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File: 970613_01211010_90_txt_0001.txt
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/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/

SUBJECT:  IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION UPDATE.         
DOI:  21 JAN 91 (AS OF 0100 EST)
))
MAJOR POINTS
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1.          IRAQ LAUNCHED AT LEAST EIGHT SRBMS AT SAUDI ARABIA.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]




4.             DEVELOPING SITUATION. [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]  ON 21JANUARY, AT
LEAST EIGHT SRBMS WERE LAUNCHED FROM SOUTHERN IRAQ.  AT LEAST TWO,
AND POSSIBLY THREE, SRBMS WERE LAUNCHED FROM THE VICINITY OF QURNAH
SOUTH SRBM FACILITY (31-00N 047-30E) [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]   ON 20JANUARY.  ALL
MISSILES WERE REPORTEDLY DESTROYED BY PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE MISSILES
IN THE VICINITY OF DHAHRAN, SAUD1 ARABIA. [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]     
ANOTHER SIX SRBMS WERE FIRED, TWO WERE FIRED AT DHAHRAN AGAIN FROM
THE VICINITY OF QURNAH, AND FOUR SRBMS CAME FROM THE VICINITY OF  [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]
                 THE NORTHERN KUWAIT/IRAQ BORDER AGAINST RIYADH. AT
LEAST FIVE OF THESE MISSILES WERE REPORTEDLY DESTROYED BY PATRIOTS
AND ONE APPARENTLY IMPACTED IN THE VICINITY OF RIYADH. DAMAGE IS
UNKNOWN.  COMMENT:  BAGHDAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT STRIKES
AGAINST COALITION FORCES IN SAUDI ARABIA AND COULD LAUNCH FURTHER
MISSILES AT ISRAEL.                                                 [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]   



MISSILE/CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY.  AN EARLIER
ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN REAFFIRMED THAT A LIMITED NUMBER OF CHEMICAL
WARHEADS ARE AVAILABLE FOR IRAQ'S SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES, MOST
LIKELY FILLED WITH THE SEMI-PERSISTENT NERVE AGENT GF OR THE
PERSISTENT BLISTER AGENT MUSTARD.  IT IS BELIEVED THESE WARHEADS
WOULD HAVE LITTLE MILITARY VALUE, GIVEN IRAQ'S PAST PROBLEMS WITH
APPROPRIATE FUSING AND THE LIMITED ACCURACY OF THE SYSTEMS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEMS.  THEY WOULD BE MORE
EFFECTIVE IF USED AGAINST CIVILIAN TARGETS.  SINCE THERE ARE ONLY
LIMITED WARHEADS AVAILABLE, AND SINCE USE OF CHEMICALS WOULD BESEEN
AS AN ESCALATION BY COALITION FORCES, IRAQ HAS THUS FAR REFRAINED
FROM USING CHEMICALS.  IT IS UNLIKELY THAT RECENT AIR ATTACKS ON
IRAQI STRATEGIC CHEMICAL PRODUCTION AND STORAGE FACILITIES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED IRAQI TACTICAL CAPABILITIES TO DELIVER
CHEMICALS
[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]




[b.2.]

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