IRAN-IRAQ: CHEMICAL WARFARE CONTINUES

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SUBJECT: IRAN-IRAQ: CHEMICAL WARFARE CONTINUES

NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE





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IRAN-IRAQ: CHEMICAL WARFARE CONTINUES



SINCE 1983 CHEMICAL WEAPONS (CW) HAVE BEEN USED

SPORADICALLY IN KEY SITUATIONS IN THE IRAN-IRAQ

WAR, AND WE BELIEVE THEIR USE WILL CONTINUE.

ALTHOUGH BOTH NATIONS NOW POSSESS CHEMICAL WEAPONS,

IRAQ'S CW CAPABILITY IS FAR SUPERIOR TO THAT OF

IRAN.





RELIABLE REPORTING INDICATES THAT IRAQ HAS USED LETHAL

CHEMICAL WEAPONS (CW)AGAINST IRAN NUMEROUS TIMES SINCE IT

FIRST USE OF THE BLISTER AGENT MUSTARD IN AUGUST 1983. MORE

RECENTLY, IRAQ HAS USED CW, INCLUDING NERVE AGENTS,

THROUGHOUT THE FEBRUARY-MARCH 1986 IRANIAN OFFENSIVES,

CAUSING IRAN TO SUFFER ABOUT 8,000 CW-RELATED CASUALTIES.

ALTHOUGH CW USE IN THESE OFFENSIVES HAS BEEN HEAVIER THAN IN

PREVIOUS YEARS, IT HAS HAD A LESS DEFINITIVE EFFECT ON THE

COURSE OF BATTLE. THIS DECREASE IN EFFECTIVENESS HAS

RESULTED FROM:



POOR TACTICAL EMPLOYMENT.



LESSENED ELEMENT OF SURPRISE



INCREASED IRANIAN PREPAREDNESS.



POSSIBLE PROBLEMS WITH MUNITIONS, AGENTS, AND

DELIVERY TECHNIQUES.





IRAQ HAS NOT YET MASTERED THE TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL

WEAPONS, AND WE BELIEVE ITS PROFICIENCY IN USING THESE

WEAPONS WILL IMPROVE ONLY MARGINALLY WITH INCREASED

EXPERIENCE. DESPITE THE HEAVY USAGE, THESE CHEMICAL WEAPONS

HAVE NEITHER STOPPED THE IRANIAN ADVANCE NOR ENSURED A

SUCCESSFUL IRAQI COUNTERATTACK. WE DOUBT THAT THEIR USE WILL

BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DECIDING THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR.





IRAQ NOW POSSESSES ONE OF THE LARGEST CHEMICAL WEAPONS

INVENTORIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND HAS THE PRODUCTION

CAPACITY IN PLACE TO INCREASE ITS STOCKPILE SIGNIFICANTLY

OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. THESE CAPABILITIES PROVIDE IRAQ A

SUBSTANTIAL POTENTIAL TO SUPPLY OTHERS WITH CHEMICAL WARFARE

AGENTS AND TECHNOLOGY. WE BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THE CURRENT

REGIME IN IRAQ IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME A SUPPLIER, BUT THE 

POTENTIAL TO DO SO REMAINS.



BECAUSE THE POLITICAL COSTS OF CONTINUED CW USE HAVE BEEN SO

SMALL, WE DOUBT THAT IRAQ WILL ABANDON ITS USE OF CHEMICAL

WEAPONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FURTHERMORE, IRAQ

PROBABLY HAS NOW MADE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS IN ITS CHEMICAL

WEAPONS PROGRAM TO RENDER IT RELATIVELY IMMUNE TO THE FOREIGN

TRADE RESTRICTIONS. US AND WESTERN NATIONS' EFFORTS TO 

EMBARGO WESTERN PRECURSOR CHEMICALS HAVE NOT, AND PROBABLY

WILL NOT, CURTAIL IRAQ'S CW PROGRESS.





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