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File: 092596_cia_77501_77501_01.txtSubject: CIA BRIEFING BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 9 JULY 1996 Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. CIA BRIEFING BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 9 JULY 1996 DR. LASHOF, MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE, WE ARE PLEASED TO APPEAR BEFORE YOU THIS MORNING TO DISCUSS OUR ONGOING EFFORTS RELATED TO REPORTS OF POSSIBLE EXPOSURE OF OUR TROOPS TO CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL AGENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF. OUR DIRECTOR STRONGLY SUPPORTS CIA'S WORK ON THIS IMPORTANT ISSUE AND CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE US TO BRING FORTH IMPORTANT RESULTS OF OUR STUDY. TODAY WE WILL PROVIDE OUR KEY FINDINGS AND SOME NEW INFORMATION REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF CHEMICAL AGENTS AT KHAMISIYAH, MUHAMMADIYAT, AND AL MUTHANNA. KEY FINDINGS FIRST, OUR KEY FINDINGS. WE CONCLUDE THAT IRAQ DID NOT USE CHEMICAL AGENTS NOR WERE ANY AGENTS LOCATED IN KUWAIT. IN ADDITION, ON THE BASIS OF INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AND MODELING TO DATE, WE ASSESS THAT US TROOPS WERE NOT EXPOSED TO CHEMICAL AGENT RELEASED BY AERIAL BOMBING OF IRAQI FACILITIES. HOWEVER, WE HAVE IDENTIFIED AND WILL DISCUSS POTENTIAL FALLOUT CONCERNS IN THE CASE OF A REAR-AREA CHEMICAL WEAPONS STORAGE BUNKER IN SOUTHERN IRAQ THAT WAS DESTROYED BY US GROUND TROOPS SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THE WAR. CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN KUWAIT THEATER OF OPERATIONS WE CONCLUDE THAT IRAQ HAD CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT TWO SITES IN IRAQ WITHIN THE KUWAIT THEATER OF OPERATIONS (KTO). CHEMICAL WEAPONS WERE DESTROYED BY US FORCES AT ONE OF THESE--THE KHAMISIYAH (US NAME TALL AL LAHM) AMMUNITION STORAGE AREA. BOTH KHAMISIYAH AND THE SECOND SITE--THE AN NASIRIYAH AMMUNITION STORAGE DEPOT SW--WERE LARGE REAR-AREA DEPOTS NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE KTO IN IRAQ AND STORED MOSTLY CONVENTIONAL AMMUNITION. UNSCOM INSPECTED CHEMICAL MUNITIONS AT OR NEAR KHAMISIYAH IN OCTOBER 1991 AND IDENTIFIED 122MM SARIN/CYCLO-SARIN (GB/GF) NERVE AGENT-FILLED ROCKETS AND 155MM MUSTARD ROUNDS. AT THE TIME IT WAS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IDENTIFIED HAD BEEN PRESENT DURING THE WAR OR WHETHER, AS WAS SUSPECTED AT OTHER LOCATIONS, THE IRAQIS HAD MOVED THE MUNITIONS AFTER THE WAR AND JUST PRIOR TO THE 1991 UNSCOM INSPECTION. THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS ONLY CLEARED UP THROUGH THE RECENT COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF ALL INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION AND AN UNSCOM INSPECTION IN MAY 1996. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED BY UNSCOM DURING ITS OCTOBER 1991 INSPECTION. AT A PIT AREA ABOUT 1 KM SOUTH OF THE KHAMISIYAH STORAGE AREA, UNSCOM FOUND SEVERAL HUNDRED MOSTLY INTACT 122MM ROCKETS CONTAINING NERVE AGENT--DETECTED BY SAMPLING AND WITH CHEMICAL AGENT MONITORS (CAMS). IN AN OPEN AREA 5 KM WEST OF KHAMISIYAH; INSPECTORS FOUND APPROXIMATELY 6,000 INTACT 155MM ROUNDS CONTAINING MUSTARD AGENT, AS INDICATED BY CAMS. AT A THIRD LOCATION, A SINGLE BUNKER AMONG 100 BUNKERS, CALLED "BUNKER 73" BY IRAQ, REMNANTS OF 122MM ROCKETS WERE IDENTIFIED. THE 1991 INSPECTION, AND