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File: 092596_cia_77501_77501_01.txt
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Subject: CIA BRIEFING BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 9 JULY 1996

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







CIA BRIEFING BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 9 JULY 1996



DR. LASHOF, MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE, WE ARE PLEASED TO APPEAR

BEFORE YOU THIS MORNING TO DISCUSS OUR ONGOING EFFORTS RELATED TO

REPORTS OF POSSIBLE EXPOSURE OF OUR TROOPS TO CHEMICAL OR

BIOLOGICAL AGENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF. OUR DIRECTOR STRONGLY

SUPPORTS CIA'S WORK ON THIS IMPORTANT ISSUE AND CONTINUES TO

ENCOURAGE US TO BRING FORTH IMPORTANT RESULTS OF OUR STUDY.

TODAY WE WILL PROVIDE OUR KEY FINDINGS AND SOME NEW

INFORMATION REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF CHEMICAL AGENTS AT

KHAMISIYAH, MUHAMMADIYAT, AND AL MUTHANNA.



KEY FINDINGS



FIRST, OUR KEY FINDINGS. WE CONCLUDE THAT IRAQ DID NOT USE

CHEMICAL AGENTS NOR WERE ANY AGENTS LOCATED IN KUWAIT. IN

ADDITION, ON THE BASIS OF INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AND

MODELING TO DATE, WE ASSESS THAT US TROOPS WERE NOT EXPOSED TO

CHEMICAL AGENT RELEASED BY AERIAL BOMBING OF IRAQI FACILITIES.

HOWEVER, WE HAVE IDENTIFIED AND WILL DISCUSS POTENTIAL FALLOUT

CONCERNS IN THE CASE OF A REAR-AREA CHEMICAL WEAPONS STORAGE

BUNKER IN SOUTHERN IRAQ THAT WAS DESTROYED BY US GROUND TROOPS

SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THE WAR.



CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN KUWAIT THEATER OF OPERATIONS



WE CONCLUDE THAT IRAQ HAD CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT TWO SITES IN IRAQ

WITHIN THE KUWAIT THEATER OF OPERATIONS (KTO). CHEMICAL

WEAPONS WERE DESTROYED BY US FORCES AT ONE OF THESE--THE

KHAMISIYAH (US NAME TALL AL LAHM) AMMUNITION STORAGE AREA.

BOTH KHAMISIYAH AND THE SECOND SITE--THE AN NASIRIYAH

AMMUNITION STORAGE DEPOT SW--WERE LARGE REAR-AREA DEPOTS NEAR

THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE KTO IN IRAQ AND STORED MOSTLY

CONVENTIONAL AMMUNITION.



UNSCOM INSPECTED CHEMICAL MUNITIONS AT OR NEAR KHAMISIYAH IN

OCTOBER 1991 AND IDENTIFIED 122MM SARIN/CYCLO-SARIN (GB/GF)

NERVE AGENT-FILLED ROCKETS AND 155MM MUSTARD ROUNDS. AT THE

TIME IT WAS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IDENTIFIED

HAD BEEN PRESENT DURING THE WAR OR WHETHER, AS WAS SUSPECTED AT

OTHER LOCATIONS, THE IRAQIS HAD MOVED THE MUNITIONS AFTER THE WAR

AND JUST PRIOR TO THE 1991 UNSCOM INSPECTION. THIS UNCERTAINTY

WAS ONLY CLEARED UP THROUGH THE RECENT COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF

ALL INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION AND AN UNSCOM INSPECTION IN  MAY

1996. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED BY UNSCOM

DURING ITS OCTOBER 1991 INSPECTION.



AT A PIT AREA ABOUT 1 KM SOUTH OF THE KHAMISIYAH STORAGE

AREA, UNSCOM FOUND SEVERAL HUNDRED MOSTLY INTACT 122MM

ROCKETS CONTAINING NERVE AGENT--DETECTED BY SAMPLING AND WITH

CHEMICAL AGENT MONITORS (CAMS).



