRCRAFT

DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. IRAQ STILL HAS LARGE  NUMBERS OF FIXED

AND ROTARY-WING AIRCRAFT AVAILABLE TO DELIVER CHEMICAL MUNITIONS.

IRAQ ALSO COULD USE ARTILLERY TO DELIVER CHEMICAL MUNITIONS.



BECAUSE SARIN WOULD PROBABLY

DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR, THE THREE HOUR TIME PERIOD WOULD PERMIT

FORCES TO ENTER THE AREA WITHOUT PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT.





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