ALSO A 1992 INSPECTION IN WHICH UNSCOM DESTROYED ROCKETS IN THE PIT, LEFT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE MUNITIONS IN BUNKER 73 WERE CHEMICAL BECAUSE THERE WAS NO SAMPLING OR POSITIVE CAM READINGS AND INSPECTORS DID NOT DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF CHEMICAL MUNITIONS. THE IRAQIS CLAIMED DURING THE OCTOBER 1991 INSPECTION THAT COALITION TROOPS HAD DESTROYED BUNKER 73 EARLIER THAT YEAR. THESE IRAQI STATEMENTS WERE VIEWED AT THE TIME WITH SKEPTICISM BECAUSE OF THE BROAD, CONTINUOUS USE OF DECEPTION BY THE IRAQIS AGAINST UNSCOM. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DOD INVESTIGATORS, IN MARCH 1996 WE DETERMINED THAT THE US 37TH ENGINEERING BATTALION HAD DESTROYED THAT BUNKER ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF OTHER BUNKERS ON MARCH 4,1991. HOWEVER, IT WAS NOT UNTIL UNSCOM'S MAY 1996 INSPECTION AT KHAMISIYAH THAT IT WAS DETERMINED THAT BUNKER 73 CONTAINED REMNANTS OF 122MM CHEMICAL ROCKETS--AGAIN THIS WAS A FACT THAT EARLIER INSPECTIONS LEFT UNCERTAIN. UNSCOM IN MAY 1996 DOCUMENTED THE PRESENCE OF HIGH DENSITY POLYETHYLENE INSERTS, BURSTER TUBES, FILL PLUGS, AND OTHER FEATURES CHARACTERISTIC OF IRAQI CHEMICAL MUNITIONS. THE ROCKETS HAD BEEN FILLED WITH A COMBINATION OF THE AGENTS SARIN AND GF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE CONTENTS OF THE ROCKETS UNSCOM FOUND IN 1991 IN THE PIT AREA JUST OUTSIDE THE KHAMISIYAH STORAGE AREA. IRAQ NOW CLAIMS TO HAVE MOVED 2,160 UNMARKED 122MM NERVE AGENT ROCKETS TO BUNKER 73 FROM THE AL MUTHANNA CW PRODUCTION AND STORAGE FACILITY JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE AIR WAR. ACCORDING TO IRAQ, ROCKETS STARTED LEAKING IMMEDIATELY, MOTIVATING THE IRAQIS TO MOVE 1,100 ROCKETS ONE-BY-ONE OUT OF THE BUNKER TO THE PIT AREA 2 KM AWAY, WHERE THEY WERE BURIED. DURING THE MAY 1996 INSPECTION, IRAQ ALSO TOLD UNSCOM THAT THE 6,000 155MM MUSTARD ROUNDS UNSCOM FOUND IN THE OPEN AREA AT KHAMISIYAH IN OCTOBER 1991 HAD BEEN STORED AT ONE BUNKER AT AN NASIRIYAH UNTIL 15 FEBRUARY 1991, JUST BEFORE THE GROUND WAR. IRAQ CLAIMS THAT FEAR OF COALITION BOMBING MOTIVATED AN NASIRIYAH DEPOT PERSONNEL TO MOVE THE INTACT MUSTARD ROUNDS TO THE OPEN AREA 5 KM FROM THE KHAMISIYAH DEPOT, WHERE THE ROUNDS WERE CAMOUFLAGED WITH CANVAS. MODELING OF RELEASE OF AGENTS FROM BUNKER 73 AT KHAMISIYAH MODELING OF THE POTENTIAL HAZARD CAUSED BY DESTRUCTION OF BUNKER 73 INDICATES THAT AN AREA AROUND THE BUNKER AT LEAST 2 KM IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND 4 KM DOWNWIND COULD HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED AT OR ABOVE THE LEVEL FOR CAUSING ACUTE SYMPTOMS INCLUDING RUNNY NOSE, HEADACHE, AND MIOSIS AS YOU SEE IN THIS FIGURE. AN AREA UP TO 25 KM DOWNWIND COULD HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED AT THE MUCH LOWER GENERAL POPULATION DOSAGE LIMIT.1 BASED ON WIND MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS OF A VIDEO OF DESTRUCTION ACTIVITY AT KHAMISIYAH, WE DETERMINED THAT THE DOWNWIND DIRECTION WAS NORTHEAST TO EAST. SOME OF THE FOLLOWING MODELING ASSUMPTIONS WERE BASED ON DATA FROM US TESTING IN 1966 THAT INVOLVED DESTRUCTION OF A BUNKER FILLED WITH 1,850 GB ROCKETS OF SIMILAR MAXIMUM, RANGE TO IRAQI ROCKETS FOUND IN BUNKER 73. 