IN AN OPEN AREA 5 KM WEST OF KHAMISIYAH; INSPECTORS FOUND

APPROXIMATELY 6,000 INTACT 155MM ROUNDS CONTAINING MUSTARD

AGENT, AS INDICATED BY CAMS.



AT A THIRD LOCATION, A SINGLE BUNKER AMONG 100 BUNKERS, CALLED

"BUNKER 73" BY IRAQ, REMNANTS OF 122MM ROCKETS WERE

IDENTIFIED.



THE 1991 INSPECTION, AND ALSO A 1992 INSPECTION IN WHICH

UNSCOM DESTROYED ROCKETS IN THE PIT, LEFT UNCERTAINTY AS TO

WHETHER THE MUNITIONS IN BUNKER 73 WERE CHEMICAL BECAUSE THERE

WAS NO SAMPLING OR POSITIVE CAM READINGS AND INSPECTORS DID

NOT DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF CHEMICAL MUNITIONS.



THE IRAQIS CLAIMED DURING THE OCTOBER 1991 INSPECTION THAT

COALITION TROOPS HAD DESTROYED BUNKER 73 EARLIER THAT YEAR. THESE

IRAQI STATEMENTS WERE VIEWED AT THE TIME WITH SKEPTICISM BECAUSE

OF THE BROAD, CONTINUOUS USE OF DECEPTION BY THE IRAQIS AGAINST

UNSCOM. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DOD INVESTIGATORS, IN MARCH 1996

WE DETERMINED THAT THE US 37TH ENGINEERING BATTALION HAD

DESTROYED THAT BUNKER ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF OTHER BUNKERS ON

MARCH 4,1991. HOWEVER, IT WAS NOT UNTIL UNSCOM'S MAY 1996

INSPECTION AT KHAMISIYAH THAT IT WAS DETERMINED THAT BUNKER 73

CONTAINED REMNANTS OF 122MM CHEMICAL ROCKETS--AGAIN THIS WAS

A FACT THAT EARLIER INSPECTIONS LEFT UNCERTAIN. UNSCOM IN MAY

1996 DOCUMENTED THE PRESENCE OF HIGH DENSITY POLYETHYLENE

INSERTS, BURSTER TUBES, FILL PLUGS, AND OTHER FEATURES CHARACTERISTIC

OF IRAQI CHEMICAL MUNITIONS. THE ROCKETS HAD BEEN FILLED WITH A

COMBINATION OF THE AGENTS SARIN AND GF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE

CONTENTS OF THE ROCKETS UNSCOM FOUND IN 1991 IN THE PIT AREA JUST

OUTSIDE THE KHAMISIYAH STORAGE AREA.



IRAQ NOW CLAIMS TO HAVE MOVED 2,160 UNMARKED 122MM NERVE

AGENT ROCKETS TO BUNKER 73 FROM THE AL MUTHANNA CW PRODUCTION

AND STORAGE FACILITY JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE AIR WAR.

ACCORDING TO IRAQ, ROCKETS STARTED LEAKING IMMEDIATELY,

MOTIVATING THE IRAQIS TO MOVE 1,100 ROCKETS ONE-BY-ONE OUT OF THE

BUNKER TO THE PIT AREA 2 KM AWAY, WHERE THEY WERE BURIED.



DURING THE MAY 1996 INSPECTION, IRAQ ALSO TOLD UNSCOM THAT THE

6,000 155MM MUSTARD ROUNDS UNSCOM FOUND IN THE OPEN AREA AT

KHAMISIYAH IN OCTOBER 1991 HAD BEEN STORED AT ONE BUNKER AT AN

NASIRIYAH UNTIL 15 FEBRUARY 1991, JUST BEFORE THE GROUND WAR. IRAQ

CLAIMS THAT FEAR OF COALITION BOMBING MOTIVATED AN NASIRIYAH

DEPOT PERSONNEL TO MOVE THE INTACT MUSTARD ROUNDS TO THE OPEN

AREA 5 KM FROM THE KHAMISIYAH DEPOT, WHERE THE ROUNDS WERE

CAMOUFLAGED WITH CANVAS.