1,060 ROCKETS AS INDICATED BY IRAQ. ROCKETS FILLED WITH 8 KG OF A 2:1 RATIO OF GB TO GF (CONTENTS ASSUMED TO BE 100% AGENT) BASED ON UNSCOM INFORMATION AND SAMPLING FROM THE PIT. TEN PERCENT OF ROCKETS EJECTED FROM THE BUNKER, HALF OF WHICH RANDOMLY FALL WITHIN A 200 METER CIRCLE, THE OTHER HALF FALLING WITHIN A 2 KM CIRCLE BASED ON US TESTING. ALL BUT 2.5 PERCENT OF AGENT IN THE BUNKER DEGRADED BY HEAT FROM EXPLOSION AND MOTOR/CRATE BURNING BASED ON US TESTS. WINDS SLOW TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BASED ON MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF A VIDEOTAPE OF THE DESTRUCTION ACTIVITY AT KHAMISIYAH. OUR MODELS DO NOT INCLUDE EFFECTS OF THE REPORTED 32-37 CONVENTIONAL ORDNANCE BUNKERS DETONATING AND BURNING SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE CHEMICAL BUNKER. THE ADDED THERMAL ENERGY CREATED BY EXPLOSIONS AND FIRES IN THE OTHER BUNKERS AND SOLAR HEATING CAUSED BY THE INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SMOKE WOULD TEND TO DEGRADE AGENT AS WELL AS MORE QUICKLY FILL THE COLUMN OF AIR NEAR THE BUNKER TO AN ALTITUDE OF 800-1,200 METERS.2 THIS MORE RAPID VERTICAL SPREADING WOULD TEND TO LOWER GROUND CONTAMINATION IN THE AREA. CHEMICAL FALLOUT FROM AERIAL BOMBING IN IRAQ ON THE BASIS OF ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION, WE CONCLUDE THAT COALITION AERIAL BOMBING RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO FILLED CHEMICAL MUNITIONS AT TWO FACILITIES--MUHAMMADIYAT AND AL MUTHANNA-- BOTH LOCATED IN REMOTE AREAS WEST OF BAGHDAD.- OUR MODELING INDICATES THAT FALLOUT FROM THESE FACILITIES DID NOT REACH TROOPS IN SAUDI ARABIA. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT IRAQI DECLARATIONS, LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF LRAQ'S APPROXIMATELY 700 METRIC TONS OF CHEMICAL AGENT STOCKPILE WAS DESTROYED BY ____________________________ 1 THIS DOSAGE FROM ARMY MANUALS IS FOR PROTECTION OF THE GENERAL POPULATION AND IS A 72 HOUR EXPOSURE AT 0.000003 MG/M3--SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE 0.0001MG/M3 OCCUPATIONAL LIMIT DEFINED FOR 8 HOURS. 2 THIS ALTITUDE REPRESENTS THE ESTIMATED HEIGHT OF THE MIXING LAYER--THE LOWER TURBULENT PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WHICH AGENT TRANSPORT IS INHIBITED DUE TO A LAMINAR BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LAYER CAN OFTEN BE SEEN FROM AIRCRAFT WHILE LANDING IN CITIES WITH POLLUTED AIR. COALITION BOMBING. IN MOST CASES, THE IRAQIS DID NOT STORE CW MUNITIONS IN BUNKERS THAT THEY BELIEVED THE COALITION WOULD TARGET. THE IRAQIS STORED MANY OF THE CW MUNITIONS IN THE OPEN TO PROTECT THEM FROM COALITION DETECTION AND BOMBING. IN ADDITION, ALL KNOWN CW AND PRECURSOR PRODUCTION LINES WERE EITHER INACTIVE OR HAD BEEN DISMANTLED BY THE START OF THE AIR CAMPAIGN. BOMBING OF AN NASIRIYAH STORAGE AREA SW ON 17 JANUARY 1991 DID NOT PRODUCE ANY CHEMICAL AGENT FALLOUT. IN MAY 1996, UNSCOM INSPECTORS INSPECTED THE BUNKERS AT THE SITE AND WERE ABLE TO DISCOVER THAT, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, THE BUNKERS HAD CONTAINED CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS. ACCORDING TO IRAQ, ONE BUNKER DID CONTAIN 6,000 MUSTARD ROUNDS ON 17 JANUARY--CALLED BUNKER 8 BY IRAQ--BUT WAS UNTOUCHED THROUGHOUT THE WAR BY AERIAL BOMBING. AS I DISCUSSED EARLIER, THESE MUSTARD ROUNDS BEGAN TO BE MOVED TO AN OPEN AREA NEAR KHAMISIYAH ON 15 FEBRUARY 1991. AT MUHAMMADIYAT (US NAME QUBAYSAH) STORAGE AREA, IRAQ DECLARED THAT 200 MUSTARD-FILLED AND 12 SARIN-FILLED AERIAL BOMBS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED BY COALITION BOMBING. WE HAVE MODELED THE CONTAMINATED AREA RESULTING FROM BOMBING OF MUHAMMADIYAT, A SITE AT LEAST 410 KM FROM US TROOPS STATIONED AT RAFHA AND EVEN FURTHER FROM THE BULK OF US TROOPS. BOMBING OF THIS FACILITY STARTED ON 19 JANUARY AND CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE AIR WAR. WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHEMICAL BOMBS WERE DESTROYED. BASED ON RECENT IRAQI DECLARATIONS, WE HAVE MODELED RELEASE OF 2.9 METRIC TONS OF SARIN AND 15 METRIC TONS OF MUSTARD FOR ALL POSSIBLE BOMBING DATES. FOR THESE DAYS, AS FOR THE WHOLE TIME PERIOD OF THE BOMBING, SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCUR ON ONLY A FEW DAYS. THE FOLLOWING FIGURES SHOW THAT FOR GENERAL POPULATION LIMIT DOSAGES (ABOVE 0.013 MG-MIN/M3), MAXIMUM DOWNWIND DISPERSIONS IN THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SARIN AND MUSTARD CUT OFF AT ABOUT 300 AND 130 KM RESPECTIVELY. FOR NERVE AGENT FIRST EFFECTS LEVELS-- APPROXIMATELY THE LEVEL THAT US M8A1 UNITS ARE SET TO ALARM-- THE MAXIMUM DOWNWIND DISTANCE IS 75 KM. NEITHER THE FIRST EFFECTS NOR THE GENERAL POPULATION LIMIT LEVELS REACHED US TROOPS THAT WERE STATIONED IN SAUDI ARABIA. WHEN PREDICTING VERY LOW CONCENTRATION LEVELS FAR DOWNRANGE OF THE SOURCE, LARGE DISPERSIONS ARE CREATED THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO MODEL. HOWEVER, WE ASSESS THAT OUR RESULTS ARE CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE OPTIMAL TIMES AND DATES TO PRODUCE THE MAXIMUM DISPERSION TOWARDS SAUDI ARABIA WERE CHOSEN. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR PHENOMENA--SUCH AS DEPOSITION ONTO THE GROUND AND RAIN REMOVAL OF AGENT--THAT WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH POTENTIAL DOWNWIND EXPOSURE. AT AL MUTHANNA (US NAME SAMARRA), THE PRIMARY IRAQI CW PRODUCTION AND STORAGE FACILITY, IRAQ DECLARED THAT 2,500 CHEMICAL ROCKETS CONTAINING ABOUT 17 METRIC TONS OF SARIN NERVE AGENT HAD BEEN DESTROYED BY COALITION BOMBING. UNSCOM INSPECTORS WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY THE EXACT NUMBER BECAUSE OF DAMAGE TO THE ROCKETS. WE HAVE MODELED THE POSSIBLE BOMBING DATES FOR THIS SINGLE BUNKER AND DETERMINED THAT FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION LIMIT DOSAGE THE MOST SOUTHERLY DISPERSION IS 160 KM, AGAIN WELL SHORT OF US TROOPS. FINALLY, WE HAVE FOUND NO INFORMATION TO SUGGEST THAT CASUALTIES OCCURRED INSIDE IRAQ AS A RESULT OF CW AGENTS RELEASED FROM THE BOMBING OF THESE SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THESE TWO FACILITIES ARE IN REMOTE LOCATIONS FAR FROM ANY POPULATION CENTERS. THE MUHAMMADIYAT AND AL MUTHANNA SITES ARE BOTH OVER 30 KM FROM THE NEAREST IRAQI TOWNS. CLOSING STATEMENT WE HAVE COMPLETED THE MAIN PART OF OUR REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE AND ARE SUBMITTING A FINAL REPORT TO YOU IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS THAT WILL ALSO GO OUT ON GULFLINK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN TRACKING ANY LEAD THAT SURFACES IN THE FUTURE. IF WE FIND ANY INFORMATION POINTING TO CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL AGENT EXPOSURES OR IMPACTING SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE ISSUE OF GULF WAR VETERANS' ILLNESSES, WE WILL AGAIN WORK WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TO ANNOUNCE THOSE FINDINGS. 77501:77501
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