MODELING OF RELEASE OF AGENTS FROM BUNKER 73 AT KHAMISIYAH



MODELING OF THE POTENTIAL HAZARD CAUSED BY DESTRUCTION OF BUNKER

73 INDICATES THAT AN AREA AROUND THE BUNKER AT LEAST 2 KM IN ALL

DIRECTIONS AND 4 KM DOWNWIND COULD HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED AT

OR ABOVE THE LEVEL FOR CAUSING ACUTE SYMPTOMS INCLUDING RUNNY

NOSE, HEADACHE, AND MIOSIS AS YOU SEE IN THIS FIGURE. AN AREA UP

TO 25 KM DOWNWIND COULD HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED AT THE MUCH

LOWER GENERAL POPULATION DOSAGE LIMIT.1  BASED ON WIND MODELS

AND OBSERVATIONS OF A VIDEO OF DESTRUCTION ACTIVITY AT KHAMISIYAH,

WE DETERMINED THAT THE DOWNWIND DIRECTION WAS NORTHEAST TO

EAST.



SOME OF THE FOLLOWING MODELING ASSUMPTIONS WERE BASED ON DATA

FROM US TESTING IN 1966 THAT INVOLVED DESTRUCTION OF A BUNKER

FILLED WITH 1,850 GB ROCKETS OF SIMILAR MAXIMUM, RANGE TO IRAQI

ROCKETS FOUND IN BUNKER 73.



1,060 ROCKETS AS INDICATED BY IRAQ.

ROCKETS FILLED WITH 8 KG OF A 2:1 RATIO OF GB TO GF (CONTENTS

ASSUMED TO BE 100% AGENT) BASED ON UNSCOM INFORMATION

AND SAMPLING FROM THE PIT.

TEN PERCENT OF ROCKETS EJECTED FROM THE BUNKER, HALF  OF  WHICH

RANDOMLY FALL WITHIN A 200 METER CIRCLE, THE OTHER HALF FALLING

WITHIN A 2 KM CIRCLE BASED ON US TESTING.

ALL BUT 2.5 PERCENT OF AGENT IN THE BUNKER DEGRADED BY HEAT

FROM EXPLOSION AND MOTOR/CRATE BURNING BASED ON US TESTS.

WINDS SLOW TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BASED ON MODELING AND

ANALYSIS OF A VIDEOTAPE OF THE DESTRUCTION ACTIVITY AT

KHAMISIYAH.



OUR MODELS DO NOT INCLUDE EFFECTS OF THE REPORTED 32-37

CONVENTIONAL ORDNANCE BUNKERS DETONATING AND BURNING

SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE CHEMICAL BUNKER. THE ADDED THERMAL

ENERGY CREATED BY EXPLOSIONS AND FIRES IN THE OTHER  BUNKERS  AND

SOLAR HEATING CAUSED BY THE  INCREASED  AMOUNTS  OF  SMOKE  WOULD

TEND TO DEGRADE AGENT AS WELL AS MORE QUICKLY FILL THE COLUMN  OF

AIR NEAR THE BUNKER TO AN ALTITUDE OF 800-1,200 METERS.2  THIS MORE

RAPID VERTICAL SPREADING WOULD TEND TO LOWER GROUND

CONTAMINATION IN THE AREA.



CHEMICAL FALLOUT FROM AERIAL BOMBING IN IRAQ



ON THE BASIS OF ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION, WE CONCLUDE  THAT

COALITION AERIAL BOMBING RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO FILLED CHEMICAL

MUNITIONS AT TWO FACILITIES--MUHAMMADIYAT AND AL MUTHANNA--

BOTH LOCATED IN REMOTE AREAS WEST OF BAGHDAD.- OUR MODELING

INDICATES THAT FALLOUT FROM THESE FACILITIES DID NOT REACH TROOPS

IN SAUDI ARABIA. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT IRAQI

DECLARATIONS, LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF LRAQ'S APPROXIMATELY 700

METRIC TONS OF CHEMICAL AGENT  STOCKPILE  WAS  DESTROYED  BY

____________________________

1 THIS DOSAGE FROM ARMY MANUALS IS FOR PROTECTION OF THE GENERAL

POPULATION AND IS A 72 HOUR EXPOSURE AT 0.000003  MG/M3--SIGNIFICANTLY

LOWER THAN THE 0.0001MG/M3 OCCUPATIONAL LIMIT DEFINED FOR 8 HOURS.

2 THIS ALTITUDE REPRESENTS THE ESTIMATED HEIGHT OF THE MIXING LAYER--THE

LOWER TURBULENT PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WHICH AGENT TRANSPORT  IS

INHIBITED DUE TO A LAMINAR BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS LAYER CAN OFTEN BE SEEN

FROM AIRCRAFT WHILE LANDING IN CITIES WITH POLLUTED AIR.







COALITION BOMBING. IN MOST CASES, THE IRAQIS DID NOT STORE CW

MUNITIONS IN BUNKERS THAT THEY BELIEVED THE COALITION WOULD

TARGET. THE IRAQIS STORED MANY OF THE CW  MUNITIONS  IN  THE

OPEN TO PROTECT THEM FROM COALITION DETECTION AND BOMBING.

IN ADDITION, ALL KNOWN CW AND PRECURSOR PRODUCTION LINES

WERE EITHER INACTIVE OR HAD BEEN DISMANTLED BY THE START OF THE

AIR CAMPAIGN.



BOMBING OF AN NASIRIYAH STORAGE AREA SW ON 17 JANUARY 1991

DID NOT PRODUCE ANY CHEMICAL AGENT FALLOUT. IN MAY 1996,

UNSCOM INSPECTORS INSPECTED THE BUNKERS AT THE SITE AND WERE

ABLE TO DISCOVER THAT, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, THE  BUNKERS  HAD

CONTAINED CONVENTIONAL  WEAPONS.  ACCORDING  TO  IRAQ,  ONE  BUNKER

DID CONTAIN 6,000 MUSTARD ROUNDS ON  17  JANUARY--CALLED  BUNKER  8

BY IRAQ--BUT WAS UNTOUCHED THROUGHOUT THE WAR BY AERIAL

BOMBING. AS I DISCUSSED EARLIER,  THESE  MUSTARD  ROUNDS  BEGAN  TO

BE MOVED TO AN OPEN AREA  NEAR  KHAMISIYAH  ON  15  FEBRUARY  1991.



AT  MUHAMMADIYAT  (US  NAME  QUBAYSAH)  STORAGE  AREA,  IRAQ

DECLARED THAT 200 MUSTARD-FILLED AND 12 SARIN-FILLED AERIAL

BOMBS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED BY COALITION BOMBING. WE

HAVE MODELED THE CONTAMINATED AREA RESULTING FROM BOMBING

OF MUHAMMADIYAT, A SITE AT LEAST 410 KM FROM US TROOPS

STATIONED AT RAFHA AND EVEN FURTHER FROM THE BULK OF US

TROOPS. BOMBING OF THIS FACILITY STARTED ON 19 JANUARY AND

CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE AIR WAR. WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO

DETERMINE  EXACTLY  WHEN  THE  CHEMICAL  BOMBS   WERE   DESTROYED.

BASED ON  RECENT  IRAQI  DECLARATIONS,  WE  HAVE  MODELED  RELEASE

OF 2.9 METRIC TONS OF SARIN AND 15  METRIC  TONS  OF  MUSTARD  FOR

ALL POSSIBLE BOMBING DATES. FOR  THESE  DAYS,  AS  FOR  THE  WHOLE

TIME PERIOD OF THE  BOMBING,  SOUTHERLY  WINDS  OCCUR  ON  ONLY  A

FEW DAYS. THE FOLLOWING FIGURES SHOW THAT FOR GENERAL

POPULATION  LIMIT  DOSAGES  (ABOVE   0.013   MG-MIN/M3),   MAXIMUM

DOWNWIND  DISPERSIONS  IN  THE  GENERAL  SOUTHERLY  DIRECTION  FOR

SARIN AND MUSTARD CUT OFF AT ABOUT 300 AND 130 KM

RESPECTIVELY. FOR NERVE AGENT FIRST EFFECTS LEVELS--

APPROXIMATELY THE LEVEL THAT US M8A1  UNITS  ARE  SET  TO  ALARM--

THE MAXIMUM DOWNWIND DISTANCE IS 75 KM.



NEITHER THE FIRST EFFECTS NOR THE GENERAL POPULATION LIMIT  LEVELS

REACHED US TROOPS  THAT  WERE  STATIONED  IN  SAUDI  ARABIA.  WHEN

PREDICTING VERY LOW CONCENTRATION  LEVELS  FAR  DOWNRANGE  OF  THE

SOURCE, LARGE DISPERSIONS ARE CREATED THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO

MODEL. HOWEVER,  WE  ASSESS  THAT  OUR  RESULTS  ARE  CONSERVATIVE

BECAUSE OPTIMAL TIMES AND DATES TO PRODUCE THE MAXIMUM

DISPERSION TOWARDS SAUDI ARABIA WERE CHOSEN. IN ADDITION,

THE MODELS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR PHENOMENA--SUCH AS

DEPOSITION ONTO THE GROUND AND RAIN REMOVAL OF AGENT--THAT

WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH POTENTIAL DOWNWIND EXPOSURE.



AT AL MUTHANNA (US NAME SAMARRA), THE PRIMARY IRAQI CW

PRODUCTION AND STORAGE FACILITY, IRAQ DECLARED THAT 2,500 CHEMICAL

ROCKETS CONTAINING ABOUT 17 METRIC TONS OF SARIN NERVE AGENT HAD

BEEN DESTROYED BY COALITION BOMBING. UNSCOM INSPECTORS WERE

UNABLE TO VERIFY THE EXACT NUMBER BECAUSE OF DAMAGE TO THE

ROCKETS. WE HAVE MODELED  THE  POSSIBLE  BOMBING  DATES  FOR  THIS

SINGLE BUNKER AND DETERMINED THAT FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION LIMIT

DOSAGE THE MOST SOUTHERLY DISPERSION IS 160 KM, AGAIN WELL SHORT

OF US TROOPS.



FINALLY, WE HAVE FOUND NO INFORMATION TO SUGGEST THAT

CASUALTIES OCCURRED INSIDE IRAQ AS A RESULT OF CW AGENTS

RELEASED FROM THE BOMBING OF THESE SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY

BECAUSE THESE TWO FACILITIES ARE IN REMOTE LOCATIONS FAR FROM

ANY POPULATION CENTERS. THE MUHAMMADIYAT AND AL MUTHANNA

SITES ARE BOTH OVER 30 KM FROM THE NEAREST IRAQI TOWNS.



CLOSING STATEMENT



WE HAVE COMPLETED THE MAIN PART OF OUR REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE

AND ARE SUBMITTING A FINAL REPORT TO YOU IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF

WEEKS THAT WILL ALSO GO OUT ON GULFLINK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE

VIGILANT IN TRACKING ANY LEAD THAT SURFACES IN THE FUTURE. IF WE

FIND ANY INFORMATION POINTING TO CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL AGENT

EXPOSURES OR IMPACTING SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE ISSUE OF GULF WAR

VETERANS' ILLNESSES, WE WILL AGAIN WORK WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF

DEFENSE TO ANNOUNCE THOSE FINDINGS.







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